Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Sociedad v Alavés

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Sociedad (Local)

Prediction 50.53%1.98fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.74%50.61%50.59%51.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.861.871.9357.80%53.88%53.48%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alavés (Visit)

Prediction 23.07%4.34fair odd
EV +1.96%
Edge +0.443%
Kelly +0.573%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.84%23.02%23.03%24.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.114.144.4227.03%24.30%24.15%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.41%3.79fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.403%
Kelly -0.551%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.12%26.37%26.38%27.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.563.603.7332.26%28.05%27.78%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Sociedad (Local): 50.53%; Alavés (Visit): 23.07%; Draw: 26.41%. For Alavés (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.67%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.86%EV +1.96%E +0.443%K +0.573%G +0.011%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.47%EV -3.62%E -0.991%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.09%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.18%EV +1.50%E +0.341%K +0.441%G +0.007%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%EV -3.62%E -0.991%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-11 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.31%EV -4.51%E -2.38%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV +1.50%E +0.341%K +0.441%G +0.007%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.64%EV -3.88%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 11:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.62%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +1.50%E +0.341%K +0.441%G +0.007%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -3.62%E -0.991%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-11 11:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.62%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +1.50%E +0.341%K +0.441%G +0.007%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -3.62%E -0.991%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-11 11:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.62%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.94%EV +1.50%E +0.341%K +0.441%G +0.007%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -3.62%E -0.991%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-11 11:50
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.09%EV -4.00%E -2.11%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV +0.345%E +0.079%K +0.103%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV -3.62%E -0.991%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-11 11:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.64%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.49%EV -0.808%E -0.188%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.87%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 11:30
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -0.808%E -0.188%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 11:50
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -0.808%E -0.188%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 11:50
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -0.808%E -0.188%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 11:50
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV -0.808%E -0.188%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 11:49
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.32%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -0.808%E -0.188%K -0.245%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 11:50
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46%EV -1.96%E -0.462%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 11:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -8.04%E -4.42%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -1.96%E -0.462%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -6.26%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 11:50
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -8.04%E -4.42%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -1.96%E -0.462%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -6.26%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 11:50
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -8.04%E -4.42%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -1.96%E -0.462%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -6.26%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 11:49
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.66%EV -8.55%E -4.72%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -1.96%E -0.462%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -6.26%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 11:49
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.28%EV -2.49%E -1.29%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.99%EV -2.65%E -0.629%K -0.824%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.73%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 11:45
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.08%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -3.11%E -0.742%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17%EV -3.62%E -0.991%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-11 11:49
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.52%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -3.11%E -0.742%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 11:49
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -3.11%E -0.742%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 11:49
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.11%E -0.742%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 11:50
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -3.11%E -0.742%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 11:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -3.11%E -0.742%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 11:50
LeoVegas🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.55%EV -10.06%E -5.65%K -12.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -3.11%E -0.742%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 11:49
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.17%EV -4.00%E -2.11%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.97%EV -4.27%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -6.26%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 11:49
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.17%EV -4.00%E -2.11%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.97%EV -4.27%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -6.26%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 11:50
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -2.99%E -1.56%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.44%EV -4.50%E -1.09%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 26.02%EV -1.50%E -0.403%K -0.551%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-11 11:49
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.22%EV -4.00%E -2.11%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.27%EV -5.42%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 11:50
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -5.42%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -5.42%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.30%E -0.621%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 11:50
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -5.42%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 11:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.36%EV -6.58%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.06%EV -4.15%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 11:48
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 11:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -4.00%E -2.11%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 11:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.38%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -3.62%E -0.991%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 11:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 11:48
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 11:49
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 11:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -2.30%E -0.621%K -0.851%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 11:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.73%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 11:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.62%EV -8.55%E -4.72%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.88%E -2.25%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 11:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.62%EV -8.55%E -4.72%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.88%E -2.25%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 11:49
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -8.88%E -2.25%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -8.90%E -2.58%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 11:49
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -10.04%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -2.30%E -0.621%K -0.851%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 11:49
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -10.04%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -10.22%E -3.01%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 11:30
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -10.04%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 11:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.52%EV -8.04%E -4.42%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -10.04%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -6.26%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-11 11:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -10.04%E -2.57%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 11:49
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.50%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -11.19%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 11:49
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -12.34%E -3.25%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -7.58%E -2.17%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-11 11:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -4.00%E -2.11%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -13.50%E -3.60%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 11:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.52%EV -12.59%E -7.28%K -17.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.85%EV -13.50%E -3.60%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -18.14%E -5.85%K -8.64%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-11 11:50
Bet Right🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -14.65%E -3.96%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.88I 53.19%NM 52.96%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.4%2026-04-11 11:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.27%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-04-11 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-04-11 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.45%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.07%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-04-11 11:50
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.46%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.79%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-04-11 11:50
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 52.17%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.32%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.51%2.0%2026-04-11 11:50