Language:English
Real Madrid v Málaga
Head to Head
Real Madrid (Local)
Prediction 79.86%1.25fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -7.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.10%79.83%79.46%80.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2389.29%85.23%85.47%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Málaga (Visit)
Prediction 7.44%13.44fair odd
EV +11.59%
Edge +0.773%
Kelly +0.828%
Growth +0.096%
assuming max odds 15.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.21%7.60%7.57%9.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5012.5212.8815.0010.53%7.99%7.77%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.70%7.87fair odd
EV +4.18%
Edge +0.510%
Kelly +0.580%
Growth +0.024%
assuming max odds 8.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.50%12.57%12.98%16.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.757.197.008.2017.39%13.91%14.29%12.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Real Madrid (Local): 79.86%; Málaga (Visit): 7.44%; Draw: 12.70%. For Málaga (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.44. 6 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 15.00, producing a positive expected value of +11.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.60%EV -4.17%E -3.48%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +11.59%E +0.773%K +0.828%G +0.096% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -26.95%E -4.69%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 17:43 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.04%EV -1.78%E -1.45%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 14.40I 6.94%NM 6.84%EV +7.13%E +0.495%K +0.532%G +0.038% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 13.13%EV -4.71%E -0.629%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-08-23 16:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.10%EV -3.37%E -2.79%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.80%EV +6.01%E +0.422%K +0.454%G +0.027% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.10%EV -5.98%E -0.809%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-23 16:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.67%EV -5.77%E -4.89%K -32.06%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.80%EV +4.15%E +0.297%K +0.319%G +0.013% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.53%EV -3.44%E -0.453%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-23 18:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.54%EV -5.77%E -4.89%K -32.06%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +4.15%E +0.297%K +0.319%G +0.013% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.67%EV -4.71%E -0.629%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-23 16:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -6.57%E -5.61%K -38.64%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV +4.15%E +0.297%K +0.319%G +0.013% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -11.07%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-23 18:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.77%E -4.89%K -32.06%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -3.29%E -0.253%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -4.71%E -0.629%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-23 16:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.77%EV -5.77%E -4.89%K -32.06%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV -3.29%E -0.253%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -7.89%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-23 16:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -5.77%E -4.89%K -32.06%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -3.29%E -0.253%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -11.07%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-23 18:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.57%E -5.61%K -38.64%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -3.29%E -0.253%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -11.07%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 16:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -6.57%E -5.61%K -38.64%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -3.29%E -0.253%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -11.07%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 16:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.96%EV -8.96%E -7.86%K -64.03%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -3.29%E -0.253%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -11.07%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-23 16:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.71%EV -8.17%E -7.10%K -54.44%G +0.000% | 12.75I 7.84%NM 7.19%EV -5.15%E -0.404%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -11.07%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-23 18:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -4.17%E -3.48%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -10.73%E -0.894%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -11.07%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -4.17%E -3.48%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -10.73%E -0.894%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -11.07%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -6.57%E -5.61%K -38.64%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.86%EV -10.73%E -0.894%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.50%EV +4.18%E +0.510%K +0.580%G +0.024% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 16:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -6.57%E -5.61%K -38.64%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -10.73%E -0.894%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -11.07%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-23 16:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -8.17%E -7.10%K -54.44%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -10.73%E -0.894%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -11.07%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-23 16:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.88%EV -8.96%E -7.86%K -64.03%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.49%EV -10.73%E -0.894%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.62%EV -16.15%E -2.45%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-23 18:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.65%EV -7.37%E -6.35%K -46.05%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.03%EV -14.45%E -1.26%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -4.71%E -0.629%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-23 18:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.83%EV -5.77%E -4.89%K -32.06%G +0.000% | 11.15I 8.97%NM 8.45%EV -17.05%E -1.53%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 8.04I 12.44%NM 11.72%EV +2.15%E +0.267%K +0.305%G +0.007% | 6.2% | 2026-08-23 17:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.16%EV -6.57%E -5.61%K -38.64%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -25.60%E -2.56%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV +1.64%E +0.205%K +0.234%G +0.004% | 8.0% | 2026-08-23 18:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.70%EV -7.37%E -6.35%K -46.05%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -25.60%E -2.56%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -4.71%E -0.629%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-23 17:43 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 77.10%EV -10.56%E -9.43%K -88.01%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.09%EV -29.32%E -3.09%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 13.82%EV -20.59%E -3.30%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-08-23 18:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.95% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.27% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.78% | 2.9% | 2026-08-23 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.95% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.27% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.78% | 2.9% | 2026-08-23 16:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.95% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.27% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.78% | 2.9% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.95% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.27% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.78% | 2.9% | 2026-08-23 16:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.64% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.77% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.58% | 3.3% | 2026-08-23 17:45 |