La escuela de los momios

Mallorca v Valencia

Inicio: 2026-04-21 17:02 UTC

Final: Mallorca 1–1 Valencia

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Mallorca (Local)

Predicción 35.16%2.84momio equitativo
EV -0.859%
Ventaja -0.305%
Kelly -0.472%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.08%35.25%35.19%36.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.652.622.8240.00%37.79%38.17%35.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Valencia (Visitante)

Predicción 34.63%2.89momio equitativo
EV +2.17%
Ventaja +0.736%
Kelly +1.11%
Crecimiento +0.024%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.60%34.59%34.55%35.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.762.752.9541.67%36.27%36.36%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.21%3.31momio equitativo
EV +2.71%
Ventaja +0.798%
Kelly +1.13%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.85%30.16%30.27%31.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.123.103.4035.71%32.05%32.26%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV +2.71%E +0.798%K +1.13%G +0.031%5.6%2026-04-21 17:01
1xBet2.74I 36.50%NM 35.46%EV -3.67%E -1.34%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.46%EV -5.10%E -1.86%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.09%EV +0.901%E +0.270%K +0.385%G +0.003%2.9%2026-04-21 16:59
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -9.95%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -0.308%E -0.093%K -0.134%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 17:01
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 35.40%EV -5.78%E -2.16%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.40%EV -7.18%E -2.68%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.82%E -0.559%K -0.808%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 17:00
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 35.40%EV -5.78%E -2.16%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.40%EV -7.18%E -2.68%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.82%E -0.559%K -0.808%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 17:01
betfred_uk2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -1.82%E -0.559%K -0.808%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 16:59
Bet Victor2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.71%EV -9.95%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -1.82%E -0.559%K -0.808%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-21 17:01
Codere (IT)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.75%EV -3.32%E -1.21%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.39%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.86%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-21 17:01
Unibet (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 17:00
BetMGM2.65I 37.74%NM 35.82%EV -6.84%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 17:00
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -3.02%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 17:00
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 36.08%EV -7.89%E -3.01%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 17:01
Betr (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 16:59
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -9.95%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 17:00
TAB2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -9.95%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 17:00
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -9.95%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.33%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 17:00
Pinnacle2.76I 36.23%NM 35.31%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.84%EV -0.254%E -0.088%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.84%EV -4.54%E -1.44%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-21 16:59
Unibet (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.50%EV -6.84%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.79%EV +2.17%E +0.736%K +1.11%G +0.024%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 17:00
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.50%EV -6.84%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.79%EV +2.17%E +0.736%K +1.11%G +0.024%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 17:00
Svenska Spel2.65I 37.74%NM 36.50%EV -6.84%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.79%EV +2.17%E +0.736%K +1.11%G +0.024%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 17:01
ATG (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.50%EV -6.84%E -2.58%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.79%EV +2.17%E +0.736%K +1.11%G +0.024%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 17:01
Everygame2.75I 36.36%NM 34.58%EV -3.32%E -1.21%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.22%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-21 16:59
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -4.84%E -1.54%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 16:59
Marathon Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 34.60%EV -1.56%E -0.558%K -0.868%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.35%EV -2.33%E -0.827%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.05%EV -5.75%E -1.84%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 16:59
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%EV -3.32%E -1.21%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.44%EV +0.439%E +0.151%K +0.231%G +0.001%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.29%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 16:59
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -3.32%E -1.21%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 17:01
BetUS2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -3.32%E -1.21%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 16:59
Grosvenor2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV +0.439%E +0.151%K +0.231%G +0.001%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-21 17:01
Casumo2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV +0.439%E +0.151%K +0.231%G +0.001%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-21 17:00
betPARX2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV +0.439%E +0.151%K +0.231%G +0.001%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-21 17:00
Bally Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV +0.439%E +0.151%K +0.231%G +0.001%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-21 17:01
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 17:01
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 17:01
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -7.54%E -2.87%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 17:01
Ladbrokes (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -7.89%E -3.01%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 17:01
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 16:59
Unibet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 17:00
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 17:00
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -7.89%E -3.01%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.15%EV -9.26%E -3.53%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-21 16:59
Fliff2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -9.95%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -6.35%E -2.05%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-21 17:00
LowVig.ag2.82I 35.46%NM 34.30%EV -0.859%E -0.305%K -0.472%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.30%EV -2.33%E -0.827%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.40%EV -6.95%E -2.26%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 17:00
BetOnline.ag2.82I 35.46%NM 34.30%EV -0.859%E -0.305%K -0.472%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.30%EV -2.33%E -0.827%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.40%EV -6.95%E -2.26%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-21 17:01
Bovada2.73I 36.63%NM 34.67%EV -4.02%E -1.47%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.29%EV -4.41%E -1.60%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 16:58
Unibet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.29%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.77%EV -0.254%E -0.088%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 17:00
TABtouch2.60I 38.46%NM 36.29%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.77%EV -0.254%E -0.088%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 17:01
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.29%EV -8.59%E -3.31%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.77%EV -0.254%E -0.088%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 17:01
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.29%E -0.454%K -0.699%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 16:56
NetBet (FR)2.67I 37.45%NM 34.55%EV -6.13%E -2.30%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -9.26%E -3.53%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.24%EV -7.86%E -2.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 16:59
Tipico (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -3.32%E -1.21%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 17:00
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -3.02%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 17:01
FanDuel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -3.02%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 17:00
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.60%EV -1.29%E -0.454%K -0.699%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 17:00
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -7.89%E -3.01%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 17:01
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -9.26%E -3.53%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 17:00
Virgin Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -3.02%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 17:01
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -3.02%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.37%E -3.12%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 17:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.08%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.50%EV -16.88%E -7.03%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.43%EV -15.41%E -5.50%K -8.56%G +0.000%17.4%2026-04-21 17:01
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.85%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.10%0.5%2026-04-21 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.85%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.10%0.5%2026-04-21 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.85%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.10%0.5%2026-04-21 17:01
Smarkets2.84I 35.21%NM 34.96%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.01%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-04-21 17:00
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.68%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-04-21 17:01
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.38%1.9%2026-04-21 17:01