Language:English
Málaga v Real Sociedad
Head to Head
Málaga (Local)
Prediction 29.10%3.44fair odd
EV +2.15%
Edge +0.614%
Kelly +0.858%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 3.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%28.97%29.01%29.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.203.253.5134.48%31.23%30.77%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Sociedad (Visit)
Prediction 43.92%2.28fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.25%44.08%43.93%46.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.082.082.1851.28%48.09%48.08%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.98%3.71fair odd
EV +1.16%
Edge +0.309%
Kelly +0.421%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.38%26.95%27.05%27.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.403.7530.77%28.93%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Málaga (Local): 29.10%; Real Sociedad (Visit): 43.92%; Draw: 26.98%. For Málaga (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.51, producing a positive expected value of +2.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.51I 28.49%NM 28.06%EV +2.15%E +0.614%K +0.858%G +0.018% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.39%EV -4.69%E -2.16%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 26.55%EV +0.078%E +0.021%K +0.029%G +0.000% | 1.5% | 2026-09-21 08:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -1.05%E -0.308%K -0.436%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -9.96%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -2.89%E -0.803%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-21 12:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -9.96%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-21 08:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -9.96%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-21 08:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.00%EV -4.54%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.83%EV -4.69%E -2.16%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -5.59%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-21 09:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV +1.16%E +0.309%K +0.421%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-09-21 08:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.25%EV -4.25%E -1.95%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-21 08:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -2.89%E -0.803%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-21 08:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -5.57%E -2.59%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.94%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-21 12:58 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-21 10:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.06%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.01%EV -8.64%E -4.16%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-21 10:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.59%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-21 12:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -9.96%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -5.59%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-21 12:58 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.17%EV -11.28%E -5.58%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-21 12:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -14.35%E -7.36%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-21 12:58 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.69%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.96%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-21 08:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.79%EV -15.60%E -5.38%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 43.63%EV -13.04%E -6.58%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.58%EV -12.33%E -3.79%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-09-21 12:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 29.05% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 43.21% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.74% | 16.3% | 2026-09-21 12:59 |