Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Málaga v Real Sociedad

2026-10-18 16:30 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Testa a testa

21 bookmaker (8 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Málaga (Casa)

Previsione 29.64%3.37quota equa
EV +0.787%
Vantaggio +0.231%
Kelly +0.328%
Crescita +0.003%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.40

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
28.40%29.68%29.68%30.92%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
2.903.143.153.4034.48%31.82%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Real Sociedad (Trasferta)

Previsione 43.56%2.30quota equa
EV -3.30%
Vantaggio -1.49%
Kelly -2.71%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.22

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
42.59%43.57%43.52%45.33%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.962.102.102.2251.02%47.53%47.62%45.05%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 26.80%3.73quota equa
EV +1.84%
Vantaggio +0.484%
Kelly +0.657%
Crescita +0.012%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.80

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
25.02%26.75%26.80%27.69%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
3.253.503.453.8030.77%28.54%28.99%26.32%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Per Testa a testa, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stima queste probabilità: Málaga (Casa): 29.64%; Real Sociedad (Trasferta): 43.56%; Pareggio: 26.80%. Per Pareggio, questa stima equivale a una quota decimale equa di 3.73. 2 bookmaker offrono quote superiori a tale livello; la migliore quota disponibile è 3.80, con un valore atteso positivo del +1.84%.

Quote dei bookmaker (21 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggio ▼MargineAggiornamento
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV +1.84%E +0.484%K +0.657%G +0.012%5.2%2026-09-21 13:45
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -3.66%E -1.13%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV +0.501%E +0.134%K +0.182%G +0.001%5.1%2026-09-21 08:54
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94%EV +0.787%E +0.231%K +0.328%G +0.003%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.53%EV -3.74%E -1.69%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.53%EV -0.571%E -0.154%K -0.211%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-21 13:04
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -0.839%E -0.227%K -0.311%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-21 13:04
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -0.839%E -0.227%K -0.311%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-21 13:49
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.11%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -10.71%E -5.22%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 13:48
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.11%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -10.71%E -5.22%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 13:49
Pinnacle🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.17%EV -6.33%E -2.00%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.13%EV -3.74%E -1.69%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.70%EV -4.32%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-21 13:19
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.11%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-21 13:49
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-21 13:04
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.62%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -3.30%E -1.49%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-21 13:04
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.62%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -3.30%E -1.49%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-21 13:09
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -2.18%E -0.660%K -0.947%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.35%E -2.96%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 13:09
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 10:44
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 13:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.14%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 13:39
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.11%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-21 13:49
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -14.03%E -4.84%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -8.53%E -4.06%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-21 13:04
Betclic (FR)🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 28.98%EV -8.70%E -2.82%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 43.97%EV -11.58%E -5.70%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.05%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-21 13:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.40%EV -8.11%E -2.61%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.92%EV -14.63%E -7.46%K -15.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-21 13:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.79%EV -14.03%E -4.84%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 43.63%EV -13.76%E -6.95%K -14.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.58%EV -12.90%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-21 12:59
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (1)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Smarkets2.94I 34.01%NM 29.19%1.99I 50.25%NM 43.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.68%16.5%2026-09-21 13:49