Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Girona v Celta Vigo

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Girona (Local)

Prediction 39.07%2.56fair odd
EV -0.761%
Edge -0.299%
Kelly -0.494%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.41%39.08%39.15%40.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.392.402.5444.44%41.80%41.67%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celta Vigo (Visit)

Prediction 31.41%3.18fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.335%
Kelly -0.491%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.38%31.39%31.34%32.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.013.003.1537.04%33.21%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.52%3.39fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.332%
Kelly -0.473%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.54%29.53%29.50%30.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.203.203.3535.71%31.23%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Girona (Local): 39.07%; Celta Vigo (Visit): 31.41%; Draw: 29.52%. For Girona (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.54, with an expected value of -0.761%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 38.33%EV -0.761%E -0.299%K -0.494%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.71%EV -3.57%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.96%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-01 19:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.77%EV -2.32%E -0.929%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.68%EV -3.88%E -1.27%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.55%EV -3.18%E -0.969%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-01 19:55
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.74%EV -2.32%E -0.929%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.65%EV -3.88%E -1.27%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.62%EV -3.47%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-01 19:55
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.07%EV -2.32%E -0.929%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -7.02%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-01 19:55
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -2.32%E -0.929%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 19:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -3.10%E -1.25%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.58%EV -3.88%E -1.27%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.46%EV -3.18%E -0.969%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-01 19:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -3.10%E -1.25%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.58%EV -3.88%E -1.27%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.46%EV -3.18%E -0.969%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-01 19:39
Bovada🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.26%EV -3.10%E -1.25%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.12%EV -7.02%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 19:54
Coolbet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -3.50%E -1.42%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -1.06%E -0.335%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.87%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-01 19:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.23%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.20%EV -3.25%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.57%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-01 19:55
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.93%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 19:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.93%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 19:54
BetUS🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -7.02%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 19:39
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 19:45
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -2.59%E -0.784%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 19:54
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 19:45
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 19:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 19:45
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -11.44%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 19:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -11.44%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 19:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.05%EV -5.06%E -2.08%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.90%EV -1.06%E -0.335%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -1.11%E -0.332%K -0.473%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-01 19:39
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.22%EV -5.45%E -2.25%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 19:45
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.22%EV -5.45%E -2.25%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 19:45
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -2.59%E -0.784%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 19:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -2.63%E -0.847%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 19:45
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 19:24
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 19:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 19:44
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 19:34
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 19:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.55%EV -7.01%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -1.06%E -0.335%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.11%E -0.332%K -0.473%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 19:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.55%EV -7.01%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -1.06%E -0.335%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.11%E -0.332%K -0.473%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 19:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.55%EV -7.01%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -1.06%E -0.335%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.11%E -0.332%K -0.473%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 19:40
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -7.01%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 19:33
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -7.01%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.44%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-01 19:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.78%EV -7.40%E -3.12%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.22%EV -5.14%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 19:55
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -7.40%E -3.12%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 19:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -7.40%E -3.12%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 19:34
NetBet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.00%EV -7.40%E -3.12%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -8.28%E -2.84%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.02%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 19:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -2.59%E -0.784%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 19:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-01 19:55
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 19:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 19:34
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.02%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 19:55
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 19:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -15.19%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -17.35%E -6.20%K -9.64%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-01 19:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.09%E -5.37%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.09%E -5.37%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 19:34
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.09%E -5.37%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 19:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24%0.2%2026-03-01 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24%0.2%2026-03-01 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24%0.2%2026-03-01 19:49
Matchbook2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24%0.2%2026-03-01 19:54
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%1.0%2026-03-01 19:49