La escuela de los momios

Girona v Celta Vigo

Inicio: 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Girona (Local)

Predicción 39.07%2.56momio equitativo
EV -0.761%
Ventaja -0.299%
Kelly -0.494%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.41%39.08%39.15%40.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.252.392.402.5444.44%41.80%41.67%39.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Celta Vigo (Visitante)

Predicción 31.41%3.18momio equitativo
EV -1.06%
Ventaja -0.335%
Kelly -0.491%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.38%31.39%31.34%32.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.703.013.003.1537.04%33.21%33.33%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.52%3.39momio equitativo
EV -1.11%
Ventaja -0.332%
Kelly -0.473%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.54%29.53%29.50%30.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.203.203.3535.71%31.23%31.25%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.54I 39.37%NM 38.33%EV -0.761%E -0.299%K -0.494%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.71%EV -3.57%E -1.16%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.96%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-01 19:55
Marathon Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.77%EV -2.32%E -0.929%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.68%EV -3.88%E -1.27%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.55%EV -3.18%E -0.969%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-01 19:55
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.74%EV -2.32%E -0.929%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.65%EV -3.88%E -1.27%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.62%EV -3.47%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-01 19:55
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 38.07%EV -2.32%E -0.929%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -7.02%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-01 19:55
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -2.32%E -0.929%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 19:45
BetOnline.ag2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -3.10%E -1.25%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.58%EV -3.88%E -1.27%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.46%EV -3.18%E -0.969%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-01 19:39
LowVig.ag2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -3.10%E -1.25%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.58%EV -3.88%E -1.27%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.46%EV -3.18%E -0.969%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-01 19:39
Bovada2.48I 40.32%NM 38.26%EV -3.10%E -1.25%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.12%EV -7.02%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 19:54
Coolbet2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -3.50%E -1.42%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -1.06%E -0.335%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.87%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-01 19:39
Betclic (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.23%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.20%EV -3.25%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.57%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-01 19:55
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.93%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 19:39
Codere (IT)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.93%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 19:54
BetUS2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -7.02%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 19:39
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 19:45
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -2.59%E -0.784%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 19:54
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 19:45
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 19:44
PMU (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 19:45
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -11.44%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 19:54
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -11.44%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 19:55
ATG (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 40.05%EV -5.06%E -2.08%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.90%EV -1.06%E -0.335%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -1.11%E -0.332%K -0.473%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-01 19:39
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 39.22%EV -5.45%E -2.25%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 19:45
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.22%EV -5.45%E -2.25%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 19:45
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -2.59%E -0.784%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 19:49
Tipico (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -2.63%E -0.847%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 19:45
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 19:24
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 19:34
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-01 19:44
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 19:34
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 19:49
Unibet (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.55%EV -7.01%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -1.06%E -0.335%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.11%E -0.332%K -0.473%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 19:40
Unibet (NL)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.55%EV -7.01%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -1.06%E -0.335%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.11%E -0.332%K -0.473%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 19:40
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 40.55%EV -7.01%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -1.06%E -0.335%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.81%EV -1.11%E -0.332%K -0.473%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-01 19:40
BetMGM2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -7.01%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 19:33
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -7.01%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.44%E -3.81%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-01 19:35
Unibet (FR)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.78%EV -7.40%E -3.12%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.22%EV -5.14%E -1.70%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 19:55
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -7.40%E -3.12%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 19:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -7.40%E -3.12%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 19:34
NetBet (FR)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.00%EV -7.40%E -3.12%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.66%EV -8.28%E -2.84%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.02%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 19:49
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -2.59%E -0.784%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 19:50
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-01 19:55
Neds2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 19:34
Ladbrokes (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-01 19:34
Parions Sport (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -8.18%E -3.48%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.02%E -2.23%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 19:55
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
Unibet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
TABtouch2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
BetRivers2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
Bally Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -4.20%E -1.38%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 19:39
Fliff2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.49%E -2.74%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-01 19:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -15.19%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -17.35%E -6.20%K -9.64%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-01 19:45
Virgin Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.09%E -5.37%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 19:35
LiveScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.09%E -5.37%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 19:34
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -12.09%E -5.37%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.54%E -1.73%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 19:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24%0.2%2026-03-01 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24%0.2%2026-03-01 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24%0.2%2026-03-01 19:49
Matchbook2.62I 38.17%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24%0.2%2026-03-01 19:54
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 38.09%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%1.0%2026-03-01 19:49