Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Espanyol v Real Sociedad

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 19:00 UTC

Final: Espanyol 1–1 Real Sociedad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Espanyol (Local)

Prediction 38.30%2.61fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.458%
Kelly -0.748%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.22%38.37%38.27%39.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.5843.48%40.82%40.82%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Sociedad (Visit)

Prediction 34.50%2.90fair odd
EV +1.77%
Edge +0.599%
Kelly +0.906%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.86%34.44%34.53%36.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.752.752.9540.00%36.37%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.20%3.68fair odd
EV +1.73%
Edge +0.463%
Kelly +0.632%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.62%27.19%27.20%28.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.423.453.7433.33%29.26%28.99%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Espanyol (Local): 38.30%; Real Sociedad (Visit): 34.50%; Draw: 27.20%. For Real Sociedad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.57%EV -2.33%E -0.914%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.34%EV +1.77%E +0.599%K +0.906%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.57%EV -2.33%E -0.914%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.34%EV +1.77%E +0.599%K +0.906%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-23 18:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.57%EV -2.33%E -0.914%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.34%EV +1.77%E +0.599%K +0.906%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.66%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV +0.042%E +0.014%K +0.022%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.97%EV -2.33%E -0.914%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.97%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.06%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 18:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.90%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.14%EV -3.16%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:29
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Bally Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Pinnacle🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.72%EV -1.18%E -0.458%K -0.748%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.63%EV -3.06%E -1.09%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.25%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-23 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 38.15%EV -2.71%E -1.07%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.48%EV -3.06%E -1.09%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.37%EV -3.71%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-23 18:28
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:49
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:49
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.14%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.91%EV -4.10%E -1.47%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.95%EV +1.73%E +0.463%K +0.632%G +0.011%3.0%2026-05-23 18:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 38.17%EV -3.10%E -1.22%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -4.44%E -1.60%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.97%EV -2.62%E -0.732%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.30%EV -4.79%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 18:48
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -2.33%E -0.914%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.78%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.72%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-23 18:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:40
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:49
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:29
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:29
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:40
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:29
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:29
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:29
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.84%E -3.72%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.60%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.84%E -3.72%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.60%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:49
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.84%E -3.72%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.60%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -9.99%E -4.25%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 18:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -9.99%E -4.25%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 18:49
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -9.99%E -4.25%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -12.96%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 18:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -9.99%E -4.25%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -14.32%E -4.54%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 18:49
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.64%EV -3.48%E -1.38%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.87%EV -6.17%E -2.27%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 18:29
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.64%EV -3.48%E -1.38%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.87%EV -6.17%E -2.27%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 18:29
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.34%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -2.08%E -0.577%K -0.798%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -2.08%E -0.577%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 18:38
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 18:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 18:49
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-23 18:39
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.42%EV -10.76%E -4.62%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -14.32%E -4.54%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-23 18:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.84%EV -9.23%E -3.89%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.48%EV -7.89%E -2.96%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.82%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 18:49
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.81%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 18:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -9.99%E -4.25%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 18:39
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -9.62%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -2.08%E -0.577%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -10.31%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-23 18:49
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.84%E -3.72%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -10.31%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-23 18:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.32%EV -11.91%E -5.18%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.06%EV -11.00%E -4.26%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.62%EV -3.98%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-23 18:38
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -11.91%E -5.18%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -18.40%E -6.13%K -9.20%G +0.000%16.8%2026-05-23 18:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.58I 38.76%NM 38.55%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.83%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63%0.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 38.65%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.60%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-05-23 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%1.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.58%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-05-23 18:49