La escuela de los momios

Espanyol v Real Sociedad

Inicio: 2026-05-23 19:00 UTC

Final: Espanyol 1–1 Real Sociedad

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Espanyol (Local)

Predicción 38.30%2.61momio equitativo
EV -1.18%
Ventaja -0.458%
Kelly -0.748%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.22%38.37%38.27%39.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.452.452.5843.48%40.82%40.82%38.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Sociedad (Visitante)

Predicción 34.50%2.90momio equitativo
EV +1.77%
Ventaja +0.599%
Kelly +0.906%
Crecimiento +0.016%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.86%34.44%34.53%36.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.752.752.9540.00%36.37%36.36%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.20%3.68momio equitativo
EV +1.73%
Ventaja +0.463%
Kelly +0.632%
Crecimiento +0.011%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.62%27.19%27.20%28.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.423.453.7433.33%29.26%28.99%26.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.57%EV -2.33%E -0.914%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.34%EV +1.77%E +0.599%K +0.906%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 38.57%EV -2.33%E -0.914%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.34%EV +1.77%E +0.599%K +0.906%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-23 18:49
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.57%EV -2.33%E -0.914%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.34%EV +1.77%E +0.599%K +0.906%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet (NL)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.66%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV +0.042%E +0.014%K +0.022%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:49
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.97%EV -2.33%E -0.914%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.97%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.06%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-23 18:29
BetOnline.ag2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.90%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.14%EV -3.16%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-23 18:29
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Bally Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -1.68%E -0.591%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Pinnacle2.58I 38.76%NM 37.72%EV -1.18%E -0.458%K -0.748%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.63%EV -3.06%E -1.09%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.25%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-23 18:40
Marathon Bet2.54I 39.37%NM 38.15%EV -2.71%E -1.07%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.48%EV -3.06%E -1.09%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.37%EV -3.71%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-23 18:28
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:49
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Sky Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:49
Tipico (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -3.41%E -1.22%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 18:49
1xBet2.48I 40.32%NM 39.14%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.91%EV -4.10%E -1.47%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.95%EV +1.73%E +0.463%K +0.632%G +0.011%3.0%2026-05-23 18:49
LowVig.ag2.53I 39.53%NM 38.17%EV -3.10%E -1.22%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -4.44%E -1.60%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.97%EV -2.62%E -0.732%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Bovada2.50I 40.00%NM 37.86%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.30%EV -4.79%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 18:48
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -2.33%E -0.914%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.78%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.72%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-23 18:39
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:40
BetUS2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:39
Codere (IT)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 18:49
BetMGM2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:29
Coral2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:29
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:40
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 18:29
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:29
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:29
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 18:29
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-23 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.84%E -3.72%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.60%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.84%E -3.72%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.60%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:49
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -8.84%E -3.72%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.60%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-23 18:49
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -9.99%E -4.25%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 18:49
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -9.99%E -4.25%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 18:49
BetRivers2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -9.99%E -4.25%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -12.96%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 18:49
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -9.99%E -4.25%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -5.13%E -1.87%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -14.32%E -4.54%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-23 18:49
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.64%EV -3.48%E -1.38%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.87%EV -6.17%E -2.27%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 18:29
Betsson2.52I 39.68%NM 37.64%EV -3.48%E -1.38%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.87%EV -6.17%E -2.27%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 18:29
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.34%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -2.08%E -0.577%K -0.798%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 18:49
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -2.08%E -0.577%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 18:38
TAB2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-23 18:29
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 18:49
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-23 18:39
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-23 18:39
LeoVegas2.33I 42.92%NM 38.42%EV -10.76%E -4.62%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -6.86%E -2.54%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -14.32%E -4.54%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-23 18:49
NetBet (FR)2.37I 42.19%NM 38.84%EV -9.23%E -3.89%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.48%EV -7.89%E -2.96%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.82%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -6.16%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 18:49
PlayUp2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.81%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -8.88%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-23 18:29
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -9.99%E -4.25%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -8.58%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.52%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 18:39
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -9.62%E -3.67%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -2.08%E -0.577%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -10.31%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -4.80%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-23 18:49
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.84%E -3.72%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -10.31%E -3.96%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -10.24%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-23 18:30
Betclic (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.32%EV -11.91%E -5.18%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.06%EV -11.00%E -4.26%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.62%EV -3.98%E -1.13%K -1.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-23 18:38
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -11.91%E -5.18%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -13.76%E -5.50%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -18.40%E -6.13%K -9.20%G +0.000%16.8%2026-05-23 18:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.58I 38.76%NM 38.55%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.83%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.63%0.6%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.9%2026-05-23 18:49
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 38.65%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.60%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-05-23 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%1.1%2026-05-23 18:49
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.58%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.60%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-05-23 18:49