Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Celta Vigo v Oviedo

Inicio: 2026-04-12 16:30 UTC

Final: Celta Vigo 0–3 Oviedo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Celta Vigo (Local)

Predicción 54.00%1.85momio equitativo
EV -0.096%
Ventaja -0.052%
Kelly -0.113%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.29%53.96%54.12%56.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.751.751.8564.10%57.17%57.14%54.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Oviedo (Visitante)

Predicción 19.47%5.14momio equitativo
EV +3.19%
Ventaja +0.601%
Kelly +0.741%
Crecimiento +0.024%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.21%19.51%19.42%20.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.884.905.3023.81%20.51%20.41%18.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.53%3.77momio equitativo
EV -1.84%
Ventaja -0.498%
Kelly -0.683%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.71%26.52%26.46%29.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.513.553.7033.33%28.46%28.17%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Celta Vigo (Local): 54.00%; Oviedo (Visitante): 19.47%; Empate: 26.53%. Para Oviedo (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.14. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.19%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.55%EV -3.88%E -2.18%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.32%EV +3.19%E +0.601%K +0.741%G +0.024%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.12%EV -5.03%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.78%EV -4.42%E -2.50%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.29%EV +3.19%E +0.601%K +0.741%G +0.024%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.93%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-12 16:01
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.83%EV -4.96%E -2.82%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV +3.19%E +0.601%K +0.741%G +0.024%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.96%EV -5.03%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-12 16:01
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.83%EV -4.96%E -2.82%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV +3.19%E +0.601%K +0.741%G +0.024%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.96%EV -5.03%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-12 16:01
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 54.03%EV -2.26%E -1.25%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.81%EV +1.24%E +0.238%K +0.295%G +0.004%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-12 16:01
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.44%EV -3.88%E -2.18%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.64%EV +1.24%E +0.238%K +0.295%G +0.004%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.44%EV -3.88%E -2.18%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.64%EV +1.24%E +0.238%K +0.295%G +0.004%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 15:30
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.69%EV -4.42%E -2.50%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.87%EV -0.124%E -0.024%K -0.030%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.45%EV -2.90%E -0.794%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 16:00
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -6.04%E -3.47%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -0.708%E -0.139%K -0.173%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 16:00
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.61%EV -6.04%E -3.47%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.63%EV -0.708%E -0.139%K -0.173%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.76%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 15:30
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.61%EV -6.04%E -3.47%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.63%EV -0.708%E -0.139%K -0.173%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.76%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 15:30
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.61%EV -6.04%E -3.47%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.63%EV -0.708%E -0.139%K -0.173%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.76%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 16:00
Bally Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.61%EV -6.04%E -3.47%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.63%EV -0.708%E -0.139%K -0.173%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.76%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.54%EV -6.58%E -3.80%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.50%EV -0.708%E -0.139%K -0.173%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 15:30
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.54%EV -6.58%E -3.80%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.50%EV -0.708%E -0.139%K -0.173%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 15:30
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.54%EV -6.58%E -3.80%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.50%EV -0.708%E -0.139%K -0.173%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 15:30
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.42%E -2.50%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.81%EV -1.68%E -0.333%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 15:20
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.46%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -2.65%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 16:01
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.77%EV -4.42%E -2.50%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.04%EV -2.65%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 16:01
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.61%EV -6.04%E -3.47%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.00%EV -2.65%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 16:01
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.75%EV -6.58%E -3.80%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -2.65%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 16:05
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.65%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 16:00
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.48%EV -7.12%E -4.14%K -9.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -2.65%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 15:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -6.58%E -3.80%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -2.65%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 16:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.42%EV -7.66%E -4.48%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -2.65%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 16:00
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.64%EV -9.28%E -5.52%K -13.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -2.65%E -0.531%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.15%EV -3.63%E -0.733%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 16:00
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.15%EV -3.63%E -0.733%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 16:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.11%EV -4.96%E -2.82%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.44%EV -4.60%E -0.939%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 16:05
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 53.22%EV -0.096%E -0.052%K -0.113%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 20.17%EV -4.99%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.6%2026-04-12 16:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.25%EV -1.72%E -0.943%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.98%EV -5.57%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.77%EV -3.97%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 16:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.85%EV -7.12%E -4.14%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -1.84%E -0.498%K -0.683%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:01
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.18%EV -6.04%E -3.47%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 16:00
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.21%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -7.66%E -4.48%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.00%EV -7.66%E -4.48%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.24%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.00%EV -7.66%E -4.48%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.24%EV -6.55%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 16:01
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.82%EV -2.80%E -1.55%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 15:30
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 16:00
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 15:59
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -7.12%E -4.14%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.38%EV -7.52%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 16:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -8.50%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -4.42%E -2.50%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.22%EV -9.47%E -2.04%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.64%EV -6.35%E -1.80%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 15:58
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -2.80%E -1.55%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 16:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -2.80%E -1.55%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 16:01
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.29%EV -4.42%E -2.50%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.43%EV -4.96%E -2.82%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 16:00
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.32%EV -6.04%E -3.47%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.15%E -2.04%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 16:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 16:01
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -12.45%E -3.77%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 16:03
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.23%EV -15.76%E -10.10%K -28.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.07%EV -10.44%E -2.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -5.82%E -1.64%K -2.28%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-28 02:55
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.42%E -2.50%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -12.39%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 16:01
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -3.88%E -2.18%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -12.39%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -3.88%E -2.18%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -12.39%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -8.48%E -2.46%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 16:01
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -5.50%E -3.14%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -12.39%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.80%E -2.88%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 15:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.20%E -4.82%K -11.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -12.39%E -2.75%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -4.50%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 16:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.29%EV -6.58%E -3.80%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -18.23%E -4.34%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.00%EV -20.41%E -6.80%K -10.21%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-12 16:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.81I 55.25%NM 55.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.44%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-04-12 16:05
Matchbook1.81I 55.25%NM 55.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.44%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-04-12 16:05
Smarkets1.80I 55.56%NM 55.15%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.38%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.7%2026-04-12 16:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.81%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-04-12 16:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.81%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-04-12 16:01
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.41%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%1.0%2026-04-12 16:05