L’École des cotes

CA Osasuna v Real Madrid

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-21 17:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

CA Osasuna (Local)

Prévision 20.29%4.93cote équitable
EV +2.49%
Avantage +0.493%
Kelly +0.615%
Croissance +0.015%

avec la cote maximale 5.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.04%20.30%20.30%22.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.254.644.605.0523.53%21.54%21.74%19.80%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Real Madrid (Visiteur)

Prévision 55.43%1.80cote équitable
EV -1.89%
Avantage -1.07%
Kelly -2.46%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.77

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
53.62%55.47%55.41%57.29%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.621.691.701.7761.73%59.14%58.82%56.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.28%4.12cote équitable
EV +1.97%
Avantage +0.468%
Kelly +0.614%
Croissance +0.012%

avec la cote maximale 4.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.78%24.23%24.29%26.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.923.944.2030.30%25.49%25.38%23.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Marathon Bet5.05I 19.80%NM 19.04%EV +2.49%E +0.493%K +0.615%G +0.015%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.56%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.40%EV -4.35%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-21 17:24
Coolbet5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46%EV +1.47%E +0.295%K +0.369%G +0.005%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.60%EV -3.00%E -1.72%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.8%2026-02-21 16:45
1xBet4.92I 20.33%NM 19.71%EV -0.149%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.70%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.59%EV -0.219%E -0.053%K -0.070%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-21 17:20
ATG (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 20.00%EV -0.555%E -0.113%K -0.142%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.66%EV -4.11%E -2.38%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.34%EV +1.97%E +0.468%K +0.614%G +0.012%2.0%2026-02-21 17:20
Unibet (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87%EV -0.555%E -0.113%K -0.142%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.94%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.18%EV +1.97%E +0.468%K +0.614%G +0.012%2.7%2026-02-21 17:20
Svenska Spel4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87%EV -0.555%E -0.113%K -0.142%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.94%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.18%EV +1.97%E +0.468%K +0.614%G +0.012%2.7%2026-02-21 17:20
Unibet (NL)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%EV -0.555%E -0.113%K -0.142%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.09%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV +1.97%E +0.468%K +0.614%G +0.012%3.0%2026-02-21 17:19
Pinnacle4.85I 20.62%NM 20.04%EV -1.57%E -0.324%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.91%EV -1.89%E -1.07%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.05%EV -5.80%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-21 17:25
Bovada4.85I 20.62%NM 19.56%EV -1.57%E -0.324%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.80%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -6.53%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:23
LowVig.ag4.80I 20.83%NM 20.14%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.57%EV -3.56%E -2.04%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.29%EV -3.38%E -0.848%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 17:15
BetOnline.ag4.80I 20.83%NM 20.14%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.57%EV -3.56%E -2.04%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.29%EV -3.38%E -0.848%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 17:15
theScore Bet4.80I 20.83%NM 19.93%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.29%EV -7.44%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV +1.97%E +0.468%K +0.614%G +0.012%4.5%2026-02-21 17:15
DraftKings4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.72%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.43%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-21 17:25
FanDuel4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.36%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 17:00
Tipico (DE)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.51%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 17:25
SportsBet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -3.60%E -0.758%K -0.960%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.10%EV -4.66%E -2.71%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-21 16:30
Everygame4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.60%E -0.758%K -0.960%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -6.53%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 17:25
Sky Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -3.60%E -0.758%K -0.960%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 17:00
Betsson4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.80%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.02%EV -4.10%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:25
NordicBet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.80%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.02%EV -4.10%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:19
Unibet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:19
Casumo4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:20
TABtouch4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:19
Grosvenor4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:19
Bally Bet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:19
betPARX4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:20
BetRivers4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -9.10%E -5.55%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 17:20
Codere (IT)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.27%EV -4.66%E -2.71%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV -4.10%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 17:25
Bet Victor4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 17:20
Unibet (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 17:25
Bet Right4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.14%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -4.10%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 17:10
Betr (AU)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 17:10
William Hill4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -7.44%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 17:25
Mr Green (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -7.44%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 17:25
PMU (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.97%EV -6.88%E -4.10%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -10.17%E -2.75%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 17:00
Virgin Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -10.21%E -6.30%K -16.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 17:20
LiveScore Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -10.21%E -6.30%K -16.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 17:20
LeoVegas4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.74%EV -10.21%E -6.30%K -16.46%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -4.10%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 17:19
Unibet (FR)4.55I 21.98%NM 20.58%EV -7.66%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.09%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.53%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 17:25
Parions Sport (FR)4.55I 21.98%NM 20.17%EV -7.66%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%EV -9.65%E -5.92%K -15.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-21 17:25
Winamax (DE)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.79%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:25
Coral4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -3.00%E -1.72%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 17:20
Fanatics4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -3.56%E -2.04%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 16:35
BetMGM4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -3.56%E -2.04%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 17:20
Betway4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 17:20
TAB4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 17:25
Paddy Power4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 16:30
Betclic (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -6.88%E -4.10%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-21 17:23
PlayUp4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -6.88%E -4.10%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 17:25
Fliff4.45I 22.47%NM 20.48%EV -9.69%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.22%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -10.70%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -3.00%E -1.72%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 17:20
Neds4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -10.70%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -3.00%E -1.72%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -10.70%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -3.00%E -1.72%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 17:20
Winamax (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -10.70%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.80%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 17:25
NetBet (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -10.70%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.45%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -6.53%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 17:25
BoyleSports4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -12.12%E -2.80%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.62%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -12.60%E -3.50%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 17:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.33I 23.09%NM 20.06%EV -12.12%E -2.80%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.62%EV -10.21%E -6.30%K -16.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.32%EV -19.88%E -6.03%K -8.65%G +0.000%15.1%2026-02-21 16:27
BetUS4.25I 23.53%NM 22.33%EV -13.75%E -3.23%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.53%EV -3.56%E -2.04%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 16:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-02-21 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.68%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-02-21 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.68%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-02-21 17:25
Smarkets5.40I 18.52%NM 18.28%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.3%2026-02-21 17:25
Matchbook5.30I 18.87%NM 18.62%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.3%2026-02-21 17:25