La escuela de los momios

CA Osasuna v Real Madrid

Inicio: 2026-02-21 17:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

CA Osasuna (Local)

Predicción 20.29%4.93momio equitativo
EV +2.49%
Ventaja +0.493%
Kelly +0.615%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.04%20.30%20.30%22.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.254.644.605.0523.53%21.54%21.74%19.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 55.43%1.80momio equitativo
EV -1.89%
Ventaja -1.07%
Kelly -2.46%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.62%55.47%55.41%57.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.691.701.7761.73%59.14%58.82%56.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.28%4.12momio equitativo
EV +1.97%
Ventaja +0.468%
Kelly +0.614%
Crecimiento +0.012%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.78%24.23%24.29%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.923.944.2030.30%25.49%25.38%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet5.05I 19.80%NM 19.04%EV +2.49%E +0.493%K +0.615%G +0.015%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.56%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.40%EV -4.35%E -1.10%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-21 17:24
Coolbet5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46%EV +1.47%E +0.295%K +0.369%G +0.005%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.60%EV -3.00%E -1.72%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.8%2026-02-21 16:45
1xBet4.92I 20.33%NM 19.71%EV -0.149%E -0.030%K -0.038%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.70%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.59%EV -0.219%E -0.053%K -0.070%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-21 17:20
ATG (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 20.00%EV -0.555%E -0.113%K -0.142%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.66%EV -4.11%E -2.38%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.34%EV +1.97%E +0.468%K +0.614%G +0.012%2.0%2026-02-21 17:20
Unibet (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87%EV -0.555%E -0.113%K -0.142%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.94%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.18%EV +1.97%E +0.468%K +0.614%G +0.012%2.7%2026-02-21 17:20
Svenska Spel4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87%EV -0.555%E -0.113%K -0.142%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.94%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.18%EV +1.97%E +0.468%K +0.614%G +0.012%2.7%2026-02-21 17:20
Unibet (NL)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%EV -0.555%E -0.113%K -0.142%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.09%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV +1.97%E +0.468%K +0.614%G +0.012%3.0%2026-02-21 17:19
Pinnacle4.85I 20.62%NM 20.04%EV -1.57%E -0.324%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.91%EV -1.89%E -1.07%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.05%EV -5.80%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-21 17:25
Bovada4.85I 20.62%NM 19.56%EV -1.57%E -0.324%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.80%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -6.53%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:23
LowVig.ag4.80I 20.83%NM 20.14%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.57%EV -3.56%E -2.04%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.29%EV -3.38%E -0.848%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 17:15
BetOnline.ag4.80I 20.83%NM 20.14%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.57%EV -3.56%E -2.04%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.29%EV -3.38%E -0.848%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-21 17:15
theScore Bet4.80I 20.83%NM 19.93%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.29%EV -7.44%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV +1.97%E +0.468%K +0.614%G +0.012%4.5%2026-02-21 17:15
DraftKings4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.72%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.43%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-21 17:25
FanDuel4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.36%EV -5.22%E -3.05%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 17:00
Tipico (DE)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -2.58%E -0.538%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.51%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 17:25
SportsBet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -3.60%E -0.758%K -0.960%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.10%EV -4.66%E -2.71%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-21 16:30
Everygame4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -3.60%E -0.758%K -0.960%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -6.53%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-21 17:25
Sky Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -3.60%E -0.758%K -0.960%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 17:00
Betsson4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.80%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.02%EV -4.10%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:25
NordicBet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.80%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.02%EV -4.10%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:19
Unibet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:19
Casumo4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:20
TABtouch4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:19
Grosvenor4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:19
Bally Bet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:19
betPARX4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.03%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 17:20
BetRivers4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -4.61%E -0.982%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -9.10%E -5.55%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 17:20
Codere (IT)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.27%EV -4.66%E -2.71%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV -4.10%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 17:25
Bet Victor4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 17:20
Unibet (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 17:25
Bet Right4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.14%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.59%EV -4.10%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 17:10
Betr (AU)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 17:10
William Hill4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -7.44%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 17:25
Mr Green (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.48%EV -7.44%E -4.45%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 17:25
PMU (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.97%EV -6.88%E -4.10%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -10.17%E -2.75%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 17:00
Virgin Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -10.21%E -6.30%K -16.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 17:20
LiveScore Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -10.21%E -6.30%K -16.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 17:20
LeoVegas4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -6.64%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.74%EV -10.21%E -6.30%K -16.46%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -4.10%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 17:19
Unibet (FR)4.55I 21.98%NM 20.58%EV -7.66%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.09%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.53%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 17:25
Parions Sport (FR)4.55I 21.98%NM 20.17%EV -7.66%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%EV -9.65%E -5.92%K -15.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-21 17:25
Winamax (DE)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.79%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:25
Coral4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -3.00%E -1.72%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 17:20
Fanatics4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -3.56%E -2.04%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 16:35
BetMGM4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -3.56%E -2.04%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 17:20
Betway4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 17:20
TAB4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 17:25
Paddy Power4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-21 16:30
Betclic (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -6.88%E -4.10%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-21 17:23
PlayUp4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -8.67%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -6.88%E -4.10%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 17:25
Fliff4.45I 22.47%NM 20.48%EV -9.69%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.22%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -10.70%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -3.00%E -1.72%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 17:20
Neds4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -10.70%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -3.00%E -1.72%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -10.70%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -3.00%E -1.72%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 17:20
Winamax (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -10.70%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.80%EV -7.99%E -4.81%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -2.89%E -0.722%K -0.963%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 17:25
NetBet (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -10.70%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.45%EV -8.54%E -5.18%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -6.53%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 17:25
BoyleSports4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -12.12%E -2.80%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.62%EV -5.77%E -3.40%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -12.60%E -3.50%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 17:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.33I 23.09%NM 20.06%EV -12.12%E -2.80%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.62%EV -10.21%E -6.30%K -16.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.32%EV -19.88%E -6.03%K -8.65%G +0.000%15.1%2026-02-21 16:27
BetUS4.25I 23.53%NM 22.33%EV -13.75%E -3.23%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.53%EV -3.56%E -2.04%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -0.462%E -0.113%K -0.149%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 16:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-02-21 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.68%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-02-21 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.68%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-02-21 17:25
Smarkets5.40I 18.52%NM 18.28%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.3%2026-02-21 17:25
Matchbook5.30I 18.87%NM 18.62%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%1.3%2026-02-21 17:25