L’École des cotes

Barcelona v Real Madrid

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-10 19:00 UTC

Score final : Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Barcelona (Local)

Prévision 57.63%1.74cote équitable
EV +0.268%
Avantage +0.154%
Kelly +0.362%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 1.74

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.69%57.66%57.60%58.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.571.651.651.7463.69%60.60%60.61%57.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Real Madrid (Visiteur)

Prévision 22.13%4.52cote équitable
EV +1.80%
Avantage +0.392%
Kelly +0.500%
Croissance +0.009%

avec la cote maximale 4.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.59%22.10%22.17%24.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.804.214.204.6026.32%23.74%23.81%21.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 20.24%4.94cote équitable
EV +1.22%
Avantage +0.244%
Kelly +0.305%
Croissance +0.004%

avec la cote maximale 5.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.23%20.24%20.23%23.85%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.604.654.705.0027.78%21.49%21.28%20.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.22%E -4.49%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV +1.80%E +0.392%K +0.500%G +0.009%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 18:53
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.91%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.21%EV -0.412%E -0.092%K -0.118%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.88%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.744%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 18:45
Marathon Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%EV -2.61%E -1.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.97%EV -1.52%E -0.341%K -0.440%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 20.16%EV -1.82%E -0.374%K -0.471%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-10 18:55
LowVig.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 58.50%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.96%EV -1.52%E -0.341%K -0.440%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.54%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004%2.4%2026-05-10 18:54
BetOnline.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 58.50%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.96%EV -1.52%E -0.341%K -0.440%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.54%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004%2.4%2026-05-10 18:55
Pinnacle1.67I 59.88%NM 58.39%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.91%EV -1.52%E -0.341%K -0.440%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.70%EV +0.209%E +0.042%K +0.053%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-10 18:45
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 58.18%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82%EV -2.63%E -0.597%K -0.772%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.744%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-10 18:50
theScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.39%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%EV -2.63%E -0.597%K -0.772%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-10 18:05
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.78%EV -7.22%E -4.49%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -2.63%E -0.597%K -0.772%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.744%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-10 18:41
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.83%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%EV -3.73%E -0.858%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-10 18:49
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 57.78%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.42%EV -4.17%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 18:54
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 57.48%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.90%EV -4.17%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 18:35
BetMGM1.65I 60.61%NM 57.48%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.90%EV -4.17%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 18:40
Everygame1.62I 61.73%NM 58.30%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -4.17%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 18:34
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.45%EV -7.22%E -4.49%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.73%EV -4.17%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 18:49
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.54%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.78%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-10 18:44
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.54%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.78%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-10 18:45
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.47%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.21%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-10 18:39
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 57.10%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.17%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-10 18:35
Codere (IT)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.10%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.17%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-10 18:54
Bovada1.65I 60.61%NM 57.64%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 18:53
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 57.05%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55%EV -5.94%E -1.40%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.39%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-10 18:04
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 57.05%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55%EV -5.94%E -1.40%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.39%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-10 18:04
Casumo1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%EV -5.94%E -1.40%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 18:49
Bally Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%EV -5.94%E -1.40%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 18:49
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 56.98%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV -5.94%E -1.40%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 18:29
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%EV +0.268%E +0.154%K +0.362%G +0.001%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.32%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.40%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-10 18:55
BetUS1.67I 59.88%NM 57.52%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.60%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-10 18:19
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 18:34
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 18:54
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 18:04
TABtouch1.63I 61.35%NM 57.64%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 18:49
Unibet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.64%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 18:49
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:34
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:40
BetRivers1.62I 61.73%NM 57.79%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 18:45
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 18:55
NetBet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 18:50
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.28%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 18:35
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 18:55
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 18:55
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.65%EV -5.49%E -3.35%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.29%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 18:55
Betr (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:34
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 56.11%EV -4.34%E -2.62%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 18:04
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 18:49
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 18:29
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -7.80%E -4.87%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 18:45
Fliff1.59I 62.89%NM 57.43%EV -8.38%E -5.27%K -14.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-10 18:55
1xBet1.73I 57.80%NM 56.08%EV -0.309%E -0.178%K -0.423%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.96%EV -10.37%E -2.56%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.96%EV -1.61%E -0.332%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-10 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -4.34%E -2.62%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 18:55
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 18:19
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 18:19
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.69%EV -7.80%E -4.87%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.744%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.69%EV -9.53%E -6.07%K -16.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.46%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.85%EV -27.12%E -7.53%K -10.43%G +0.000%16.5%2026-05-10 18:40
Virgin Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -15.90%E -4.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-10 18:55
LiveScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -15.90%E -4.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-10 18:55
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 56.31%EV -9.53%E -6.07%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.27%EV -15.90%E -4.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.42%EV -12.34%E -2.85%K -3.71%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-10 18:54
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.35%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.69%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.96%0.2%2026-05-10 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.87%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.51%0.5%2026-05-10 18:55
Smarkets1.69I 59.17%NM 58.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%0.9%2026-05-10 18:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%0.9%2026-05-10 18:55
Matchbook1.69I 59.17%NM 58.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%0.9%2026-05-10 18:55
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.21%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44%2.9%2026-05-10 18:40