La escuela de los momios

Barcelona v Real Madrid

Inicio: 2026-05-10 19:00 UTC

Final: Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Barcelona (Local)

Predicción 57.63%1.74momio equitativo
EV +0.268%
Ventaja +0.154%
Kelly +0.362%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.69%57.66%57.60%58.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.571.651.651.7463.69%60.60%60.61%57.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 22.13%4.52momio equitativo
EV +1.80%
Ventaja +0.392%
Kelly +0.500%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.59%22.10%22.17%24.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.804.214.204.6026.32%23.74%23.81%21.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.24%4.94momio equitativo
EV +1.22%
Ventaja +0.244%
Kelly +0.305%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.23%20.24%20.23%23.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.654.705.0027.78%21.49%21.28%20.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.22%E -4.49%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV +1.80%E +0.392%K +0.500%G +0.009%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 18:53
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.91%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.21%EV -0.412%E -0.092%K -0.118%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.88%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.744%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 18:45
Marathon Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%EV -2.61%E -1.55%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.97%EV -1.52%E -0.341%K -0.440%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 20.16%EV -1.82%E -0.374%K -0.471%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-10 18:55
LowVig.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 58.50%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.96%EV -1.52%E -0.341%K -0.440%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.54%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004%2.4%2026-05-10 18:54
BetOnline.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 58.50%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.96%EV -1.52%E -0.341%K -0.440%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.54%EV +1.22%E +0.244%K +0.305%G +0.004%2.4%2026-05-10 18:55
Pinnacle1.67I 59.88%NM 58.39%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.91%EV -1.52%E -0.341%K -0.440%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.70%EV +0.209%E +0.042%K +0.053%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-10 18:45
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 58.18%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82%EV -2.63%E -0.597%K -0.772%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.744%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-10 18:50
theScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.39%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%EV -2.63%E -0.597%K -0.772%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-10 18:05
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.78%EV -7.22%E -4.49%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -2.63%E -0.597%K -0.772%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.744%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-10 18:41
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.83%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%EV -3.73%E -0.858%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.83%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-10 18:49
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 57.78%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.42%EV -4.17%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 18:54
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 57.48%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.90%EV -4.17%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 18:35
BetMGM1.65I 60.61%NM 57.48%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.90%EV -4.17%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 18:40
Everygame1.62I 61.73%NM 58.30%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -4.17%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 18:34
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.45%EV -7.22%E -4.49%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.73%EV -4.17%E -0.964%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 18:49
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.54%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.78%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-10 18:44
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.54%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.78%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-10 18:45
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.47%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.21%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-10 18:39
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 57.10%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.17%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-10 18:35
Codere (IT)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.10%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.17%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-10 18:54
Bovada1.65I 60.61%NM 57.64%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -4.84%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 18:53
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 57.05%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55%EV -5.94%E -1.40%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.39%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-10 18:04
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 57.05%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55%EV -5.94%E -1.40%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.39%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-10 18:04
Casumo1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%EV -5.94%E -1.40%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 18:49
Bally Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.37%EV -5.94%E -1.40%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 18:49
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 56.98%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV -5.94%E -1.40%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 18:29
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%EV +0.268%E +0.154%K +0.362%G +0.001%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.32%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.40%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-10 18:55
BetUS1.67I 59.88%NM 57.52%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.60%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-10 18:19
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 18:34
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 18:54
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 18:04
TABtouch1.63I 61.35%NM 57.64%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 18:49
Unibet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.64%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 18:49
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -3.84%E -0.808%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:34
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.83%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:40
BetRivers1.62I 61.73%NM 57.79%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 18:45
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 18:55
NetBet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 18:50
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.28%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -7.05%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 18:35
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 18:55
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 18:55
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.65%EV -5.49%E -3.35%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.29%EV -0.803%E -0.164%K -0.206%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 18:55
Betr (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -3.19%E -1.90%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:34
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 56.11%EV -4.34%E -2.62%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 18:04
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%EV -6.65%E -4.10%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -4.85%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 18:49
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 56.56%EV -6.07%E -3.72%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 18:29
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -7.80%E -4.87%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 18:45
Fliff1.59I 62.89%NM 57.43%EV -8.38%E -5.27%K -14.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -9.26%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -8.90%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-10 18:55
1xBet1.73I 57.80%NM 56.08%EV -0.309%E -0.178%K -0.423%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.96%EV -10.37%E -2.56%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.96%EV -1.61%E -0.332%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-10 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -4.34%E -2.62%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 18:55
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 18:19
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -10.93%E -2.48%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 18:19
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.69%EV -7.80%E -4.87%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -2.83%E -0.589%K -0.744%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.69%EV -9.53%E -6.07%K -16.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.46%EV -11.48%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.85%EV -27.12%E -7.53%K -10.43%G +0.000%16.5%2026-05-10 18:40
Virgin Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -15.90%E -4.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-10 18:55
LiveScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.78%EV -4.92%E -2.98%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -15.90%E -4.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -6.88%E -1.49%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-10 18:55
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 56.31%EV -9.53%E -6.07%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.27%EV -15.90%E -4.19%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.42%EV -12.34%E -2.85%K -3.71%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-10 18:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.35%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.69%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.96%0.2%2026-05-10 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.87%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.51%0.5%2026-05-10 18:55
Smarkets1.69I 59.17%NM 58.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%0.9%2026-05-10 18:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%0.9%2026-05-10 18:55
Matchbook1.69I 59.17%NM 58.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.54%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%0.9%2026-05-10 18:55
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.21%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44%2.9%2026-05-10 18:40