Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona v Espanyol

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 72.29%1.38fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -6.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.73%72.05%72.46%73.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.311.3580.00%76.23%76.34%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Espanyol (Visit)

Prediction 11.28%8.86fair odd
EV +10.55%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.127%

assuming max odds 9.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.71%11.40%11.09%13.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.268.009.8014.29%12.11%12.50%10.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.43%6.09fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.233%
Kelly -0.280%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.71%16.55%16.45%19.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.585.506.0022.22%17.93%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 72.29%; Espanyol (Visit): 11.28%; Draw: 16.43%. For Espanyol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.86. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.66%EV -5.31%E -4.05%K -17.12%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.71%EV +10.55%E +1.08%K +1.20%G +0.127%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.63%EV -11.26%E -2.08%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 16:25
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.66%EV -5.31%E -4.05%K -17.12%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.71%EV +10.55%E +1.08%K +1.20%G +0.127%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.63%EV -11.26%E -2.08%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 16:25
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.13%EV -7.47%E -5.84%K -26.69%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV +7.17%E +0.755%K +0.843%G +0.060%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 16:25
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.95%EV -3.86%E -2.90%K -11.70%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.55%EV +3.78%E +0.411%K +0.461%G +0.017%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.50%EV -3.37%E -0.573%K -0.691%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 16:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.87%EV -3.14%E -2.34%K -9.23%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.85%EV +1.53%E +0.170%K +0.191%G +0.003%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.28%EV -1.40%E -0.233%K -0.280%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-11 16:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.97%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.70%EV +1.53%E +0.170%K +0.191%G +0.003%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.33%EV -3.04%E -0.515%K -0.621%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-11 15:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.97%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.70%EV +1.53%E +0.170%K +0.191%G +0.003%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.33%EV -3.04%E -0.515%K -0.621%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-11 15:39
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.96%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +1.53%E +0.170%K +0.191%G +0.003%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 15:53
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.58%EV -6.75%E -5.23%K -23.28%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV +1.53%E +0.170%K +0.191%G +0.003%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 16:25
TAB🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.89%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV +1.53%E +0.170%K +0.191%G +0.003%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -17.83%E -3.57%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 16:20
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -9.64%E -7.71%K -38.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV +1.53%E +0.170%K +0.191%G +0.003%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 16:25
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.46%EV -3.14%E -2.34%K -9.23%G +0.000%8.87I 11.27%NM 10.95%EV +0.061%E +0.007%K +0.008%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.60%EV -3.86%E -0.660%K -0.797%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-11 16:15
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.82%EV -2.41%E -1.79%K -6.90%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.02%EV -0.729%E -0.083%K -0.093%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.16%EV -7.15%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 15:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.73%EV -7.47%E -5.84%K -26.69%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.64%EV -1.29%E -0.148%K -0.167%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -7.97%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 16:25
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.21%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 16:10
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.67%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.13%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 16:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 16:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 16:03
Everygame🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 16:25
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.77%EV -6.75%E -5.23%K -23.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.19%EV -4.68%E -0.808%K -0.976%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 16:25
theScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.67%EV -6.75%E -5.23%K -23.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 15:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 15:44
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 15:34
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -13.72%E -2.61%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 16:05
Bet Right🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -4.11%E -0.484%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -13.72%E -2.61%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 15:44
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.96%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.51%EV -6.93%E -0.840%K -0.956%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 16:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -2.41%E -1.79%K -6.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -2.41%E -1.79%K -6.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 16:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -2.41%E -1.79%K -6.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 16:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.20%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%EV -1.40%E -0.233%K -0.280%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 16:25
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -3.86%E -2.90%K -11.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 16:25
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -3.86%E -2.90%K -11.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 16:25
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -3.86%E -2.90%K -11.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 16:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -1.40%E -0.233%K -0.280%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 16:25
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.86%EV -5.31%E -4.05%K -17.12%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 15:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.17%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 16:25
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.95%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -11.26%E -2.08%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 16:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.95%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -11.26%E -2.08%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 16:25
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.95%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -11.26%E -2.08%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 16:25
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 16:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.42%EV -12.90%E -2.43%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.03%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.42%EV -12.90%E -2.43%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 16:25
LeoVegas🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.19%EV -6.75%E -5.23%K -23.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -12.90%E -2.43%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 16:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -7.47%E -5.84%K -26.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -13.72%E -2.61%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 16:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.73%EV -9.64%E -7.71%K -38.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.90%EV -9.75%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -26.05%E -5.79%K -7.44%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-11 15:47
Winamax (DE)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.08%EV -5.31%E -4.05%K -17.12%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.18%EV -12.57%E -1.62%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -1.40%E -0.233%K -0.280%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 15:50
Fliff🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.80%EV -8.20%E -6.45%K -30.36%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.77%EV -12.57%E -1.62%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.43%EV -8.79%E -1.58%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 16:24
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.68%EV -2.41%E -1.79%K -6.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.72%EV -15.39%E -2.05%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.59%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.99%EV -3.86%E -2.90%K -11.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -15.39%E -2.05%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 16:25
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.99%EV -3.86%E -2.90%K -11.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -15.39%E -2.05%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 15:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.56%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -15.39%E -2.05%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.04%EV -4.68%E -0.808%K -0.976%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 15:39
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.03%E -4.64%K -20.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -15.39%E -2.05%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -17.83%E -3.57%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-11 15:10
BetMGM🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.53%EV -3.14%E -2.34%K -9.23%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.04%EV -18.21%E -2.51%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 15:04
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -3.86%E -2.90%K -11.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -21.03%E -3.00%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 15:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -3.86%E -2.90%K -11.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -21.03%E -3.00%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.36%EV -3.86%E -2.90%K -11.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -21.03%E -3.00%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -5.51%E -0.958%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.33I 75.19%NM 74.58%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50%0.8%2026-04-11 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.56%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%0.8%2026-04-11 16:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.56%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%0.8%2026-04-11 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.56%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%0.8%2026-04-11 16:20
Matchbook1.33I 75.19%NM 74.21%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92%1.3%2026-04-11 16:25
Kalshi1.32I 75.76%NM 74.45%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.72%1.8%2026-04-11 16:25