Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao

2026-08-27 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 67.23%1.49fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -5.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.80%67.32%67.07%69.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.391.391.4574.63%72.10%71.94%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Bilbao (Visit)

Prediction 13.81%7.24fair odd
EV +3.60%
Edge +0.480%
Kelly +0.554%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.84%13.80%13.94%14.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.106.856.827.5016.39%14.59%14.66%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.96%5.28fair odd
EV +2.37%
Edge +0.439%
Kelly +0.538%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.02%18.88%19.00%20.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.985.005.4021.74%20.09%20.00%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Barcelona (Local): 67.23%; Athletic Bilbao (Visit): 13.81%; Draw: 18.96%. For Athletic Bilbao (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.24. 9 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.50, producing a positive expected value of +3.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.45I 68.97%NM 67.75%EV -2.52%E -1.74%K -5.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.10%EV +3.60%E +0.480%K +0.554%G +0.020%5.13I 19.49%NM 19.15%EV -2.75%E -0.536%K -0.666%G +0.000%1.8%2026-07-31 17:30
Unibet (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 69.01%EV -5.21%E -3.69%K -12.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.97%EV +3.60%E +0.480%K +0.554%G +0.020%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.02%EV +2.37%E +0.439%K +0.538%G +0.013%2.8%2026-07-31 18:25
Unibet (NL)1.41I 70.92%NM 69.01%EV -5.21%E -3.69%K -12.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.97%EV +3.60%E +0.480%K +0.554%G +0.020%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.02%EV +2.37%E +0.439%K +0.538%G +0.013%2.8%2026-07-31 18:24
Svenska Spel1.41I 70.92%NM 69.01%EV -5.21%E -3.69%K -12.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.97%EV +3.60%E +0.480%K +0.554%G +0.020%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.02%EV +2.37%E +0.439%K +0.538%G +0.013%2.8%2026-07-31 18:24
ATG (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 69.01%EV -5.21%E -3.69%K -12.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.97%EV +3.60%E +0.480%K +0.554%G +0.020%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.02%EV +2.37%E +0.439%K +0.538%G +0.013%2.8%2026-07-31 18:19
LowVig.ag1.42I 70.42%NM 68.13%EV -4.53%E -3.19%K -10.79%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV +3.60%E +0.480%K +0.554%G +0.020%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.97%EV -3.32%E -0.651%K -0.809%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-22 15:39
BetOnline.ag1.42I 70.42%NM 68.13%EV -4.53%E -3.19%K -10.79%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV +3.60%E +0.480%K +0.554%G +0.020%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.97%EV -3.32%E -0.651%K -0.809%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-22 20:49
Grosvenor1.40I 71.43%NM 68.81%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.84%EV +3.60%E +0.480%K +0.554%G +0.020%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.35%EV -0.475%E -0.091%K -0.112%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-31 17:25
Marathon Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 67.73%EV -3.86%E -2.70%K -8.98%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.09%EV +2.22%E +0.300%K +0.346%G +0.008%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.18%EV -4.27%E -0.845%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-31 17:29
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -7.90%E -5.76%K -21.34%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.09%EV -0.545%E -0.076%K -0.088%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -1.42%E -0.274%K -0.339%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-03 08:24
BetUS1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.31%E -0.473%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.62%EV -3.32%E -0.651%K -0.809%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-14 21:04
betfred_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -3.31%E -0.473%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.21%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-14 11:29
SportsBet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.98%EV -6.55%E -4.71%K -16.80%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -3.31%E -0.473%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -3.32%E -0.651%K -0.809%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-14 11:29
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.31%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -3.31%E -0.473%K -0.551%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -7.11%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-23 08:04
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV -3.31%E -0.473%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -3.32%E -0.651%K -0.809%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-31 17:25
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV -3.31%E -0.473%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -3.32%E -0.651%K -0.809%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-31 17:24
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV -3.31%E -0.473%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -3.32%E -0.651%K -0.809%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-31 17:24
Bally Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV -3.31%E -0.473%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -3.32%E -0.651%K -0.809%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-31 17:24
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -7.90%E -5.76%K -21.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -3.31%E -0.473%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -3.32%E -0.651%K -0.809%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 11:29
Pinnacle1.41I 70.92%NM 67.15%EV -5.21%E -3.69%K -12.70%G +0.000%6.82I 14.66%NM 13.88%EV -5.79%E -0.850%K -0.996%G +0.000%4.99I 20.04%NM 18.97%EV -5.40%E -1.08%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 10:45
Codere (IT)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.99%EV -4.53%E -3.19%K -10.79%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.99%EV -6.07%E -0.893%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV -5.21%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 09:29
Unibet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.57%E -6.30%K -23.80%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -6.76%E -1.00%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -7.11%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-31 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.57%E -6.30%K -23.80%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -6.76%E -1.00%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -7.11%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-31 17:24
TABtouch1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.57%E -6.30%K -23.80%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -6.76%E -1.00%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -7.11%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-31 17:24
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -10.21%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.21%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-14 11:29
DraftKings1.40I 71.43%NM 66.62%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.35%EV -10.21%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -7.11%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-31 09:45
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -10.21%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -9.95%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-03 09:29
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.21%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.80%E -2.78%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-30 20:10
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -5.88%E -4.20%K -14.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.21%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.80%E -2.78%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-30 20:10
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -8.57%E -6.30%K -23.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -10.21%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.95%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-19 01:05
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -8.57%E -6.30%K -23.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -10.21%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.95%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-14 11:29
PMU (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.03%EV -9.24%E -6.84%K -26.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.92%EV -10.21%E -1.57%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -9.95%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-31 17:25
LiveScore Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 66.91%EV -9.91%E -7.40%K -29.15%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.01%EV -11.60%E -1.81%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.08%EV -10.90%E -2.32%K -2.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-31 17:25
Virgin Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 66.91%EV -9.91%E -7.40%K -29.15%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.01%EV -11.60%E -1.81%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.08%EV -10.90%E -2.32%K -2.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-31 17:24
Winamax (DE)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.56%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.70%EV -13.67%E -2.19%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -7.11%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-31 09:29
Winamax (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 66.72%EV -7.90%E -5.76%K -21.34%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -13.67%E -2.19%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.65%EV -7.11%E -1.45%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-03 09:29
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 66.22%EV -7.22%E -5.23%K -19.01%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.74%EV -14.36%E -2.32%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -9.01%E -1.88%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-03 09:29
Unibet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 66.61%EV -9.91%E -7.40%K -29.15%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.40%EV -14.36%E -2.32%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.99%EV -10.90%E -2.32%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-03 09:30
Betclic (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 66.15%EV -9.24%E -6.84%K -26.40%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.64%EV -15.74%E -2.58%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.21%EV -11.85%E -2.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-03 09:28
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.77%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.37%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.87%3.9%2026-08-03 08:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.77%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.37%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.87%3.9%2026-08-03 08:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.77%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.37%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.87%3.9%2026-08-03 08:25
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 67.41%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%5.2%2026-08-03 08:25