Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao

Kickoff: 2026-08-27 19:00 UTC

Final: Barcelona 2–0 Athletic Bilbao

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 77.70%1.29fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -11.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.30%77.59%77.74%80.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.221.2585.47%81.81%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Bilbao (Visit)

Prediction 8.25%12.13fair odd
EV +15.44%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.183%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.73%8.27%8.25%10.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.7511.4011.5014.0011.43%8.77%8.70%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.05%7.12fair odd
EV +5.24%
Edge +0.699%
Kelly +0.807%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 7.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.73%14.15%14.01%16.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.666.507.4917.54%15.01%15.38%13.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 77.70%; Athletic Bilbao (Visit): 8.25%; Draw: 14.05%. For Athletic Bilbao (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.13. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.54%EV -9.09%E -7.77%K -53.45%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +15.44%E +1.10%K +1.19%G +0.183%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.73%EV +3.97%E +0.537%K +0.621%G +0.025%6.1%2026-08-27 18:35
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.80%EV -3.65%E -2.94%K -15.20%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.24%EV +11.32%E +0.839%K +0.906%G +0.103%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.96%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-27 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.09%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.15%EV +11.32%E +0.839%K +0.906%G +0.103%7.01I 14.27%NM 13.76%EV -1.51%E -0.215%K -0.251%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-27 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.09%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.15%EV +11.32%E +0.839%K +0.906%G +0.103%7.01I 14.27%NM 13.76%EV -1.51%E -0.215%K -0.251%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-27 18:40
SportsBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.60%EV -5.98%E -4.94%K -28.47%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV +7.20%E +0.554%K +0.600%G +0.043%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.09%EV -5.16%E -0.765%K -0.897%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-27 18:29
FanDuel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.17%EV -5.98%E -4.94%K -28.47%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +7.20%E +0.554%K +0.600%G +0.043%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-27 18:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.77%EV -8.31%E -7.04%K -46.16%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV +7.20%E +0.554%K +0.600%G +0.043%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV +1.86%E +0.257%K +0.298%G +0.006%6.2%2026-08-27 18:34
Everygame🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -6.76%E -5.63%K -33.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +7.20%E +0.554%K +0.600%G +0.043%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 18:30
1xBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.48%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%12.80I 7.81%NM 7.58%EV +5.55%E +0.434%K +0.470%G +0.026%7.49I 13.35%NM 12.95%EV +5.24%E +0.699%K +0.807%G +0.042%3.1%2026-08-27 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 78.21%EV -2.87%E -2.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82%EV +3.08%E +0.246%K +0.267%G +0.008%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.97%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-27 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 78.21%EV -2.87%E -2.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82%EV +3.08%E +0.246%K +0.267%G +0.008%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.97%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-27 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 78.21%EV -2.87%E -2.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82%EV +3.08%E +0.246%K +0.267%G +0.008%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.97%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-27 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.49%EV -4.42%E -3.60%K -19.24%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.72%EV +3.08%E +0.246%K +0.267%G +0.008%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-27 18:55
Grosvenor🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.09%EV -4.42%E -3.60%K -19.24%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +3.08%E +0.246%K +0.267%G +0.008%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -5.16%E -0.765%K -0.897%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-27 18:55
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.64%EV -2.87%E -2.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.09%EV -1.05%E -0.087%K -0.095%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.27%EV -4.46%E -0.656%K -0.769%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-27 18:05
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.27%EV -3.65%E -2.94%K -15.20%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -1.05%E -0.087%K -0.095%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.74%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 18:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.06%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -1.05%E -0.087%K -0.095%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.00%EV -4.46%E -0.656%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-27 18:55
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -1.05%E -0.087%K -0.095%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-27 18:28
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -6.76%E -5.63%K -33.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -1.05%E -0.087%K -0.095%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-27 17:45
Paddy Power🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.13%EV -8.31%E -7.04%K -46.16%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -1.05%E -0.087%K -0.095%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-27 18:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.59%EV -2.87%E -2.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 8.25%EV -3.11%E -0.265%K -0.289%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 14.16%EV -3.76%E -0.548%K -0.642%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-27 18:55
BetUS🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.81%EV -4.42%E -3.60%K -19.24%G +0.000%11.65I 8.58%NM 8.22%EV -3.93%E -0.338%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 13.97%EV -3.76%E -0.548%K -0.642%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-27 14:40
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -5.17%E -0.450%K -0.492%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-27 18:55
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.15%EV -4.42%E -3.60%K -19.24%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV -5.17%E -0.450%K -0.492%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 18:55
Casumo🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.15%EV -4.42%E -3.60%K -19.24%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV -5.17%E -0.450%K -0.492%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 18:55
betPARX🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.15%EV -4.42%E -3.60%K -19.24%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV -5.17%E -0.450%K -0.492%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 18:55
Bally Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.15%EV -4.42%E -3.60%K -19.24%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.25%EV -5.17%E -0.450%K -0.492%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 18:55
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.30%EV -2.87%E -2.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV -5.17%E -0.450%K -0.492%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.51%EV -19.91%E -3.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-27 18:50
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.30%EV -2.87%E -2.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV -5.17%E -0.450%K -0.492%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.51%EV -19.91%E -3.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-27 18:50
theScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 18:55
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-27 18:54
LeoVegas🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 18:54
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 18:15
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 18:50
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 18:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -10.08%E -1.57%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-27 18:55
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.83%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.65%EV -10.08%E -1.57%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-27 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.60%EV -7.53%E -6.33%K -39.65%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV +1.86%E +0.257%K +0.298%G +0.006%6.9%2026-08-27 18:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.71%EV -6.76%E -5.63%K -33.78%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -5.16%E -0.765%K -0.897%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-27 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.24%EV -7.53%E -6.33%K -39.65%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 18:55
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -9.29%E -0.845%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -15.70%E -2.62%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-27 16:10
Fliff🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.41%EV -8.31%E -7.04%K -46.16%G +0.000%10.70I 9.35%NM 8.54%EV -11.77%E -1.10%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-27 18:56
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.55%EV -4.42%E -3.60%K -19.24%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -13.42%E -1.28%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-27 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -4.42%E -3.60%K -19.24%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -13.42%E -1.28%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -14.29%E -2.34%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-27 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -4.42%E -3.60%K -19.24%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -13.42%E -1.28%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -14.29%E -2.34%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-27 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.13%EV -5.98%E -4.94%K -28.47%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -13.42%E -1.28%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -14.29%E -2.34%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-27 18:55
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.13%EV -5.98%E -4.94%K -28.47%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -13.42%E -1.28%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -14.29%E -2.34%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-27 18:56
Bet Right🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -17.54%E -1.75%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 18:55
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -5.20%E -4.26%K -23.64%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -17.54%E -1.75%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-27 18:50
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -2.87%E -2.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -21.66%E -2.28%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-27 17:55
BetMGM🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -2.87%E -2.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -21.66%E -2.28%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-27 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.40%EV -6.76%E -5.63%K -33.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -21.66%E -2.28%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -15.70%E -2.62%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-27 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.90%EV -2.87%E -2.30%K -11.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -25.79%E -2.87%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.55%EV -1.65%E -0.235%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 18:55
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.52%EV -3.65%E -2.94%K -15.20%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.70%EV -27.85%E -3.18%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -4.46%E -0.656%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-27 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.52%EV -3.65%E -2.94%K -15.20%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.70%EV -27.85%E -3.18%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -4.46%E -0.656%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-27 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.26I 79.37%NM 79.35%14.01I 7.14%NM 7.14%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.51%0.0%2026-08-27 18:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.26I 79.37%NM 79.14%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.39%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.47%0.3%2026-08-27 18:55
Matchbook1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.87%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.46%0.4%2026-08-27 18:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 79.48%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%0.7%2026-08-27 18:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 79.48%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.10%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%0.7%2026-08-27 18:56
Kalshi1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.84%1.3%2026-08-27 18:56