The School of Odds

Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao

2026-08-27 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 66.95%1.49fair odd
EV -4.93%
Edge -3.47%
Kelly -11.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.30%66.92%66.93%68.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.321.371.371.4276%73%73%70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Athletic Bilbao (Visit)

Prediction 14.01%7.14fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.275%
Kelly -0.321%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.37%14.05%14.16%14.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.006.606.507.0017%15%15%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 19.04%5.25fair odd
EV +0.905%
Edge +0.171%
Kelly +0.210%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.78%19.03%18.91%20.35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.304.864.905.3023%21%20%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.77%EV -8.28%E -6.04%K -22.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV -1.93%E -0.275%K -0.321%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.78%EV +0.905%E +0.171%K +0.210%G +0.002%6.1%2026-07-14 11:29
SportsBet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.98%EV -6.94%E -4.99%K -17.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -1.93%E -0.275%K -0.321%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -2.90%E -0.569%K -0.708%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-14 11:29
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -8.28%E -6.04%K -22.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -1.93%E -0.275%K -0.321%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -2.90%E -0.569%K -0.708%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 11:29
Winamax (DE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.76%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -2.90%E -0.569%K -0.708%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-14 11:29
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -1.93%E -0.275%K -0.321%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -4.81%E -0.961%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-14 11:29
betfred_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -1.93%E -0.275%K -0.321%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -4.81%E -0.961%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-14 11:29
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.81%E -0.961%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-14 11:29
Codere (IT)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.99%EV -4.93%E -3.47%K -11.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -1.93%E -0.275%K -0.321%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -6.71%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-14 13:00
Winamax (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 67.21%EV -10.29%E -7.68%K -30.25%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.41%EV -12.43%E -1.99%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -6.71%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-14 12:59
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 66.24%EV -7.61%E -5.51%K -20.02%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.51%EV -11.73%E -1.86%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -9.57%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-14 13:00
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.57%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-14 11:29
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -15.94%E -2.66%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -9.57%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-14 11:29
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.42%E -2.70%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-14 11:29
Unibet (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 66.25%EV -11.62%E -8.81%K -36.33%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 13.88%EV -11.73%E -1.86%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.87%EV -16.23%E -3.69%K -4.77%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-14 12:59
Betclic (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 65.30%EV -10.29%E -7.68%K -30.25%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.35%EV -14.54%E -2.38%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.35%EV -18.13%E -4.22%K -5.50%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-14 12:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.43I 69.93%NM 66.02%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%5.9%2026-07-14 13:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.66%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%9.9%2026-07-14 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.66%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%9.9%2026-07-14 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 46.31%1.73I 57.80%NM 38.28%4.30I 23.26%NM 15.40%51.0%2026-07-14 12:59