L’École des cotes

Atlético Madrid v Real Sociedad

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-07 17:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prévision 58.25%1.72cote équitable
EV -2.73%
Avantage -1.63%
Kelly -4.07%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.67

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
55.87%58.24%58.19%59.20%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.531.621.611.6765.36%61.75%62.11%59.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Real Sociedad (Visiteur)

Prévision 18.13%5.51cote équitable
EV -0.258%
Avantage -0.047%
Kelly -0.057%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.42%18.18%18.18%19.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.215.255.5022.22%19.21%19.05%18.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 23.62%4.23cote équitable
EV -0.808%
Avantage -0.192%
Kelly -0.252%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.56%23.58%23.63%25.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.403.984.004.2029.41%25.14%25.00%23.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 58.45%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.75%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.81%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-07 17:25
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.62%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.33%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-07 16:45
Unibet (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 58.59%EV -3.31%E -1.99%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.68%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-07 17:25
Svenska Spel1.66I 60.24%NM 58.59%EV -3.31%E -1.99%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.68%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-07 17:24
1xBet1.66I 60.24%NM 58.44%EV -3.31%E -1.99%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.96%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.60%EV -2.93%E -0.714%K -0.943%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 17:24
Marathon Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.94%EV -3.31%E -1.99%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.32%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.75%EV -4.35%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-07 17:24
Pinnacle1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.49I 18.21%NM 17.66%EV -0.440%E -0.080%K -0.098%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.59%EV -2.93%E -0.714%K -0.943%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 17:10
Unibet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.26%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.85%EV -7.51%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.89%EV -0.808%E -0.192%K -0.252%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-07 17:24
Betclic (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.25%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.31%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-07 16:45
Betsson1.65I 60.61%NM 58.03%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.73%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-07 17:04
NordicBet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.03%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.73%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-07 17:05
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 16:39
Codere (IT)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.81%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.34%EV -5.70%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 17:04
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 17:25
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -11.14%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 17:25
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 17:05
William Hill1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -12.95%E -2.70%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 16:50
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -12.95%E -2.70%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 16:49
Unibet (NL)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.89%EV -4.47%E -2.73%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.56%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.55%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 17:25
LowVig.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 59.20%EV -5.06%E -3.10%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.25%EV -1.99%E -0.479%K -0.631%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-07 17:19
BetOnline.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 59.20%EV -5.06%E -3.10%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.25%EV -1.99%E -0.479%K -0.631%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-07 17:19
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -5.64%E -3.48%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 17:15
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.59%EV -5.64%E -3.48%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.25%EV -5.70%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 17:24
theScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -5.64%E -3.48%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -0.808%E -0.192%K -0.252%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 17:14
Everygame1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -5.64%E -3.48%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 17:04
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 59.17%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -0.808%E -0.192%K -0.252%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 16:34
BetMGM1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 16:35
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 16:40
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 17:24
NetBet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.03%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -7.51%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 17:25
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 17:14
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.90%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -5.70%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 17:09
TABtouch1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:04
Unibet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:04
Casumo1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:05
Grosvenor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:04
Bally Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:04
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:04
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -5.70%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 16:19
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -5.70%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 16:20
PMU (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -3.89%E -0.733%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 17:15
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -3.89%E -0.733%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 17:23
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.18%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -7.51%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 17:25
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-07 17:12
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:25
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:24
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:04
Bet Right1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -11.14%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:25
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-07 17:15
BoyleSports1.60I 62.50%NM 56.89%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -13.86%E -2.92%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-07 16:39
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10%NM 58.74%EV -9.13%E -5.85%K -16.31%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.45%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 16:39
Fliff1.56I 64.10%NM 58.44%EV -9.13%E -5.85%K -16.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -7.51%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-07 17:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 55.87%EV -10.88%E -7.11%K -20.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%EV -18.39%E -4.09%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.14%EV -19.70%E -5.79%K -8.21%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-07 17:14
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 59.04%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.76%0.2%2026-03-07 17:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.38%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.41%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.8%2026-03-07 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.38%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.41%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.8%2026-03-07 17:25
Matchbook1.69I 59.17%NM 58.52%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 17:25
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.66%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.55%1.8%2026-03-07 16:35
Smarkets1.69I 59.17%NM 58.00%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-03-07 17:25