Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlético Madrid v Real Sociedad

Inicio: 2026-03-07 17:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Predicción 58.25%1.72momio equitativo
EV -2.73%
Ventaja -1.63%
Kelly -4.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.87%58.24%58.19%59.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.621.611.6765.36%61.75%62.11%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Real Sociedad (Visitante)

Predicción 18.13%5.51momio equitativo
EV -0.258%
Ventaja -0.047%
Kelly -0.057%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.42%18.18%18.18%19.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.505.215.255.5022.22%19.21%19.05%18.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.62%4.23momio equitativo
EV -0.808%
Ventaja -0.192%
Kelly -0.252%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.56%23.58%23.63%25.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.984.004.2029.41%25.14%25.00%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Atlético Madrid (Local): 58.25%; Real Sociedad (Visitante): 18.13%; Empate: 23.62%. Para Real Sociedad (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.51. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 5.50, con un valor esperado de -0.258%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.45%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.75%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.81%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-07 17:25
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.62%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.33%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-07 16:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.59%EV -3.31%E -1.99%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.68%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-07 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.59%EV -3.31%E -1.99%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.68%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-07 17:24
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.44%EV -3.31%E -1.99%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.96%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.60%EV -2.93%E -0.714%K -0.943%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 17:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.94%EV -3.31%E -1.99%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.32%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.75%EV -4.35%E -1.07%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-07 17:24
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.49I 18.21%NM 17.66%EV -0.440%E -0.080%K -0.098%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.59%EV -2.93%E -0.714%K -0.943%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 17:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.26%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.85%EV -7.51%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.89%EV -0.808%E -0.192%K -0.252%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-07 17:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.25%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.31%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.44%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-07 16:45
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.03%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.73%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-07 17:04
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.03%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.73%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-07 17:05
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 16:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.81%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.34%EV -5.70%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 17:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 17:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -11.14%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 17:25
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 17:05
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -12.95%E -2.70%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -12.95%E -2.70%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 16:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.89%EV -4.47%E -2.73%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.56%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.55%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 17:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.20%EV -5.06%E -3.10%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.25%EV -1.99%E -0.479%K -0.631%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-07 17:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.20%EV -5.06%E -3.10%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%EV -0.258%E -0.047%K -0.057%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.25%EV -1.99%E -0.479%K -0.631%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-07 17:19
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -5.64%E -3.48%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 17:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.59%EV -5.64%E -3.48%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.25%EV -5.70%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 17:24
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -5.64%E -3.48%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -0.808%E -0.192%K -0.252%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 17:14
Everygame🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -5.64%E -3.48%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 17:04
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.17%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -0.808%E -0.192%K -0.252%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 16:34
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 16:35
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.85%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.05%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 16:40
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 17:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.03%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -7.51%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 17:25
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -6.22%E -3.86%K -10.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 17:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.90%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -5.70%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -3.17%E -0.773%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 17:09
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:04
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:04
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:05
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:04
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:04
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.42%EV -2.07%E -0.384%K -0.471%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -5.70%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 16:19
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -5.70%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 16:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -3.89%E -0.733%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 17:15
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -3.89%E -0.733%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 17:23
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.18%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -7.51%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -6.71%E -1.70%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 17:25
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.53%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-07 17:12
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:24
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:04
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.80%EV -11.14%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -7.89%E -2.02%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:25
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -9.33%E -1.87%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-07 17:15
BoyleSports🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.89%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -13.86%E -2.92%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.25%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-07 16:39
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.74%EV -9.13%E -5.85%K -16.31%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.45%EV -4.79%E -0.913%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 16:39
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.44%EV -9.13%E -5.85%K -16.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -7.51%E -1.47%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -9.07%E -2.36%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-07 17:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 55.87%EV -10.88%E -7.11%K -20.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%EV -18.39%E -4.09%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.14%EV -19.70%E -5.79%K -8.21%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-07 17:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 59.04%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.76%0.2%2026-03-07 17:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.38%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.41%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.8%2026-03-07 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.38%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.41%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.8%2026-03-07 17:25
Matchbook1.69I 59.17%NM 58.52%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-07 17:25
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.66%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.55%1.8%2026-03-07 16:35
Smarkets1.69I 59.17%NM 58.00%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-03-07 17:25