Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid v Girona

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 17:00 UTC

Final: Atlético Madrid 1–0 Girona

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prediction 53.69%1.86fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.657%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.99%53.61%53.71%54.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.771.771.8459.88%56.59%56.50%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Girona (Visit)

Prediction 22.10%4.53fair odd
EV +0.545%
Edge +0.120%
Kelly +0.153%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.25%22.17%22.08%23.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.244.204.5526.32%23.61%23.81%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.21%4.13fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.420%
Kelly -0.557%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.47%24.23%24.21%26.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.833.864.0630.30%26.09%25.91%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Madrid (Local): 53.69%; Girona (Visit): 22.10%; Draw: 24.21%. For Girona (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.545%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.71%EV -3.36%E -1.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.25%EV +0.545%E +0.120%K +0.153%G +0.001%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.05%EV -6.55%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 02:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.71%EV -3.36%E -1.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.25%EV +0.545%E +0.120%K +0.153%G +0.001%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.05%EV -6.55%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 02:05
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 53.53%EV -1.21%E -0.657%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.84%EV -0.339%E -0.075%K -0.097%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63%EV -3.16%E -0.789%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.33%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.49%EV -0.560%E -0.124%K -0.160%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -3.16%E -0.789%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.59%EV -2.82%E -1.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.80%EV -1.67%E -0.374%K -0.483%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.62%EV -4.61%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.32%EV -2.82%E -1.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%EV -2.77%E -0.630%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.32%EV -2.82%E -1.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%EV -2.77%E -0.630%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.32%EV -2.82%E -1.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%EV -2.77%E -0.630%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-17 10:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.32%EV -2.82%E -1.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%EV -2.77%E -0.630%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.86%EV -3.89%E -2.17%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.91%EV -2.77%E -0.630%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.22%EV -3.64%E -0.915%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-17 10:31
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.88%EV -4.97%E -2.81%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -2.77%E -0.630%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 10:40
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.30%EV -6.58%E -3.78%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -2.77%E -0.630%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 17:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -7.65%E -4.45%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -2.77%E -0.630%K -0.815%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -3.16%E -0.789%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71%EV -2.82%E -1.56%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35%EV -3.87%E -0.891%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.94%EV -1.70%E -0.420%K -0.557%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.60%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.93%EV -3.87%E -0.891%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.30%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.95%EV -4.32%E -0.997%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -3.16%E -0.789%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 10:39
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.97%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -4.32%E -0.997%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:39
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -4.32%E -0.997%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.52%EV -3.36%E -1.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.40%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%EV -3.16%E -0.789%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-17 10:39
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.19%EV -3.36%E -1.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.26%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.55%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 10:40
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.63%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.17%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.63%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.17%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.77%EV -4.97%E -2.81%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 10:40
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Bally Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -4.98%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 10:40
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.41%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.08%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -3.36%E -1.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -3.36%E -1.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -3.36%E -1.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.49%EV -4.97%E -2.81%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 10:40
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -4.97%E -2.81%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -5.58%E -1.43%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -3.16%E -0.789%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 10:39
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -3.36%E -1.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 05:30
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 10:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 10:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -7.65%E -4.45%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -7.19%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.65%EV -9.26%E -5.48%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.85%EV -8.29%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -10.42%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.34%EV -5.50%E -3.13%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 10:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.56%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 05:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.56%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 10:39
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.56%EV -4.43%E -2.49%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Right🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.53%EV -4.97%E -2.81%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 10:40
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.81%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.21%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:39
TABtouch🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.63%E -3.19%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.63%E -3.19%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 10:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -6.04%E -3.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.63%E -3.19%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 10:40
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.42%EV -6.58%E -3.78%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -12.84%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 10:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.71%EV -7.65%E -4.45%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -9.40%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -12.84%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-17 10:39
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.97%E -2.81%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -3.16%E -0.789%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.00%EV -6.58%E -3.78%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -6.79%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 10:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -12.84%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.42%EV -7.65%E -4.45%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -12.84%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-17 10:40
LeoVegas🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.38%EV -8.19%E -4.79%K -11.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -14.05%E -3.96%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-17 04:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.99%EV -10.34%E -6.19%K -15.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.70%EV -11.61%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.31%EV -20.10%E -6.09%K -8.74%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-17 10:40
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.34%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -16.03%E -4.22%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -8.00%E -2.10%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.23%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.23%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.23%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Matchbook1.83I 54.64%NM 54.23%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.45%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.78%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77%0.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Smarkets1.82I 54.95%NM 54.04%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.38%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.59%1.7%2026-05-17 10:40