L’École des cotes

Atlético Madrid v Celta Vigo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-09 16:30 UTC

Score final : Atlético Madrid 0–1 Celta Vigo

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prévision 51.09%1.96cote équitable
EV +0.139%
Avantage +0.071%
Kelly +0.145%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.96

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.15%51.16%51.07%53.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.771.861.851.9656.50%53.88%54.05%51.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Celta Vigo (Visiteur)

Prévision 23.35%4.28cote équitable
EV +5.09%
Avantage +1.13%
Kelly +1.45%
Croissance +0.074%

avec la cote maximale 4.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.50%23.40%23.28%25.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.503.983.954.5028.57%25.13%25.32%22.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.56%3.91cote équitable
EV +0.947%
Avantage +0.240%
Kelly +0.321%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 3.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.20%25.44%25.65%27.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.693.703.9531.25%27.12%27.03%25.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 53.17%EV -7.01%E -3.85%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.50%EV +5.09%E +1.13%K +1.45%G +0.074%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.33%EV -2.38%E -0.622%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-09 16:24
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.74%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.19%EV +1.58%E +0.364%K +0.473%G +0.007%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07%EV -1.61%E -0.418%K -0.564%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 16:19
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.74%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.19%EV +1.58%E +0.364%K +0.473%G +0.007%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07%EV -1.61%E -0.418%K -0.564%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 16:19
Pinnacle1.87I 53.48%NM 51.97%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.92%EV -0.985%E -0.232%K -0.304%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.11%EV -1.10%E -0.284%K -0.382%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-09 16:20
Coolbet1.90I 52.63%NM 51.22%EV -2.93%E -1.54%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.17%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.61%EV -2.89%E -0.760%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-09 16:09
Marathon Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 51.28%EV -3.44%E -1.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.64%EV -3.40%E -0.899%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-09 16:24
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.53%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 16:25
Bovada1.81I 55.25%NM 52.43%EV -7.52%E -4.16%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -2.89%E -0.760%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 16:25
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 16:14
Tipico (DE)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -9.57%E -5.41%K -12.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -0.331%E -0.085%K -0.114%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 16:14
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -3.09%E -0.744%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 16:14
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -3.09%E -0.744%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 16:14
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 50.37%EV -1.39%E -0.722%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.92%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-09 15:55
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 51.16%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-09 16:20
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 50.98%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 16:05
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 16:25
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -5.42%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -8.51%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:23
BetUS1.84I 54.35%NM 52.05%EV -5.99%E -3.26%K -7.13%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.71%EV -5.66%E -1.40%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.25%EV +0.947%E +0.240%K +0.321%G +0.003%4.4%2026-05-09 16:14
ATG (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 49.51%EV +0.139%E +0.071%K +0.145%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-09 15:54
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.90%EV -1.39%E -0.722%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-09 15:55
Svenska Spel1.93I 51.81%NM 49.90%EV -1.39%E -0.722%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-09 15:55
Codere (IT)1.86I 53.76%NM 50.99%EV -4.97%E -2.67%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 16:25
Betway1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -3.95%E -2.10%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 16:14
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 16:14
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 16:04
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 16:19
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -2.89%E -0.760%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 16:25
NetBet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 16:24
Casumo1.89I 52.91%NM 50.09%EV -3.44%E -1.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 15:54
Grosvenor1.89I 52.91%NM 50.09%EV -3.44%E -1.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 15:54
Bally Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.09%EV -3.44%E -1.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 15:54
betPARX1.89I 52.91%NM 50.09%EV -3.44%E -1.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 15:54
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 16:04
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 16:04
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -3.95%E -2.10%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 15:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -3.95%E -2.10%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 15:54
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -3.95%E -2.10%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 15:54
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 16:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 16:04
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 16:04
BetRivers1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 15:54
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 16:14
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -9.28%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 15:54
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -7.01%E -3.85%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -1.61%E -0.418%K -0.564%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 16:24
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -7.01%E -3.85%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 16:15
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 49.77%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 15:55
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 50.64%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -9.28%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 16:14
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -0.331%E -0.085%K -0.114%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 15:55
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 49.67%EV -2.93%E -1.54%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 15:55
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 16:04
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.17%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 16:25
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 15:54
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 15:55
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 16:25
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-09 16:04
Bet Right1.86I 53.76%NM 50.03%EV -4.97%E -2.67%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.60%E -3.67%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 15:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.15%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.76%EV -18.27%E -5.22%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -18.22%E -5.69%K -8.28%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-09 16:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.85%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.5%2026-05-09 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.85%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.5%2026-05-09 16:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.98%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46%0.7%2026-05-09 16:25
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.24%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.44%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%1.3%2026-05-09 16:25
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.43%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.19%1.8%2026-05-09 16:25
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 52.97%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-09 16:20