La escuela de los momios

Atlético Madrid v Celta Vigo

Inicio: 2026-05-09 16:30 UTC

Final: Atlético Madrid 0–1 Celta Vigo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Predicción 51.09%1.96momio equitativo
EV +0.139%
Ventaja +0.071%
Kelly +0.145%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.15%51.16%51.07%53.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.771.861.851.9656.50%53.88%54.05%51.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Celta Vigo (Visitante)

Predicción 23.35%4.28momio equitativo
EV +5.09%
Ventaja +1.13%
Kelly +1.45%
Crecimiento +0.074%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.50%23.40%23.28%25.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.503.983.954.5028.57%25.13%25.32%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.56%3.91momio equitativo
EV +0.947%
Ventaja +0.240%
Kelly +0.321%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.20%25.44%25.65%27.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.693.703.9531.25%27.12%27.03%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 53.17%EV -7.01%E -3.85%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.50%EV +5.09%E +1.13%K +1.45%G +0.074%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.33%EV -2.38%E -0.622%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-09 16:24
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.74%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.19%EV +1.58%E +0.364%K +0.473%G +0.007%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07%EV -1.61%E -0.418%K -0.564%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 16:19
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.74%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.19%EV +1.58%E +0.364%K +0.473%G +0.007%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07%EV -1.61%E -0.418%K -0.564%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 16:19
Pinnacle1.87I 53.48%NM 51.97%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.92%EV -0.985%E -0.232%K -0.304%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.11%EV -1.10%E -0.284%K -0.382%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-09 16:20
Coolbet1.90I 52.63%NM 51.22%EV -2.93%E -1.54%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.17%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.61%EV -2.89%E -0.760%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-09 16:09
Marathon Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 51.28%EV -3.44%E -1.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.64%EV -3.40%E -0.899%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-09 16:24
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.53%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 16:25
Bovada1.81I 55.25%NM 52.43%EV -7.52%E -4.16%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -2.89%E -0.760%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 16:25
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 16:14
Tipico (DE)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.33%EV -9.57%E -5.41%K -12.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -0.331%E -0.085%K -0.114%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 16:14
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -3.09%E -0.744%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 16:14
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -3.09%E -0.744%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 16:14
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 50.37%EV -1.39%E -0.722%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.92%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-09 15:55
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 51.16%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-09 16:20
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 50.98%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 16:05
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 16:25
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -6.50%E -3.55%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -5.42%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -8.51%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 16:23
BetUS1.84I 54.35%NM 52.05%EV -5.99%E -3.26%K -7.13%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.71%EV -5.66%E -1.40%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.25%EV +0.947%E +0.240%K +0.321%G +0.003%4.4%2026-05-09 16:14
ATG (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 49.51%EV +0.139%E +0.071%K +0.145%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-09 15:54
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.90%EV -1.39%E -0.722%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-09 15:55
Svenska Spel1.93I 51.81%NM 49.90%EV -1.39%E -0.722%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-09 15:55
Codere (IT)1.86I 53.76%NM 50.99%EV -4.97%E -2.67%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 16:25
Betway1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -3.95%E -2.10%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 16:14
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 16:14
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 16:04
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 16:19
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -2.89%E -0.760%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 16:25
NetBet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 16:24
Casumo1.89I 52.91%NM 50.09%EV -3.44%E -1.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 15:54
Grosvenor1.89I 52.91%NM 50.09%EV -3.44%E -1.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 15:54
Bally Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.09%EV -3.44%E -1.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 15:54
betPARX1.89I 52.91%NM 50.09%EV -3.44%E -1.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 15:54
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 16:04
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 16:04
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -3.95%E -2.10%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 15:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -3.95%E -2.10%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 15:54
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -3.95%E -2.10%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 15:54
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 16:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 16:04
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 16:04
BetRivers1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 15:54
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 16:14
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -9.28%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 15:54
Winamax (DE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -7.01%E -3.85%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -1.61%E -0.418%K -0.564%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 16:24
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -7.01%E -3.85%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 16:15
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 49.77%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 15:55
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 50.64%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -9.28%E -2.61%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 16:14
theScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -0.331%E -0.085%K -0.114%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 15:55
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 49.67%EV -2.93%E -1.54%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 15:55
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 16:04
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.17%EV -5.48%E -2.96%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -5.44%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 16:25
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 15:54
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -4.46%E -2.38%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 15:55
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-09 16:25
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.55%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-09 16:04
Bet Right1.86I 53.76%NM 50.03%EV -4.97%E -2.67%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.60%E -3.67%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -4.16%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 15:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.15%EV -8.04%E -4.46%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.76%EV -18.27%E -5.22%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -18.22%E -5.69%K -8.28%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-09 16:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.85%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.5%2026-05-09 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.85%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.63%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.5%2026-05-09 16:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.98%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.46%0.7%2026-05-09 16:25
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.24%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.44%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.32%1.3%2026-05-09 16:25
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.43%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.19%1.8%2026-05-09 16:25
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 52.97%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-09 16:20