The School of Odds
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Athletic Bilbao v Elche CF

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Athletic Bilbao (Local)

Prediction 58.97%1.70fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.912%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.33%58.96%59.16%60.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.571.571.6767.11%63.51%63.69%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elche CF (Visit)

Prediction 17.21%5.81fair odd
EV +2.24%
Edge +0.377%
Kelly +0.453%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 5.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.31%17.35%17.02%19.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.355.455.9421.28%18.69%18.35%16.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.82%4.20fair odd
EV +0.280%
Edge +0.067%
Kelly +0.087%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.53%23.69%23.82%24.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.963.994.2127.78%25.28%25.06%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Bilbao (Local): 58.97%; Elche CF (Visit): 17.21%; Draw: 23.82%. For Elche CF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.94, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 60.04%EV -3.29%E -2.01%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.94I 16.84%NM 16.58%EV +2.24%E +0.377%K +0.453%G +0.010%4.21I 23.75%NM 23.39%EV +0.280%E +0.067%K +0.087%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-04 13:40
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.63%EV -8.01%E -5.13%K -14.30%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -0.171%E -0.029%K -0.036%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -2.34%E -0.571%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 08:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.42%E -4.73%K -13.02%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.51%EV -1.89%E -0.332%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 17:40
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.92%EV -9.78%E -6.39%K -18.45%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.35%EV -1.89%E -0.332%K -0.403%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -2.34%E -0.571%K -0.755%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 20:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.99%EV -5.06%E -3.14%K -8.30%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV -3.61%E -0.645%K -0.785%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -5.91%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 18:17
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.12%EV -1.52%E -0.912%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.49%EV -4.47%E -0.806%K -0.983%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.39%EV -5.20%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-01 13:59
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -7.42%E -4.73%K -13.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -5.33%E -0.970%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV +0.042%E +0.010%K +0.013%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 08:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.79%EV -6.83%E -4.32%K -11.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.33%E -0.970%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -2.34%E -0.571%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 08:35
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -8.60%E -5.55%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -5.33%E -0.970%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 20:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -6.83%E -4.32%K -11.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -5.33%E -0.970%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.49%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 17:40
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -11.55%E -7.70%K -23.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -5.33%E -0.970%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 20:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.97%EV -9.19%E -5.97%K -17.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.82%EV -7.06%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -10.68%E -2.85%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-30 17:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.39%EV -12.14%E -8.15%K -24.77%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.70%EV -8.78%E -1.66%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.92%EV -11.87%E -3.21%K -4.40%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 17:40
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.45%EV -7.42%E -4.73%K -13.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -9.64%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -2.34%E -0.571%K -0.755%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 09:19
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.40%EV -7.42%E -4.73%K -13.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -9.64%E -1.84%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -9.49%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.00%EV -8.01%E -5.13%K -14.30%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -10.50%E -2.02%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -5.91%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.79%EV -5.65%E -3.53%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -13.94%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -7.10%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 09:25
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.79%EV -5.65%E -3.53%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.49%EV -13.94%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -7.10%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 09:25
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -8.60%E -5.55%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -13.94%E -2.79%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -9.49%E -2.50%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-31 07:30
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.33%EV -2.70%E -1.64%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -15.66%E -3.20%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.36%EV -3.53%E -0.872%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 18:15
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.33%EV -2.70%E -1.64%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -15.66%E -3.20%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.36%EV -3.53%E -0.872%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.61%EV -11.55%E -7.70%K -23.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.39%EV -19.10%E -4.06%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.00%EV -14.25%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-30 18:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 55.30%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.21%16.7%2026-09-01 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 53.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 23.53%2.56I 39.06%NM 22.98%70.0%2026-09-04 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 53.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 23.53%2.56I 39.06%NM 22.98%70.0%2026-09-04 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 53.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 23.53%2.56I 39.06%NM 22.98%70.0%2026-09-04 13:40
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 35.73%1.59I 62.89%NM 28.54%1.27I 78.74%NM 35.73%120.4%2026-08-30 18:39