La escuela de los momios

Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona

Inicio: 2026-03-07 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Athletic Bilbao (Local)

Predicción 20.38%4.91momio equitativo
EV +0.249%
Ventaja +0.051%
Kelly +0.063%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.46%20.37%20.47%21.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.204.664.704.9223.81%21.46%21.28%20.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Barcelona (Visitante)

Predicción 57.68%1.73momio equitativo
EV -0.785%
Ventaja -0.456%
Kelly -1.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.21%57.63%57.59%59.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.571.651.651.7263.69%60.77%60.61%58.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 21.94%4.56momio equitativo
EV -0.827%
Ventaja -0.183%
Kelly -0.235%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.52

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.01%22.00%21.95%24.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.224.204.5228.57%23.71%23.81%22.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet4.92I 20.33%NM 19.73%EV +0.249%E +0.051%K +0.063%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.46%EV -4.25%E -2.56%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.81%EV -2.36%E -0.531%K -0.685%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-07 19:54
ATG (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.94%EV -0.159%E -0.032%K -0.041%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.80%EV -0.785%E -0.456%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.26%EV -7.85%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.4%2026-03-07 19:20
Marathon Bet4.90I 20.41%NM 19.86%EV -0.159%E -0.032%K -0.041%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.27%EV -3.67%E -2.20%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.87%EV -2.36%E -0.531%K -0.685%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-07 19:50
Unibet (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%EV -0.159%E -0.032%K -0.041%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.09%EV -1.94%E -1.14%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -7.85%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-07 19:19
Svenska Spel4.90I 20.41%NM 19.81%EV -0.159%E -0.032%K -0.041%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.09%EV -1.94%E -1.14%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -7.85%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-07 19:19
Unibet (NL)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -0.159%E -0.032%K -0.041%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.38%EV -3.09%E -1.84%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.95%EV -7.85%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-07 19:19
FanDuel4.90I 20.41%NM 19.46%EV -0.159%E -0.032%K -0.041%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.87%EV -6.55%E -4.05%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -3.46%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 19:54
Parions Sport (FR)4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -1.18%E -0.243%K -0.306%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.30%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.86%EV -3.46%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-07 19:50
Pinnacle4.83I 20.70%NM 20.04%EV -1.59%E -0.328%K -0.414%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.31%EV -4.25%E -2.56%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.65%EV -1.92%E -0.430%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-07 19:54
LowVig.ag4.82I 20.75%NM 20.05%EV -1.79%E -0.371%K -0.468%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.57%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.38%EV -0.827%E -0.183%K -0.235%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 17:19
BetOnline.ag4.82I 20.75%NM 20.05%EV -1.79%E -0.371%K -0.468%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.57%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.38%EV -0.827%E -0.183%K -0.235%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 17:19
Bet Victor4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -2.20%E -0.458%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.78%EV -7.13%E -4.43%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -3.46%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 19:54
Tipico (DE)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -2.20%E -0.458%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%EV -7.71%E -4.82%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.46%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 19:50
Grosvenor4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -2.20%E -0.458%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.42%EV -5.40%E -3.29%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -10.04%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 19:54
TABtouch4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -2.20%E -0.458%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.42%EV -5.40%E -3.29%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -10.04%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 19:55
LeoVegas (SE)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -2.20%E -0.458%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.42%EV -5.40%E -3.29%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -10.04%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 19:54
betPARX4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -2.20%E -0.458%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.42%EV -5.40%E -3.29%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -10.04%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 19:54
Bally Bet4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -2.20%E -0.458%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.42%EV -5.40%E -3.29%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -10.04%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 19:54
Unibet4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -2.20%E -0.458%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.94%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -12.24%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 19:19
Casumo4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -2.20%E -0.458%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.94%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -12.24%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 19:19
PMU (FR)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -2.20%E -0.458%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.64%EV -7.71%E -4.82%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.65%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-07 19:55
BetUS4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -3.22%E -0.677%K -0.857%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.06%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.77%EV -3.46%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-07 19:54
Everygame4.75I 21.05%NM 20.10%EV -3.22%E -0.677%K -0.857%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.86%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.05%EV -5.00%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 19:49
Sky Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -3.22%E -0.677%K -0.857%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.09%EV -7.71%E -4.82%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -1.27%E -0.281%K -0.362%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 19:49
SportsBet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -3.22%E -0.677%K -0.857%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.45%EV -7.13%E -4.43%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.73%EV -5.00%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 19:49
Betway4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -3.22%E -0.677%K -0.857%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.45%EV -7.13%E -4.43%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.73%EV -5.00%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 19:54
BetRivers4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -3.22%E -0.677%K -0.857%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.97%EV -5.40%E -3.29%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -12.24%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 19:19
Paddy Power4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -3.22%E -0.677%K -0.857%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.21%EV -7.71%E -4.82%K -12.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -7.85%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:49
DraftKings4.70I 21.28%NM 20.48%EV -4.23%E -0.901%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.64%EV -3.67%E -2.20%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.88%EV -3.46%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-07 19:49
NordicBet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.39%EV -4.23%E -0.901%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.05%EV -3.09%E -1.84%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55%EV -6.75%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 19:44
Betsson4.70I 21.28%NM 20.39%EV -4.23%E -0.901%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.05%EV -3.09%E -1.84%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55%EV -6.75%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 19:45
Codere (IT)4.70I 21.28%NM 20.31%EV -4.23%E -0.901%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.50%EV -4.25%E -2.56%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -5.65%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 19:55
LeoVegas4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -4.23%E -0.901%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.14%EV -7.13%E -4.43%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.29%EV -13.33%E -3.38%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 19:20
Betclic (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.39%EV -3.67%E -2.20%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%EV -3.46%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 19:04
theScore Bet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.39%EV -3.67%E -2.20%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%EV -3.46%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 19:54
Unibet (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.24%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -6.75%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 19:54
Unibet (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -6.27%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.24%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -6.75%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 19:54
TAB4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -1.27%E -0.281%K -0.362%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 19:00
Fanatics4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.83%EV -3.67%E -2.20%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -5.65%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 19:10
Coral4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -3.67%E -2.20%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.85%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 19:54
BetMGM4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.54%EV -3.67%E -2.20%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.85%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 19:54
Winamax (DE)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.56%EV -5.40%E -3.29%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.46%EV -3.46%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 19:44
Betr (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.53%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -10.04%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 19:55
NetBet (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.13%EV -5.98%E -3.67%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.85%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 19:44
William Hill4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -12.24%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 19:54
Mr Green (SE)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -12.24%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 19:50
PlayUp4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.83%EV -5.98%E -3.67%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -10.04%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 19:44
LiveScore Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.34%EV -5.98%E -3.67%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -13.33%E -3.38%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 19:55
Virgin Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.65%EV -7.13%E -4.43%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.09%EV -13.33%E -3.38%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-07 19:54
Winamax (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.31%EV -6.55%E -4.05%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -5.65%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 19:54
Neds4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -10.04%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 19:55
Ladbrokes (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -10.04%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 19:55
Bet Right4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.26%EV -4.82%E -2.92%K -7.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -10.04%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 19:54
Fliff4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.71%EV -7.13%E -4.43%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.54%EV -11.14%E -2.75%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 19:54
Ladbrokes (UK)4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -11.77%E -2.72%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.64%EV -1.94%E -1.14%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -7.85%E -1.87%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 19:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.33I 23.09%NM 20.02%EV -11.77%E -2.72%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 55.21%EV -9.44%E -6.01%K -16.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.77%EV -23.21%E -6.63%K -9.28%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-07 19:54
BoyleSports4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -14.42%E -3.43%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -6.55%E -4.05%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -12.24%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-07 19:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.20%1.69I 59.17%NM 59.09%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.71%0.1%2026-03-07 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.23%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63%0.5%2026-03-07 19:50
Matchbook5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.23%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63%0.5%2026-03-07 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.07%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.38%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.9%2026-03-07 19:55
Kalshi5.26I 19.01%NM 18.85%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.36%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.79%0.9%2026-03-07 19:55
Smarkets5.10I 19.61%NM 19.37%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.15%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.48%1.2%2026-03-07 19:55