L’École des cotes

Alavés v Villarreal

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-13 20:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Alavés (Local)

Prévision 27.51%3.63cote équitable
EV +4.54%
Avantage +1.19%
Kelly +1.62%
Croissance +0.074%

avec la cote maximale 3.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.48%27.43%27.59%28.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.253.443.403.8030.77%29.06%29.41%26.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Villarreal (Visiteur)

Prévision 44.50%2.25cote équitable
EV -0.776%
Avantage -0.348%
Kelly -0.631%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
42.67%44.62%44.36%46.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.122.122.2350.00%47.16%47.17%44.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.99%3.57cote équitable
EV -1.18%
Avantage -0.334%
Kelly -0.466%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.53

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.06%27.96%28.05%30.06%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.353.353.5334.72%29.85%29.85%28.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet3.80I 26.32%NM 25.48%EV +4.54%E +1.19%K +1.62%G +0.074%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.12%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.40%EV -4.54%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-13 19:55
LowVig.ag3.68I 27.17%NM 26.23%EV +1.24%E +0.336%K +0.462%G +0.006%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.42%EV -7.45%E -3.58%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -1.18%E -0.334%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-13 19:54
BetOnline.ag3.68I 27.17%NM 26.23%EV +1.24%E +0.336%K +0.462%G +0.006%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.42%EV -7.45%E -3.58%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -1.18%E -0.334%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-13 19:55
Pinnacle3.65I 27.40%NM 26.62%EV +0.413%E +0.113%K +0.156%G +0.001%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.62%EV -5.23%E -2.45%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.76%EV -2.02%E -0.577%K -0.808%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-13 19:50
Marathon Bet3.62I 27.62%NM 26.55%EV -0.412%E -0.114%K -0.157%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.34%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.11%EV -4.26%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-13 19:54
Unibet (NL)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%EV -0.963%E -0.267%K -0.370%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.62%EV -3.45%E -1.59%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.48%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-13 19:54
BetUS3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -0.963%E -0.267%K -0.370%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-13 19:55
Bovada3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -0.963%E -0.267%K -0.370%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.24%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:53
Everygame3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -0.963%E -0.267%K -0.370%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.24%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:50
Tipico (DE)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -0.963%E -0.267%K -0.370%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -8.78%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 19:45
ATG (SE)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.50%EV -2.34%E -0.659%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.78%EV -0.776%E -0.348%K -0.631%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.72%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.4%2026-03-13 19:45
Unibet (SE)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -2.34%E -0.659%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.34%EV -3.00%E -1.38%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-13 19:55
Svenska Spel3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -2.34%E -0.659%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.34%EV -3.00%E -1.38%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-13 19:55
Betsson3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -2.34%E -0.659%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:55
NordicBet3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -2.34%E -0.659%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:55
Betclic (FR)3.53I 28.33%NM 27.29%EV -2.89%E -0.818%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.39%EV -3.45%E -1.59%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.33%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 19:50
Coolbet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.74%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.13%EV -2.11%E -0.959%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -3.42%E -0.991%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-13 19:44
Parions Sport (FR)3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.69%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.85%EV -3.42%E -0.991%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 19:50
FanDuel3.50I 28.57%NM 27.34%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.51%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.15%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 19:40
Casumo3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -4.78%E -2.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 19:55
Grosvenor3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -4.78%E -2.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 19:54
Bally Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -4.78%E -2.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 19:55
betPARX3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -4.78%E -2.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 19:55
DraftKings3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.34%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 19:35
Codere (IT)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.89%E -1.80%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:45
Unibet3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:45
TABtouch3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:45
Fanatics3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 19:50
SportsBet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 19:40
Bet Victor3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -2.02%E -0.577%K -0.808%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 19:43
Unibet (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 19:45
Sky Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-13 19:39
PMU (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 19:40
Paddy Power3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 19:40
BetRivers3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -9.02%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-13 19:44
PlayUp3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -7.45%E -3.58%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%EV -9.02%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-13 19:55
Virgin Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.65%EV -8.34%E -4.05%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.02%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 19:55
LiveScore Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.65%EV -8.34%E -4.05%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.02%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 19:55
LeoVegas3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -7.90%E -3.81%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 19:55
Unibet (FR)3.38I 29.59%NM 27.64%EV -7.01%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.87%EV -5.23%E -2.45%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.49%EV -8.18%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-13 19:54
Winamax (DE)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -7.84%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -3.42%E -0.991%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:50
NetBet (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -7.84%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-13 19:55
Betway3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 19:45
Coral3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 19:55
theScore Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 19:45
TAB3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 19:55
Bet Right3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 19:54
Betr (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 19:50
Winamax (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-13 19:50
Mr Green (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-13 19:55
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-13 19:54
BoyleSports3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -11.01%E -5.50%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-13 19:54
Neds3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -2.11%E -0.959%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -2.11%E -0.959%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-13 19:55
Fliff3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -8.78%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-13 19:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 26.64%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.29%EV -11.01%E -5.50%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.06%EV -19.38%E -6.73%K -10.31%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-13 19:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.7%2026-03-13 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.7%2026-03-13 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.7%2026-03-13 19:55
Matchbook3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.98%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%1.1%2026-03-13 19:55
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06%1.8%2026-03-13 19:55
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.14%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-03-13 18:20