La escuela de los momios

Alavés v Villarreal

Inicio: 2026-03-13 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Alavés (Local)

Predicción 27.51%3.63momio equitativo
EV +4.54%
Ventaja +1.19%
Kelly +1.62%
Crecimiento +0.074%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.48%27.43%27.59%28.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.443.403.8030.77%29.06%29.41%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Villarreal (Visitante)

Predicción 44.50%2.25momio equitativo
EV -0.776%
Ventaja -0.348%
Kelly -0.631%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.67%44.62%44.36%46.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.122.122.2350.00%47.16%47.17%44.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.99%3.57momio equitativo
EV -1.18%
Ventaja -0.334%
Kelly -0.466%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.06%27.96%28.05%30.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.353.353.5334.72%29.85%29.85%28.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.80I 26.32%NM 25.48%EV +4.54%E +1.19%K +1.62%G +0.074%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.12%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.40%EV -4.54%E -1.33%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-13 19:55
LowVig.ag3.68I 27.17%NM 26.23%EV +1.24%E +0.336%K +0.462%G +0.006%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.42%EV -7.45%E -3.58%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -1.18%E -0.334%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-13 19:54
BetOnline.ag3.68I 27.17%NM 26.23%EV +1.24%E +0.336%K +0.462%G +0.006%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.42%EV -7.45%E -3.58%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.35%EV -1.18%E -0.334%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-13 19:55
Pinnacle3.65I 27.40%NM 26.62%EV +0.413%E +0.113%K +0.156%G +0.001%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.62%EV -5.23%E -2.45%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.76%EV -2.02%E -0.577%K -0.808%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-13 19:50
Marathon Bet3.62I 27.62%NM 26.55%EV -0.412%E -0.114%K -0.157%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.34%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.11%EV -4.26%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-13 19:54
Unibet (NL)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%EV -0.963%E -0.267%K -0.370%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.62%EV -3.45%E -1.59%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.48%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-13 19:54
BetUS3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -0.963%E -0.267%K -0.370%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-13 19:55
Bovada3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -0.963%E -0.267%K -0.370%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.24%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:53
Everygame3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -0.963%E -0.267%K -0.370%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.24%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:50
Tipico (DE)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -0.963%E -0.267%K -0.370%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -8.78%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 19:45
ATG (SE)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.50%EV -2.34%E -0.659%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.78%EV -0.776%E -0.348%K -0.631%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.72%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.4%2026-03-13 19:45
Unibet (SE)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -2.34%E -0.659%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.34%EV -3.00%E -1.38%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-13 19:55
Svenska Spel3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -2.34%E -0.659%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.34%EV -3.00%E -1.38%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-13 19:55
Betsson3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -2.34%E -0.659%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:55
NordicBet3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -2.34%E -0.659%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 19:55
Betclic (FR)3.53I 28.33%NM 27.29%EV -2.89%E -0.818%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.39%EV -3.45%E -1.59%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.33%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 19:50
Coolbet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.74%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.13%EV -2.11%E -0.959%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -3.42%E -0.991%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-13 19:44
Parions Sport (FR)3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.69%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.85%EV -3.42%E -0.991%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 19:50
FanDuel3.50I 28.57%NM 27.34%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.51%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.15%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 19:40
Casumo3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -4.78%E -2.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 19:55
Grosvenor3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -4.78%E -2.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 19:54
Bally Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -4.78%E -2.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 19:55
betPARX3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -4.78%E -2.23%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 19:55
DraftKings3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.34%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 19:35
Codere (IT)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -3.89%E -1.80%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:45
Unibet3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:45
TABtouch3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -5.09%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:45
Fanatics3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 19:50
SportsBet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 19:40
Bet Victor3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -2.02%E -0.577%K -0.808%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 19:43
Unibet (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 19:45
Sky Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-13 19:39
PMU (FR)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 19:40
Paddy Power3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 19:40
BetRivers3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -5.67%E -2.67%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -9.02%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-13 19:44
PlayUp3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -7.45%E -3.58%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%EV -9.02%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-13 19:55
Virgin Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.65%EV -8.34%E -4.05%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.02%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 19:55
LiveScore Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.65%EV -8.34%E -4.05%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.02%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 19:55
LeoVegas3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -6.46%E -1.90%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -7.90%E -3.81%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 19:55
Unibet (FR)3.38I 29.59%NM 27.64%EV -7.01%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.87%EV -5.23%E -2.45%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.49%EV -8.18%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-13 19:54
Winamax (DE)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -7.84%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -3.42%E -0.991%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 19:50
NetBet (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -7.84%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-13 19:55
Betway3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 19:45
Coral3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 19:55
theScore Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 19:45
TAB3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 19:55
Bet Right3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 19:54
Betr (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 19:50
Winamax (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.12%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -6.22%E -1.86%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-13 19:50
Mr Green (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-13 19:55
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.56%E -3.12%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-13 19:54
BoyleSports3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -11.01%E -5.50%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-13 19:54
Neds3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -2.11%E -0.959%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -2.11%E -0.959%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.62%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-13 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.34%E -2.02%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.82%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-13 19:55
Fliff3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -8.78%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.20%EV -10.42%E -3.26%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-13 19:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 26.64%EV -10.59%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.29%EV -11.01%E -5.50%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.06%EV -19.38%E -6.73%K -10.31%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-13 19:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.7%2026-03-13 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.7%2026-03-13 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.7%2026-03-13 19:55
Matchbook3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.98%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%1.1%2026-03-13 19:55
Smarkets3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06%1.8%2026-03-13 19:55
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.14%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-03-13 18:20