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Alavés v Villarreal

2026-08-28 19:30 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés (Local)

Prediction 33.50%2.98fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.742%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.88%33.57%33.39%34.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.772.802.9239.22%36.10%35.71%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Villarreal (Visit)

Prediction 39.73%2.52fair odd
EV +0.121%
Edge +0.048%
Kelly +0.080%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.05%39.73%39.81%40.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.362.352.5245.45%42.41%42.55%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.76%3.74fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -0.860%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.65%26.70%26.80%27.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.503.6230.30%28.68%28.57%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alavés (Local): 33.50%; Villarreal (Visit): 39.73%; Draw: 26.76%. For Villarreal (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.517. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.520, producing a positive expected value of +0.121%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.72%EV -2.17%E -0.742%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.08%EV +0.121%E +0.048%K +0.080%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 27.20%EV -3.11%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-23 18:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.67%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.10%EV -1.47%E -0.592%K -0.992%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.24%EV -4.72%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-23 18:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -2.66%E -1.09%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 16:59
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -2.66%E -1.09%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 16:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.26%EV -3.45%E -1.42%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 18:24
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -4.65%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.65%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 17:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -4.65%E -1.94%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 17:04
Pinnacle🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.66%EV -5.18%E -1.83%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.02%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.31%EV -3.11%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 17:05
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.60%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.53%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 18:24
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -7.86%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 17:03
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -5.44%E -2.29%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:24
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -6.63%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -3.65%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 17:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.63%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 18:34
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -6.63%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 16:54
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -6.63%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 16:54
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -6.63%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 17:05
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.86%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.63%E -2.82%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 17:04
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -8.62%E -3.75%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -3.65%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-23 16:49
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.62%E -3.75%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-23 16:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.18%EV -7.19%E -2.60%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.62%E -3.75%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.87%EV -8.47%E -2.48%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 18:25
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.62%E -3.75%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 17:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.62%E -3.75%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 18:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.86%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.62%E -3.75%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 18:24
Everygame🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.62%E -3.75%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 16:59
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.33%EV -12.22%E -4.66%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -10.61%E -4.71%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 17:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -14.56%E -5.71%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.53%EV -12.59%E -5.72%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -11.68%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-23 18:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.66%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-08-23 17:30
Smarkets◎2.90I 34.48%NM 33.41%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.04%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%3.2%2026-08-23 18:55
Matchbook◎2.90I 34.48%NM 33.41%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.04%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%3.2%2026-08-23 18:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 33.57%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.49%3.4%2026-08-23 18:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 33.57%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.49%3.4%2026-08-23 18:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 33.44%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.76%3.8%2026-08-23 18:15