Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés v CA Osasuna

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés (Local)

Prediction 34.82%2.87fair odd
EV +0.282%
Edge +0.098%
Kelly +0.150%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.22%34.84%34.92%37.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.662.652.8840.32%37.53%37.74%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Osasuna (Visit)

Prediction 34.52%2.90fair odd
EV +0.103%
Edge +0.036%
Kelly +0.054%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.08%34.51%34.42%35.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.752.752.9040.00%36.31%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.66%3.26fair odd
EV +0.264%
Edge +0.081%
Kelly +0.116%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.61%30.66%30.66%31.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.103.103.2736.36%32.23%32.26%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alavés (Local): 34.82%; CA Osasuna (Visit): 34.52%; Draw: 30.66%. For Alavés (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.282%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.56%EV +0.282%E +0.098%K +0.150%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.15%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.28%EV -5.26%E -1.70%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.56%EV +0.282%E +0.098%K +0.150%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.15%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.28%EV -5.26%E -1.70%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 18:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.01%EV -0.763%E -0.268%K -0.412%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.12%EV -4.73%E -1.71%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.87%EV -3.72%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-05 18:54
Pinnacle🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.41%EV -1.46%E -0.516%K -0.797%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.78%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.81%EV -3.11%E -0.984%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-05 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.77%EV -1.81%E -0.641%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.01%EV -6.11%E -2.25%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.48%E -2.13%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 18:49
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.77%EV -1.81%E -0.641%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.01%EV -6.11%E -2.25%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.48%E -2.13%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 18:50
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -2.50%E -0.894%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 18:53
BetUS🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -2.50%E -0.894%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.15%E -2.66%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 18:54
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -2.50%E -0.894%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.50%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 18:55
Everygame🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -2.50%E -0.894%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -8.53%E -3.22%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 18:54
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -2.50%E -0.894%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -10.25%E -3.94%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 18:54
Coolbet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 35.03%EV -3.55%E -1.28%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.17%EV -1.97%E -0.693%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.80%EV -3.42%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-05 18:55
1xBet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 35.16%EV -3.90%E -1.41%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.16%EV -4.73%E -1.71%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.68%EV +0.264%E +0.081%K +0.116%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-05 18:55
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.50%EV -4.24%E -1.54%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 18:45
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -4.24%E -1.54%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -10.25%E -3.94%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 18:54
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.88%E -0.588%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 18:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 18:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 18:44
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 18:54
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 18:53
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 18:54
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 18:44
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -5.99%E -2.22%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -10.25%E -3.94%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-05 18:55
Bovada🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.53%EV -7.03%E -2.63%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.60%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.64%EV -7.73%E -2.92%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.48%EV +0.103%E +0.036%K +0.054%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.88%EV -0.350%E -0.108%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-05 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.64%EV -7.73%E -2.92%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.09%EV -4.38%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.27%EV -4.34%E -1.39%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-05 18:53
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -7.73%E -2.92%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -7.73%E -2.92%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -8.53%E -3.22%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -3.42%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 18:55
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -7.73%E -2.92%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -8.53%E -3.22%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -3.42%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.82%EV -8.42%E -3.20%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.39%EV +0.103%E +0.036%K +0.054%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.79%EV -0.350%E -0.108%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.82%EV -8.42%E -3.20%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.39%EV +0.103%E +0.036%K +0.054%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.79%EV -0.350%E -0.108%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 18:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.82%EV -8.42%E -3.20%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.39%EV +0.103%E +0.036%K +0.054%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.79%EV -0.350%E -0.108%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 18:05
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.96%EV -8.77%E -3.35%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -9.47%E -3.64%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 18:35
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -9.47%E -3.64%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -9.47%E -3.64%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -9.47%E -3.64%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -9.47%E -3.64%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-05 18:54
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -1.62%E -0.569%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -1.88%E -0.588%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 18:04
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -1.62%E -0.569%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -1.88%E -0.588%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 18:05
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -1.62%E -0.569%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -1.88%E -0.588%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 18:05
Bally Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -1.62%E -0.569%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -1.88%E -0.588%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 18:05
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.76%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.48%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -3.42%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.76%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.48%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -3.42%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 18:05
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.76%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.48%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -3.42%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 17:34
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.76%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.48%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -3.42%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -6.80%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -6.48%E -2.13%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.47%EV -11.21%E -4.40%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.87%EV -7.84%E -2.93%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -9.55%E -3.24%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-05 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -12.95%E -5.18%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -3.35%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 18:04
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -12.95%E -5.18%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-05 17:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.38%EV -12.95%E -5.18%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.38%EV -13.70%E -5.48%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.25%EV -15.68%E -5.70%K -8.96%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-05 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.01%EV -13.65%E -5.50%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 18:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.01%EV -13.65%E -5.50%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -5.07%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.08%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.29%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.62%0.5%2026-04-05 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.08%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.29%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.62%0.5%2026-04-05 18:55
Matchbook2.94I 34.01%NM 33.85%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.62%0.5%2026-04-05 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.21%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%0.7%2026-04-05 18:55
Smarkets2.90I 34.48%NM 33.99%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.20%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80%1.4%2026-04-05 18:55
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 33.96%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.97%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.07%3.0%2026-04-05 18:55