La escuela de los momios

Alavés v Athletic Bilbao

Inicio: 2026-05-02 16:30 UTC

Final: Alavés 2–4 Athletic Bilbao

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Alavés (Local)

Predicción 34.04%2.94momio equitativo
EV -1.27%
Ventaja -0.439%
Kelly -0.670%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.95%34.06%34.01%35.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.762.752.9038.02%36.18%36.36%34.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Athletic Bilbao (Visitante)

Predicción 36.76%2.72momio equitativo
EV -0.750%
Ventaja -0.278%
Kelly -0.441%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.03%36.76%36.80%37.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.572.582.7041.67%38.97%38.76%37.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.20%3.42momio equitativo
EV -1.31%
Ventaja -0.389%
Kelly -0.552%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.15%29.18%29.20%30.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.213.203.3835.71%31.10%31.25%29.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet2.90I 34.48%NM 33.55%EV -1.27%E -0.439%K -0.670%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.04%EV -0.750%E -0.278%K -0.441%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-02 15:36
Pinnacle2.87I 34.84%NM 33.90%EV -2.30%E -0.800%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.71%EV -2.59%E -0.977%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.39%EV -3.36%E -1.01%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-02 16:15
Marathon Bet2.86I 34.97%NM 33.90%EV -2.64%E -0.922%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.72%EV -2.96%E -1.12%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 15:49
ATG (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 34.26%EV -2.98%E -1.04%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.16%EV -0.750%E -0.278%K -0.441%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.58%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-02 16:05
Unibet (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 34.02%EV -2.98%E -1.04%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.59%EV -2.59%E -0.977%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 16:06
Unibet (NL)2.85I 35.09%NM 34.02%EV -2.98%E -1.04%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.59%EV -2.59%E -0.977%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 16:05
Svenska Spel2.85I 35.09%NM 34.02%EV -2.98%E -1.04%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.59%EV -2.59%E -0.977%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 16:06
BetOnline.ag2.85I 35.09%NM 33.87%EV -2.98%E -1.04%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.43%EV -2.59%E -0.977%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.70%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 15:30
LowVig.ag2.85I 35.09%NM 33.87%EV -2.98%E -1.04%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.43%EV -2.59%E -0.977%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.70%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 15:31
NordicBet2.82I 35.46%NM 33.78%EV -4.00%E -1.42%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -5.16%E -2.00%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 15:30
Betsson2.82I 35.46%NM 33.78%EV -4.00%E -1.42%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -5.16%E -2.00%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 15:30
BetUS2.81I 35.59%NM 34.10%EV -4.34%E -1.54%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.86%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.04%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-02 15:05
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 34.18%EV -4.68%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.81%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.00%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-02 15:25
theScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -4.68%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.27%EV -6.26%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 15:25
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -4.68%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 15:51
FanDuel2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -4.68%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 15:31
Grosvenor2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -4.68%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 16:05
Casumo2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -4.68%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 16:05
betPARX2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -4.68%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 16:05
Bally Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -4.68%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 16:05
Everygame2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -4.68%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.10%EV -6.26%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 15:25
Tipico (DE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -4.68%E -1.67%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.26%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 16:01
Bovada2.78I 35.97%NM 34.08%EV -5.36%E -1.93%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.30%EV -4.06%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 16:14
1xBet2.77I 36.10%NM 35.00%EV -5.70%E -2.06%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.31%EV -1.85%E -0.694%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.69%EV -1.31%E -0.389%K -0.552%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 16:20
Betclic (FR)2.77I 36.10%NM 34.12%EV -5.70%E -2.06%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -6.26%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.82%EV -4.23%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 16:09
Codere (IT)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.59%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 16:00
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 16:00
Sky Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 15:50
Bet Victor2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 16:04
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 15:05
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 14:50
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 14:30
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 07:55
TABtouch2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -6.26%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:05
Unibet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -6.26%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -6.26%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 16:05
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 15:25
BetRivers2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -6.26%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 16:05
PMU (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -6.26%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 16:04
Unibet (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 16:00
Paddy Power2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 15:45
William Hill2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 07:50
Mr Green (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 07:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 15:05
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 15:05
Winamax (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 16:00
Bet Right2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 15:25
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 15:30
BoyleSports2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 15:25
TAB2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 15:55
NetBet (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.05%EV -9.20%E -3.73%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 15:30
LeoVegas2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 16:05
Virgin Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 16:01
LiveScore Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 16:05
Winamax (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.52%EV -9.78%E -3.69%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -9.94%E -4.06%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 16:00
Fliff2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -9.78%E -3.69%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -8.10%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 16:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 32.95%EV -10.47%E -3.98%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.11%EV -11.78%E -4.91%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.95%EV -18.25%E -6.52%K -10.14%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-02 15:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.94I 34.01%NM 33.89%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.37%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-05-02 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.94I 34.01%NM 33.89%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.37%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-05-02 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.94I 34.01%NM 33.89%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.37%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-05-02 16:25
Matchbook2.94I 34.01%NM 33.89%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.37%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%0.4%2026-05-02 16:24
Smarkets2.92I 34.25%NM 34.04%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-05-02 16:25
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 33.94%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.91%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.0%2026-05-02 16:05