The School of Odds
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Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Sociedad (Local)

Prediction 39.68%2.52fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.25%39.73%39.67%41.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.332.322.4544.84%42.94%43.10%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Bilbao (Visit)

Prediction 31.59%3.17fair odd
EV +2.34%
Edge +0.723%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.97%31.43%31.58%32.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.983.003.2437.04%33.56%33.33%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.73%3.48fair odd
EV +0.569%
Edge +0.163%
Kelly +0.228%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%28.84%28.75%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.253.303.5034.72%30.79%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Sociedad (Local): 39.68%; Athletic Bilbao (Visit): 31.59%; Draw: 28.73%. For Athletic Bilbao (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.24, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.97%EV -5.96%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.97%EV +2.34%E +0.723%K +1.05%G +0.025%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.07%EV -4.03%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-04 19:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.52%EV -5.57%E -2.34%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.08%E -0.670%K -0.990%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%EV -2.30%E -0.678%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-04 19:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.52%EV -5.57%E -2.34%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.08%E -0.670%K -0.990%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%EV -2.30%E -0.678%K -0.960%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-04 19:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -2.08%E -0.670%K -0.990%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.18%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-04 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.75%EV -3.98%E -1.64%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.54%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.71%EV -3.74%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-04 19:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.45%EV -6.76%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.17%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -3.74%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-04 19:15
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.45%EV -6.76%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.17%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -3.74%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-04 19:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.45%EV -6.76%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.17%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -3.74%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-04 19:15
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.49%EV -7.55%E -3.24%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.18%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-04 19:15
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.49%EV -7.55%E -3.24%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.18%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-04 19:15
Pinnacle🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.48%EV -2.79%E -1.14%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.82%EV -3.97%E -1.31%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.70%EV -3.17%E -0.939%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-04 19:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.43%EV -7.55%E -3.24%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.19%EV -4.61%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.37%EV -4.60%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 19:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.77%E -1.99%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.61%E -2.04%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 19:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -5.96%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -5.18%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 19:55
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -6.76%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.18%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 09:59
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.18%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-04 10:00
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.77%E -1.99%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -10.92%E -3.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 19:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.61%E -2.04%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 15:40
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.80%E -4.60%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 19:55
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.80%E -4.60%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 19:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.80%E -4.60%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 19:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -13.80%E -4.60%K -6.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 19:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.48%EV -5.96%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.72%EV -6.82%E -2.31%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.61%E -2.04%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 19:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.69%EV -7.95%E -3.43%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.53%EV -7.76%E -2.66%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -8.05%E -2.52%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-04 19:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.81%EV -6.76%E -2.87%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -3.74%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 19:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -5.18%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-04 19:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.05%E -2.52%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 19:35
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.05%E -2.52%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 19:53
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.37%EV -11.52%E -5.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -9.49%E -3.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-04 13:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.37%EV -11.52%E -5.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -9.49%E -3.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-04 13:39
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -9.03%E -3.13%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV +0.569%E +0.163%K +0.228%G +0.001%6.8%2026-03-04 19:30
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -9.03%E -3.13%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.18%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-04 19:30
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.08%EV -9.34%E -3.26%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -5.18%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-04 19:30
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -8.74%E -3.80%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -11.55%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -6.61%E -2.04%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-04 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.25%EV -10.72%E -4.77%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -14.71%E -5.45%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -17.25%E -5.99%K -9.17%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-04 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-03-04 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-03-04 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-03-04 19:50