Language:English
Neom v Al-Qadsiah
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Neom (Local)
Prediction 15.55%6.43fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.166%
Kelly +0.196%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.17%15.50%15.69%18.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.435.506.5021.28%18.42%18.18%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Qadsiah (Visit)
Prediction 64.60%1.55fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.42%64.58%64.52%65.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.441.5273.53%69.30%69.69%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.85%5.04fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -0.681%
Kelly -0.857%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.01%19.92%19.79%22.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.354.204.8725.64%22.98%23.81%20.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Neom (Local): 15.55%; Al-Qadsiah (Visit): 64.60%; Draw: 19.85%. For Neom (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.43. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV +1.08%E +0.166%K +0.196%G +0.002% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -8.68%E -1.89%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-24 16:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.66%EV +0.299%E +0.046%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.78%EV -5.69%E -3.90%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.56%EV -8.68%E -1.89%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-24 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -6.70%E -1.12%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -4.40%E -2.97%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -4.71%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-24 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -6.70%E -1.12%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -6.98%E -4.85%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -4.71%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -6.70%E -1.12%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.98%E -4.85%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -10.66%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -6.70%E -1.12%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -7.63%E -5.33%K -17.74%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -10.66%E -2.37%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-24 15:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.99I 16.69%NM 16.14%EV -6.85%E -1.14%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.01%EV -2.46%E -1.63%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.85%EV -3.32%E -0.681%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.38%EV -8.25%E -1.40%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 65.30%EV -10.21%E -7.35%K -26.18%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -6.69%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-24 16:12 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -10.59%E -1.84%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -6.33%E -4.37%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -5.70%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-24 16:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -12.92%E -2.31%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.70%EV -8.92%E -6.33%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -4.71%E -0.980%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-24 16:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -14.47%E -2.63%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -12.65%E -2.87%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-24 16:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -14.47%E -2.63%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.58%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.23%EV -12.65%E -2.87%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-24 16:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -14.47%E -2.63%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -16.62%E -3.96%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -14.47%E -2.63%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -16.62%E -3.96%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -14.47%E -2.63%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -16.62%E -3.96%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-24 15:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -14.47%E -2.63%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -16.62%E -3.96%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-24 16:38 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -14.47%E -2.63%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -16.62%E -3.96%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.92%EV -14.47%E -2.63%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.40%EV -12.15%E -8.93%K -33.75%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.68%EV -11.65%E -2.62%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-24 16:13 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.57%EV -16.03%E -2.97%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 64.39%EV -10.21%E -7.35%K -26.18%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.04%EV -6.69%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-24 16:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.45%EV -23.80%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.49%EV -1.81%E -1.19%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -18.60%E -4.54%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -23.80%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.65%EV -2.46%E -1.63%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -18.60%E -4.54%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -23.80%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.65%EV -2.46%E -1.63%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -18.60%E -4.54%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -23.80%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.65%EV -2.46%E -1.63%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -18.60%E -4.54%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -23.80%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.65%EV -2.46%E -1.63%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -18.60%E -4.54%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -23.80%E -4.86%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.65%EV -2.46%E -1.63%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -18.60%E -4.54%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.45%EV -25.36%E -5.28%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.42%EV -3.75%E -2.52%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -20.59%E -5.15%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.30%EV -25.36%E -5.28%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 59.75%EV -5.04%E -3.43%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.96%EV -20.59%E -5.15%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.30%EV -25.36%E -5.28%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 59.75%EV -5.04%E -3.43%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.96%EV -20.59%E -5.15%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.10%EV -26.14%E -5.50%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 61.42%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -16.62%E -3.96%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-08-24 16:38 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.21%EV -26.91%E -5.73%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 59.85%EV -7.63%E -5.33%K -17.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 21.94%EV -22.57%E -5.79%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.62% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22% | 0.9% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.61% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 0.9% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.61% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 0.9% | 2026-08-24 16:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.51% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.35% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14% | 1.3% | 2026-08-24 16:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.68% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.73% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.59% | 2.1% | 2026-08-24 16:34 |