The School of Odds
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Neom v Al-Kholood

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Neom (Local)

Prediction 49.63%2.01fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -3.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.48%49.63%49.58%52.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.801.801.9458.82%55.62%55.56%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Kholood (Visit)

Prediction 23.89%4.19fair odd
EV +7.73%
Edge +1.72%
Kelly +2.20%
Growth +0.170%

assuming max odds 4.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.50%23.96%23.78%24.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.944.004.5127.78%25.39%25.00%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.48%3.78fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.544%
Kelly -0.745%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.48%26.42%26.64%28.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.463.503.7032.26%28.90%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Neom (Local): 49.63%; Al-Kholood (Visit): 23.89%; Draw: 26.48%. For Al-Kholood (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.19. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.51, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.98%EV -3.72%E -1.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.50%EV +7.73%E +1.72%K +2.20%G +0.170%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.52%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 18:50
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.22%EV -12.65%E -7.19%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV +0.330%E +0.078%K +0.103%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -5.98%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:54
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.22%EV -12.65%E -7.19%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV +0.330%E +0.078%K +0.103%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -5.98%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.22%EV -12.65%E -7.19%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV +0.330%E +0.078%K +0.103%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -5.98%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.22%EV -12.65%E -7.19%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV +0.330%E +0.078%K +0.103%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -5.98%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.22%EV -12.65%E -7.19%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV +0.330%E +0.078%K +0.103%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -5.98%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.22%EV -12.65%E -7.19%K -16.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV +0.330%E +0.078%K +0.103%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -5.98%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:54
LeoVegas🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.32%EV -13.65%E -7.84%K -18.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV +0.330%E +0.078%K +0.103%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.32%EV -13.65%E -7.84%K -18.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV +0.330%E +0.078%K +0.103%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.43%EV -15.63%E -9.19%K -22.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -2.06%E -0.502%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-28 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.43%EV -15.63%E -9.19%K -22.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -2.06%E -0.502%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.83%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-28 18:54
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.31%EV -4.22%E -2.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.50%EV -3.25%E -0.803%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 18:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.45%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.01%E -0.544%K -0.745%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 18:34
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -8.19%E -4.43%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -4.45%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -2.01%E -0.544%K -0.745%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 18:34
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -10.67%E -5.93%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -4.45%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-28 18:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -6.70%E -3.56%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -6.84%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -10.67%E -5.93%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -6.84%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -4.66%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 18:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.48%EV -10.67%E -5.93%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.42%EV -7.31%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.11%EV -7.84%E -2.25%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-28 18:48
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -10.67%E -5.93%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -9.23%E -2.43%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-28 18:34
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.67%E -5.93%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.42%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -9.96%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 18:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.83%EV -11.16%E -6.24%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -10.42%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.39%EV -10.49%E -3.10%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 18:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.43%EV -8.68%E -4.72%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -11.61%E -3.14%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -7.31%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 18:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.19%EV -9.68%E -5.32%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -14.00%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -8.63%E -2.50%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-28 18:50
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -9.18%E -5.02%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -14.00%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-28 18:34
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -9.18%E -5.02%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -14.00%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-28 18:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -9.18%E -5.02%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -14.00%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-28 18:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -9.18%E -5.02%K -11.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -14.00%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-28 18:34
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.59%EV -13.15%E -7.51%K -17.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.11%EV -14.00%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.30%EV -12.61%E -3.82%K -5.48%G +0.000%15.2%2026-02-28 18:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.05%EV -14.14%E -8.17%K -19.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%EV -14.00%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.37%EV -17.90%E -5.77%K -8.52%G +0.000%17.8%2026-02-28 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.40%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.21%1.8%2026-02-28 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.40%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.21%1.8%2026-02-28 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.22%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.32%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-02-28 18:54
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.99%2.6%2026-02-28 18:49