Language:English
Neom v Al-Fayha
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Neom (Local)
Prediction 53.61%1.87fair odd
EV +0.786%
Edge +0.418%
Kelly +0.893%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 1.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.43%53.42%53.67%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.761.731.8861.73%56.83%57.80%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Fayha (Visit)
Prediction 20.56%4.86fair odd
EV +2.82%
Edge +0.563%
Kelly +0.704%
Growth +0.020%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.40%20.60%20.50%23.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.224.105.0027.03%23.72%24.39%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.83%3.87fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.628%
Kelly -0.853%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.08%25.98%25.84%27.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.353.7832.26%29.66%29.85%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Neom (Local): 53.61%; Al-Fayha (Visit): 20.56%; Draw: 25.83%. For Al-Fayha (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.86. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.82%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%EV -4.04%E -2.26%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.41%EV +2.82%E +0.563%K +0.704%G +0.020% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.37%EV -4.95%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-04 16:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -8.86%E -5.21%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -2.33%E -0.490%K -0.620%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.60%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.80%EV -7.26%E -4.19%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 20.13%EV -3.15%E -0.668%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.08%EV -2.37%E -0.628%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 16:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.27%EV -11.54%E -7.00%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -3.35%E -0.714%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -7.02%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%EV -7.79%E -4.53%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.60%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.25%EV -8.86%E -5.21%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -12.19%E -3.58%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -3.50%E -1.95%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -9.52%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -9.60%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.14%EV -8.33%E -4.87%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.89%EV -10.55%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -9.60%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-04 16:27 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -3.50%E -1.95%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.37%EV -10.96%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -12.19%E -3.58%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.69%EV -8.33%E -4.87%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.20%EV -12.61%E -2.97%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -10.90%E -3.16%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-04 16:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -7.26%E -4.19%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -13.64%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.60%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -8.86%E -5.21%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -13.64%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.77%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-04 16:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -8.86%E -5.21%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -13.64%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.77%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-04 16:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.07%EV -13.15%E -8.12%K -21.21%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.47%EV -13.64%E -3.25%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.46%EV -16.06%E -4.94%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV +0.786%E +0.418%K +0.893%G +0.007% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -15.69%E -3.83%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -13.48%E -4.02%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV +0.786%E +0.418%K +0.893%G +0.007% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -15.69%E -3.83%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -13.48%E -4.02%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV +0.786%E +0.418%K +0.893%G +0.007% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -15.69%E -3.83%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -13.48%E -4.02%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.05%EV -1.36%E -0.738%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -15.69%E -3.83%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -13.48%E -4.02%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -1.89%E -1.04%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -15.69%E -3.83%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -13.48%E -4.02%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -2.97%E -1.64%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -15.69%E -3.83%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -14.77%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -0.823%E -0.445%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -17.75%E -4.44%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -14.77%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -0.823%E -0.445%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -17.75%E -4.44%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -14.77%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.90%EV -7.26%E -4.19%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -17.75%E -4.44%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -16.06%E -4.94%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.68%EV -7.26%E -4.19%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -17.75%E -4.44%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -17.35%E -5.42%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.68%EV -7.26%E -4.19%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -17.75%E -4.44%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -17.35%E -5.42%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.39%EV -10.47%E -6.27%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.87%EV -17.75%E -4.44%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -12.19%E -3.58%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-04-04 16:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.12%EV -10.47%E -6.27%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.34%EV -17.75%E -4.44%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.54%EV -19.93%E -6.43%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.56%EV -1.89%E -1.04%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -18.78%E -4.75%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -14.77%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.56%EV -1.89%E -1.04%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -18.78%E -4.75%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -14.77%E -4.48%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 49.51%EV -7.79%E -4.53%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.02%EV -23.92%E -6.46%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.47%EV -19.93%E -6.43%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.95% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.02% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.03% | 1.1% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.95% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.02% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.03% | 1.1% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.95% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.02% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.03% | 1.1% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 50.42% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 18.02% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 31.57% | 33.1% | 2026-04-04 16:30 |