Language:English
Neom v Al-Fayha
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Neom (Local)
Prediction 54.94%1.82fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -5.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%54.95%55.27%57.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.641.631.7564.94%60.80%61.16%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Fayha (Visit)
Prediction 20.01%5.00fair odd
EV +7.87%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.141%
assuming max odds 5.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.03%19.98%19.70%21.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.594.605.3923.81%21.79%21.74%18.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.05%3.99fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.463%
Kelly -0.621%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.51%25.07%25.03%26.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.613.603.9229.41%27.70%27.78%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Neom (Local): 54.94%; Al-Fayha (Visit): 20.01%; Draw: 25.05%. For Al-Fayha (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.00. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.39, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.87%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.17%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 5.39I 18.55%NM 18.03%EV +7.87%E +1.46%K +1.79%G +0.141% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.79%EV -1.81%E -0.463%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-14 16:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.79%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 5.09I 19.65%NM 18.63%EV +1.87%E +0.366%K +0.456%G +0.009% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.57%EV -3.32%E -0.859%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -3.94%E -0.821%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.38%EV -9.35%E -5.67%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -4.94%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.65%EV -9.35%E -5.67%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -5.94%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.32%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-14 16:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.42%EV -9.90%E -6.04%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.55%EV -6.94%E -1.49%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 25.04%EV -9.08%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 16:43 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32%EV -3.86%E -2.20%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-14 16:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.03%EV -9.35%E -5.67%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-14 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.53%EV -10.45%E -6.41%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.68%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -8.58%E -2.35%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.53%EV -10.45%E -6.41%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.68%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -8.58%E -2.35%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.53%EV -10.45%E -6.41%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.68%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -8.58%E -2.35%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.53%EV -10.45%E -6.41%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.68%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -8.58%E -2.35%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.53%EV -10.45%E -6.41%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.68%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -8.58%E -2.35%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.53%EV -10.45%E -6.41%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.68%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.80%EV -8.58%E -2.35%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -11.00%E -6.79%K -17.74%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.84%E -4.36%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-14 16:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.84%EV -11.55%E -7.17%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.19%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -14.84%E -4.36%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-14 16:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.84%EV -11.55%E -7.17%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.19%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -14.84%E -4.36%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-14 16:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.84%EV -11.55%E -7.17%K -18.93%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.19%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -14.84%E -4.36%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-14 16:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -4.95%E -2.86%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.07%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 16:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.95%E -2.86%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 16:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.64%EV -8.80%E -5.30%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.16%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -12.33%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-14 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -12.10%E -7.56%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.83%EV -13.74%E -8.75%K -24.11%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.69%EV -11.08%E -3.12%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.83%EV -13.74%E -8.75%K -24.11%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.69%EV -11.08%E -3.12%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 55.67%EV -15.39%E -10.00%K -28.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.48%EV -11.94%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 24.85%EV -13.59%E -3.94%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-08-14 15:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.21%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -13.94%E -3.24%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -7.32%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-14 16:13 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.87%EV -8.80%E -5.30%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -15.95%E -3.80%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.47%EV -11.00%E -6.79%K -17.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -15.95%E -3.80%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-14 15:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.93% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.68% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39% | 1.0% | 2026-08-14 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.93% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.68% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39% | 1.0% | 2026-08-14 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.93% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.68% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39% | 1.0% | 2026-08-14 16:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.49% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.79% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71% | 1.2% | 2026-08-14 16:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.83% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.79% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.38% | 2.3% | 2026-08-14 16:45 |