Language:English
Neom v Al-Ettifaq
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Neom (Local)
Prediction 45.21%2.21fair odd
EV -4.61%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.25%45.34%45.10%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.961.952.1155.25%51.07%51.28%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Ettifaq (Visit)
Prediction 30.32%3.30fair odd
EV +3.09%
Edge +0.910%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%30.20%30.37%31.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.133.103.4036.36%31.96%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.47%4.09fair odd
EV +2.04%
Edge +0.490%
Kelly +0.644%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 4.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.26%24.46%24.54%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.713.754.1730.77%26.97%26.67%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Neom (Local): 45.21%; Al-Ettifaq (Visit): 30.32%; Draw: 24.47%. For Al-Ettifaq (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.09%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -14.56%E -7.70%K -16.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV +3.09%E +0.910%K +1.29%G +0.040% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -15.01%E -7.98%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV +3.09%E +0.910%K +1.29%G +0.040% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -15.01%E -7.98%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV +3.09%E +0.910%K +1.29%G +0.040% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -15.01%E -7.98%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV +3.09%E +0.910%K +1.29%G +0.040% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -15.01%E -7.98%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV +3.09%E +0.910%K +1.29%G +0.040% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -15.01%E -7.98%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV +3.09%E +0.910%K +1.29%G +0.040% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -15.46%E -8.27%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV +3.09%E +0.910%K +1.29%G +0.040% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.46%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -15.46%E -8.27%K -17.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV +3.09%E +0.910%K +1.29%G +0.040% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -9.46%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.64%EV -17.27%E -9.44%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV +0.062%E +0.019%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.39%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.64%EV -17.27%E -9.44%K -20.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV +0.062%E +0.019%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.39%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.55%EV -18.17%E -10.04%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -1.45%E -0.448%K -0.646%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -5.06%E -2.41%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -2.97%E -0.928%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -11.84%E -6.07%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -2.97%E -0.928%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.01%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.32%EV -5.06%E -2.41%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.83%EV -3.27%E -1.03%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.85%EV -6.28%E -1.64%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.96%EV -4.61%E -2.19%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.79%EV -4.49%E -1.42%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.26%EV +2.04%E +0.490%K +0.644%G +0.013% | 3.1% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -5.06%E -2.41%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.00%E -1.94%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -11.84%E -6.07%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -6.00%E -1.94%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.01%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.24%EV -10.94%E -5.55%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 29.67%EV -6.91%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.10%EV -7.50%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-21 17:47 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -5.06%E -2.41%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.03%E -3.01%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -7.32%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -9.03%E -3.01%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.08%EV -11.84%E -6.07%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.03%E -3.01%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -8.24%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -11.84%E -6.07%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.03%E -3.01%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.93%EV -9.58%E -4.79%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -10.55%E -3.58%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.62%EV -10.68%E -2.93%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.32%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -12.07%E -4.16%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -7.01%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -9.58%E -4.79%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.07%E -4.16%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -9.58%E -4.79%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.07%E -4.16%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -9.58%E -4.79%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.07%E -4.16%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -9.58%E -4.79%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.07%E -4.16%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.43%EV -13.65%E -7.15%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.46%EV -12.67%E -4.40%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.11%EV -20.47%E -6.30%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.60%EV -9.58%E -4.79%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -13.58%E -4.77%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.11%EV -9.46%E -2.56%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.94%EV -13.65%E -7.15%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.21%EV -16.62%E -6.04%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.84%EV -11.91%E -3.31%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-05-21 17:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.05% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 0.5% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.62% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.65% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74% | 1.0% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.51% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 1.4% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.00% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 1.6% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.00% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 1.6% | 2026-05-21 17:50 |