The School of Odds
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Diriyah Club v Al-Qadsiah

Kickoff: 2026-09-03 18:00 UTC

Final: Diriyah Club 0–2 Al-Qadsiah

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Diriyah Club (Local)

Prediction 18.28%5.47fair odd
EV +9.70%
Edge +1.62%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.188%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.68%18.19%18.30%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.345.406.0021.28%18.74%18.52%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Qadsiah (Visit)

Prediction 61.69%1.62fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.806%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.67%61.95%61.57%65.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.431.441.6075.76%69.71%69.44%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.02%4.99fair odd
EV +4.12%
Edge +0.792%
Kelly +0.980%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.48%19.86%20.12%21.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.534.505.2023.81%22.07%22.22%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Diriyah Club (Local): 18.28%; Al-Qadsiah (Visit): 61.69%; Draw: 20.02%. For Diriyah Club (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.47. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV +9.70%E +1.62%K +1.94%G +0.188%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -14.86%E -10.77%K -39.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 17:50
Unibet (NL)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV +9.70%E +1.62%K +1.94%G +0.188%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -14.86%E -10.77%K -39.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 17:50
Grosvenor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV +9.70%E +1.62%K +1.94%G +0.188%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -14.86%E -10.77%K -39.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV +9.70%E +1.62%K +1.94%G +0.188%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -14.86%E -10.77%K -39.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV +9.70%E +1.62%K +1.94%G +0.188%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -14.86%E -10.77%K -39.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 17:50
LiveScore Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.68%EV +9.70%E +1.62%K +1.94%G +0.188%1.34I 74.63%NM 65.74%EV -17.33%E -12.93%K -50.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.58%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-03 17:59
Virgin Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.68%EV +9.70%E +1.62%K +1.94%G +0.188%1.34I 74.63%NM 65.74%EV -17.33%E -12.93%K -50.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.58%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-03 17:59
PMU (FR)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.01%EV +5.13%E +0.893%K +1.08%G +0.055%1.32I 75.76%NM 65.38%EV -18.56%E -14.06%K -58.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.61%EV -11.90%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-03 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV +0.561%E +0.102%K +0.125%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -7.46%E -4.97%K -14.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -3.89%E -0.811%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 17:50
Coral🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV +0.561%E +0.102%K +0.125%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -7.46%E -4.97%K -14.92%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -3.89%E -0.811%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV +0.561%E +0.102%K +0.125%G +0.001%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -10.54%E -7.27%K -23.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 17:55
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV +0.561%E +0.102%K +0.125%G +0.001%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.40%EV +0.561%E +0.102%K +0.125%G +0.001%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.09%EV -11.78%E -8.24%K -27.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.50%EV -11.90%E -2.70%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 17:59
1xBet🎯5.41I 18.48%NM 17.94%EV -1.08%E -0.200%K -0.246%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.67%EV -1.29%E -0.806%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.38%EV -9.10%E -2.00%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-03 17:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.43%EV -1.27%E -0.235%K -0.288%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 62.93%EV -13.01%E -9.23%K -31.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.64%EV -13.90%E -3.23%K -4.21%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 17:59
Pinnacle🎯5.32I 18.80%NM 17.83%EV -2.73%E -0.513%K -0.632%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -6.84%E -4.53%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.36%EV -1.89%E -0.386%K -0.485%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 17:55
SportsBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.37%EV -3.10%E -0.584%K -0.720%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.62%EV -9.31%E -6.33%K -19.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -7.90%E -1.72%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 17:49
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -8.58%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.91%EV -6.23%E -4.10%K -11.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 17:59
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -8.58%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -8.58%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -9.90%E -2.20%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 18.79%EV -11.32%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.74%EV -7.46%E -4.97%K -14.92%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.47%EV -10.90%E -2.45%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 17:59
Winamax (DE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -12.24%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.58%EV -11.78%E -8.24%K -27.39%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV +4.12%E +0.792%K +0.980%G +0.040%10.0%2026-09-03 17:55
Sky Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.38%EV -12.24%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.25%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.37%EV -13.30%E -3.07%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-03 17:50
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -12.24%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -15.91%E -3.79%K -4.97%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-03 17:59
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -12.24%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -15.91%E -3.79%K -4.97%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-03 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -12.24%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -15.91%E -3.79%K -4.97%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-03 17:59
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -12.24%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -15.91%E -3.79%K -4.97%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-03 17:59
Winamax (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.05%EV -14.07%E -2.99%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.05%EV -12.39%E -8.73%K -29.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV +0.112%E +0.022%K +0.028%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.67%EV -14.07%E -2.99%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 60.93%EV -11.16%E -7.75%K -25.37%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.40%EV -13.90%E -3.23%K -4.21%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-03 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.96%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%0.5%2026-09-03 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.08%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.10%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-09-03 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.08%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.10%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-09-03 17:55
Kalshi◎5.88I 17.01%NM 16.85%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.32%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83%1.0%2026-09-03 17:50
Smarkets◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.01%1.57I 63.69%NM 62.85%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%1.3%2026-09-03 17:55