The School of Odds
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Al-Taawoun v Al-Hilal

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 15:52 UTC

Final: Al-Taawoun 0–6 Al-Hilal

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Taawoun (Local)

Prediction 11.44%8.74fair odd
EV +11.85%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.160%

assuming max odds 9.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.68%11.34%11.28%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.468.819.7814.29%11.82%11.35%10.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Hilal (Visit)

Prediction 71.47%1.40fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -3.72%
Kelly -14.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.00%71.60%71.59%73.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.251.251.3385.47%80.04%80.32%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.09%5.85fair odd
EV +0.842%
Edge +0.143%
Kelly +0.172%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.23%17.06%17.14%17.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.355.405.9020.00%18.68%18.52%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Taawoun (Local): 11.44%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 71.47%; Draw: 17.09%. For Al-Taawoun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.74. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯9.78I 10.22%NM 9.82%EV +11.85%E +1.21%K +1.35%G +0.160%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.90%EV -7.09%E -5.45%K -23.62%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.28%EV +0.842%E +0.143%K +0.172%G +0.001%4.1%2026-09-12 15:45
Tipico (DE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV +8.65%E +0.911%K +1.02%G +0.088%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -6.00%E -1.09%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 15:15
SportsBet🎯9.25I 10.81%NM 9.89%EV +5.79%E +0.626%K +0.702%G +0.041%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.77%EV -11.38%E -9.17%K -47.40%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.34%EV -4.29%E -0.765%K -0.932%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 15:35
betfred_uk🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.00%E -1.09%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 14:21
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -11.38%E -9.17%K -47.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -7.70%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 15:15
Grosvenor🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -11.38%E -9.17%K -47.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -7.70%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -11.38%E -9.17%K -47.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -7.70%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -11.38%E -9.17%K -47.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -7.70%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -11.38%E -9.17%K -47.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -7.70%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -11.38%E -9.17%K -47.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -7.70%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 15:16
Paddy Power🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -12.81%E -10.50%K -58.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -6.00%E -1.09%K -1.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-12 15:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -12.81%E -10.50%K -58.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -6.00%E -1.09%K -1.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-12 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.96%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.45%EV -12.81%E -10.50%K -58.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -7.70%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.96%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.45%EV -12.81%E -10.50%K -58.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -7.70%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV +2.93%E +0.326%K +0.367%G +0.011%1.21I 82.64%NM 73.38%EV -13.52%E -11.17%K -64.38%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.75%EV -9.41%E -1.78%K -2.19%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-12 15:15
Pinnacle🎯8.62I 11.60%NM 10.98%EV -1.41%E -0.164%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.79%EV -7.09%E -5.45%K -23.62%G +0.000%5.83I 17.15%NM 16.23%EV -0.355%E -0.061%K -0.073%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 15:45
Coral🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV -2.79%E -0.328%K -0.371%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -4.94%E -3.72%K -14.98%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.00%E -1.09%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 15:31
Unibet (UK)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -2.79%E -0.328%K -0.371%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.56%EV -7.80%E -6.05%K -26.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -10.27%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.07%EV -2.79%E -0.328%K -0.371%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 73.15%EV -16.38%E -14.00%K -96.35%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.78%EV -12.83%E -2.52%K -3.13%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-12 15:16
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -8.50%E -1.06%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -4.94%E -3.72%K -14.98%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.00%E -1.09%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 15:25
Sky Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -8.50%E -1.06%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.72%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.64%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -10.27%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 15:35
Betclic (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.27%EV -11.36%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 71.60%EV -12.81%E -10.50%K -58.21%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.13%EV -12.83%E -2.52%K -3.13%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-12 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 11.54%EV -13.08%E -1.72%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 71.27%EV -12.09%E -9.83%K -52.57%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.19%EV -12.83%E -2.52%K -3.13%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-12 15:45
Winamax (DE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -14.22%E -1.90%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.47%EV -8.52%E -6.65%K -30.42%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.34%EV -4.29%E -0.765%K -0.932%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 15:45
William Hill🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -14.22%E -1.90%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -14.54%E -2.91%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-12 15:29
888sport🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -14.22%E -1.90%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -14.54%E -2.91%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-12 15:30
888sport (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -14.22%E -1.90%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -14.54%E -2.91%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-12 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -14.22%E -1.90%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -14.54%E -2.91%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-12 15:30
Winamax (FR)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.35%EV -17.08%E -2.36%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.07%EV -9.95%E -7.89%K -38.25%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -7.70%E -1.43%K -1.75%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 15:45
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -19.94%E -2.85%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -14.54%E -2.91%K -3.64%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-12 15:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 9.00%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.02%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.97%1.0%2026-09-12 15:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 9.00%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.02%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.97%1.0%2026-09-12 15:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 9.00%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.02%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.97%1.0%2026-09-12 15:36
Smarkets◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.39%1.32I 75.76%NM 74.70%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.90%1.4%2026-09-12 15:35
Kalshi◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.72%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.74%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.55%2.9%2026-09-12 15:45