The School of Odds
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Al-Taawoun v Al-Fateh

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Taawoun (Local)

Prediction 50.52%1.98fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -3.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.98%50.53%50.53%52.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.831.851.9157.80%54.64%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fateh (Visit)

Prediction 23.50%4.25fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.356%
Kelly +0.464%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.57%23.41%23.51%25.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.773.704.3228.99%26.51%27.03%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.97%3.85fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.31%26.06%25.96%27.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.473.503.7032.26%28.83%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Taawoun (Local): 50.52%; Al-Fateh (Visit): 23.50%; Draw: 25.97%. For Al-Fateh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.12%EV -4.01%E -2.11%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.48%EV +1.54%E +0.356%K +0.464%G +0.007%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.39%EV -4.42%E -1.20%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-06 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -10.57%E -5.97%K -13.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -1.28%E -0.305%K -0.401%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-06 18:20
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -11.58%E -6.62%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -1.28%E -0.305%K -0.401%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-06 18:21
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -11.58%E -6.62%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -1.28%E -0.305%K -0.401%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-06 18:20
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.28%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.08%EV -3.40%E -0.827%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.98%E -1.50%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 18:45
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.98%E -1.50%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 18:45
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.82%EV -11.58%E -6.62%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -5.98%E -1.50%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.95%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-06 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -8.33%E -2.14%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-06 18:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -10.07%E -5.66%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.33%E -2.14%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-06 18:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.47%EV -10.57%E -5.97%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.63%EV -11.15%E -2.95%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.89%EV -10.40%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-06 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.52%EV -12.59%E -7.28%K -17.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.85%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -19.49%E -6.29%K -9.28%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-06 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.06%EV -8.05%E -4.42%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -13.03%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-06 18:15
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.21%EV -9.06%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -13.03%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-06 18:15
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.21%EV -9.06%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -13.03%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-06 18:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.21%EV -9.06%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -13.03%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-06 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.21%EV -9.06%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -13.03%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-06 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.81%EV -9.06%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -14.21%E -3.89%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-06 18:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.98%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -15.38%E -4.27%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -10.40%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-06 18:15
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.88%EV -12.59%E -7.28%K -17.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -15.38%E -4.27%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-06 18:10
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.17%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -16.56%E -4.66%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-06 18:56
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.17%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -16.56%E -4.66%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-06 18:55
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.17%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -16.56%E -4.66%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-06 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.17%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -16.56%E -4.66%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-06 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.17%EV -3.50%E -1.83%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -16.56%E -4.66%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-06 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.02%EV -5.02%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.43%EV -16.56%E -4.66%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-06 18:15
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -5.02%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -17.73%E -5.07%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-06 18:56
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.07%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.78%EV -18.91%E -5.48%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.16%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-06 18:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.07%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.78%EV -18.91%E -5.48%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.16%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-06 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.78%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.11%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-03-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.78%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.11%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-03-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.78%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.11%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-03-06 18:55
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.49%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.34%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%1.9%2026-03-06 18:50