The School of Odds
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Al-Shabab v Al-Taawoun

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 16:00 UTC

Final: Al-Shabab 1–5 Al-Taawoun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Shabab (Local)

Prediction 41.96%2.38fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.772%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.02%41.93%41.97%42.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3448.78%45.35%45.45%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Taawoun (Visit)

Prediction 32.22%3.10fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.460%
Kelly -0.684%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.34%32.19%32.29%33.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.802.803.0638.17%35.75%35.71%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.82%3.87fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.28%25.89%25.73%28.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.423.403.7233.33%29.28%29.41%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Shabab (Local): 41.96%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 32.22%; Draw: 25.82%. For Al-Taawoun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.06, with an expected value of -1.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.47%EV -1.81%E -0.772%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.72%EV -1.41%E -0.460%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.81%EV -6.54%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 15:50
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -4.32%E -1.90%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 15:35
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -4.32%E -1.90%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 15:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -4.32%E -1.90%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 15:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -4.32%E -1.90%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 15:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -4.32%E -1.90%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 15:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -4.32%E -1.90%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 15:35
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.58%E -2.48%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -3.34%E -1.11%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.06%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 15:06
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.58%E -2.48%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -3.34%E -1.11%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 15:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -5.58%E -2.48%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -8.17%E -2.87%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 15:15
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -5.58%E -2.48%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -5.58%E -2.48%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 15:35
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -5.58%E -2.48%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -13.51%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 15:35
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -6.84%E -3.08%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -2.37%E -0.784%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.62%EV -3.96%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 15:46
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -7.68%E -3.49%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.68%E -3.49%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -11.40%E -4.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -8.35%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 15:15
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -7.68%E -3.49%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -11.40%E -4.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -7.68%E -3.49%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.01%E -4.82%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -14.80%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-03 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -7.68%E -3.49%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.01%E -4.82%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -14.80%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-03 15:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.35%EV -8.52%E -3.91%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.58%EV -13.01%E -4.82%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.07%EV -16.09%E -4.95%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-03 15:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -9.78%E -4.55%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.56%E -2.26%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -7.06%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 15:46
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -9.78%E -4.55%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -13.01%E -4.82%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -9.64%E -2.75%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 15:15
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.78%E -4.55%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -14.80%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-03 15:46
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.78%E -4.55%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -14.80%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-03 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.78%E -4.55%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -14.80%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-03 15:46
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.78%E -4.55%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.79%E -3.49%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -14.80%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.18%EV -9.78%E -4.55%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -13.01%E -4.82%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-03 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.95%EV -10.62%E -4.98%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.73%EV -12.04%E -4.41%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.31%EV -8.87%E -2.51%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 15:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.42%EV -11.88%E -5.66%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.22%EV -13.01%E -4.82%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -14.80%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-03 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.02%EV -11.88%E -5.66%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 31.96%EV -15.26%E -5.80%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.02%EV -22.55%E -7.52%K -11.27%G +0.000%19.0%2026-05-03 15:15
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.92%EV -13.97%E -6.82%K -13.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.80%EV -15.58%E -5.95%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.28%EV -12.22%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%16.4%2026-05-03 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.60%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.5%2026-05-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.60%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.5%2026-05-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-05-03 15:50
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49%1.9%2026-05-03 15:46
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.25%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.62%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14%2.0%2026-05-03 15:55