The School of Odds
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Al-Shabab v Al-Hilal

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Shabab (Local)

Prediction 19.32%5.18fair odd
EV +15.93%
Edge +2.66%
Kelly +3.19%
Growth +0.508%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.38%19.24%19.29%20.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.165.006.0023.09%19.40%20.00%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Hilal (Visit)

Prediction 59.78%1.67fair odd
EV -4.35%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -7.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.70%59.87%59.74%64.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.481.501.6072.99%67.67%66.67%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.90%4.79fair odd
EV +4.70%
Edge +0.938%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.055%

assuming max odds 5.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.33%20.88%20.97%22.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.474.505.0125.00%22.37%22.22%19.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Shabab (Local): 19.32%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 59.78%; Draw: 20.90%. For Al-Shabab (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.18. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV +15.93%E +2.66%K +3.19%G +0.508%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.99%EV -15.11%E -10.64%K -35.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -1.78%E -0.378%K -0.480%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV +15.93%E +2.66%K +3.19%G +0.508%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.99%EV -15.11%E -10.64%K -35.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -1.78%E -0.378%K -0.480%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV +15.93%E +2.66%K +3.19%G +0.508%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.99%EV -15.11%E -10.64%K -35.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -1.78%E -0.378%K -0.480%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Grosvenor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV +15.93%E +2.66%K +3.19%G +0.508%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.99%EV -15.11%E -10.64%K -35.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -1.78%E -0.378%K -0.480%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
ATG (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV +15.93%E +2.66%K +3.19%G +0.508%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.99%EV -15.11%E -10.64%K -35.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -1.78%E -0.378%K -0.480%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Svenska Spel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV +15.93%E +2.66%K +3.19%G +0.508%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.99%EV -15.11%E -10.64%K -35.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -1.78%E -0.378%K -0.480%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 18:39
LeoVegas🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV +12.07%E +2.08%K +2.51%G +0.303%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -16.31%E -11.65%K -40.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -3.87%E -0.841%K -1.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-27 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV +12.07%E +2.08%K +2.51%G +0.303%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -16.31%E -11.65%K -40.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -3.87%E -0.841%K -1.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-27 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV +11.10%E +1.93%K +2.34%G +0.259%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.82%EV -18.10%E -13.21%K -48.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.73%EV -5.96%E -1.32%K -1.70%G +0.000%12.6%2026-02-27 18:39
LiveScore Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV +11.10%E +1.93%K +2.34%G +0.259%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.82%EV -18.10%E -13.21%K -48.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.73%EV -5.96%E -1.32%K -1.70%G +0.000%12.6%2026-02-27 18:39
Tipico (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV +0.473%E +0.091%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.37%EV -10.33%E -6.89%K -20.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -8.05%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 18:54
Pinnacle🎯5.06I 19.76%NM 18.72%EV -2.23%E -0.441%K -0.550%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.33%EV -6.15%E -3.91%K -10.78%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 20.95%EV -5.54%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 18:49
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -3.39%E -0.678%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -7.34%E -4.74%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -3.87%E -0.841%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -3.39%E -0.678%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -7.34%E -4.74%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.96%E -1.32%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-27 18:39
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -3.39%E -0.678%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -10.33%E -6.89%K -20.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -5.96%E -1.32%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-27 18:54
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -3.39%E -0.678%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -10.33%E -6.89%K -20.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -8.05%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-27 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.51%EV -5.32%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.87%EV -10.93%E -7.33%K -22.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.05%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 18:54
1xBet🎯4.81I 20.79%NM 20.14%EV -7.06%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.53%EV -4.35%E -2.72%K -7.25%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 19.33%EV +4.70%E +0.938%K +1.17%G +0.055%3.3%2026-02-27 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.28%EV -7.26%E -1.51%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.69%EV -7.34%E -4.74%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -8.05%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-27 18:54
Sky Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -8.22%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -10.33%E -6.89%K -20.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -12.23%E -2.91%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-27 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -9.19%E -1.95%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 59.97%EV -10.93%E -7.33%K -22.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.02%EV -11.18%E -2.63%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-27 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -11.12%E -2.42%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.94%EV -9.13%E -6.01%K -17.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -5.96%E -1.32%K -1.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-27 18:55
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -11.12%E -2.42%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.79%EV -10.33%E -6.89%K -20.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -16.41%E -4.10%K -5.47%G +0.000%13.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Winamax (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -13.05%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.45%EV -10.33%E -6.89%K -20.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -10.14%E -2.36%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-27 18:54
888sport🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.34%EV -16.34%E -3.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.70%EV -10.33%E -6.89%K -20.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -12.23%E -2.91%K -3.82%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-27 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.34%EV -16.34%E -3.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.70%EV -10.33%E -6.89%K -20.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -12.23%E -2.91%K -3.82%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-27 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.34%EV -16.34%E -3.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.70%EV -10.33%E -6.89%K -20.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -12.23%E -2.91%K -3.82%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-27 18:54
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.34%EV -16.34%E -3.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.70%EV -10.33%E -6.89%K -20.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -12.23%E -2.91%K -3.82%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-27 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-02-27 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-02-27 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.42%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.85%0.8%2026-02-27 18:54
Smarkets◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.58%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.32%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.10%1.6%2026-02-27 18:54