Language:English
Al-Shabab v Al-Hilal
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Shabab (Local)
Prediction 11.62%8.61fair odd
EV +4.57%
Edge +0.507%
Kelly +0.571%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.23%11.59%11.55%12.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.737.509.0014.29%12.94%13.33%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Hilal (Visit)
Prediction 72.57%1.38fair odd
EV -5.65%
Edge -4.35%
Kelly -18.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.33%72.40%72.78%74.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.261.261.3082.64%79.26%79.37%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.81%6.33fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.193%
Kelly -0.229%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.08%16.01%15.67%17.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.545.506.2520.00%18.06%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Shabab (Local): 11.62%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 72.57%; Draw: 15.81%. For Al-Shabab (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.61. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV +4.57%E +0.507%K +0.571%G +0.026% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.28%E -7.43%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -5.16%E -0.859%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV +4.57%E +0.507%K +0.571%G +0.026% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -9.28%E -7.43%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -9.90%E -1.74%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-04 12:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV +2.24%E +0.255%K +0.287%G +0.006% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.99%EV -8.56%E -6.79%K -32.91%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.41%EV -4.37%E -0.722%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 14:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -1.24%E -0.146%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -9.28%E -7.43%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -5.16%E -0.859%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -1.24%E -0.146%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -10.01%E -8.07%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -5.16%E -0.859%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -1.24%E -0.146%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -9.28%E -7.43%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -13.06%E -2.37%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -1.24%E -0.146%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -11.46%E -9.39%K -52.09%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -5.16%E -0.859%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-04 14:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.37I 11.95%NM 11.26%EV -2.75%E -0.329%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.65%EV -7.10%E -5.55%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -1.20%E -0.193%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -7.05%E -0.882%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -5.65%E -4.35%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -5.16%E -0.859%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -7.05%E -0.882%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.78%EV -7.83%E -6.17%K -29.00%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV -6.74%E -1.14%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -5.65%E -4.35%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -5.16%E -0.859%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.57%EV -8.56%E -6.79%K -32.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -5.16%E -0.859%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.81%EV -7.10%E -5.55%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.10%EV -16.22%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.81%EV -7.10%E -5.55%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.10%EV -16.22%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.81%EV -7.10%E -5.55%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.10%EV -16.22%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.81%EV -7.10%E -5.55%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.10%EV -16.22%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.81%EV -7.10%E -5.55%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.10%EV -16.22%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.81%EV -7.10%E -5.55%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.10%EV -16.22%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 12:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.28%E -7.43%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -17.01%E -3.24%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-04 09:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.78%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.24%EV -10.01%E -8.07%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.99%EV -17.80%E -3.42%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-04 09:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.78%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.24%EV -10.01%E -8.07%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.99%EV -17.80%E -3.42%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-04 09:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -12.86%E -1.71%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.23%EV -11.46%E -9.39%K -52.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.02%EV -13.06%E -2.37%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-04 14:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 7.40I 13.51%NM 11.96%EV -14.02%E -1.90%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.95%EV -10.73%E -8.73%K -46.67%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.09%EV -13.06%E -2.37%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.32%EV -15.77%E -2.17%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.02%EV -10.01%E -8.07%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.67%EV -9.90%E -1.74%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -18.67%E -2.67%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -6.38%E -4.95%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -20.96%E -4.19%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -18.67%E -2.67%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -6.38%E -4.95%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -20.96%E -4.19%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -18.67%E -2.67%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -6.38%E -4.95%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -20.96%E -4.19%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -18.67%E -2.67%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -6.38%E -4.95%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -20.96%E -4.19%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-04 13:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -18.67%E -2.67%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.13%EV -9.28%E -7.43%K -37.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.17%EV -13.06%E -2.37%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 14:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.26%EV -18.67%E -2.67%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 70.92%EV -12.19%E -10.07%K -58.02%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.83%EV -19.38%E -3.80%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-09-04 09:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.09% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.92% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.09% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.92% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.09% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.92% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.09% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.92% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.48% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |