Language:English
Al-Riyadh v Neom
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Riyadh (Local)
Prediction 23.93%4.18fair odd
EV -0.930%
Edge -0.225%
Kelly -0.296%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.45%23.79%23.95%26.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.643.604.1431.25%27.51%27.78%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Neom (Visit)
Prediction 49.69%2.01fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -4.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.24%49.84%49.66%51.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.851.831.9257.80%54.16%54.50%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.38%3.79fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.505%
Kelly -0.690%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.72
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.68%26.37%26.39%27.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.503.7230.77%28.82%28.57%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Riyadh (Local): 23.93%; Neom (Visit): 49.69%; Draw: 26.38%. For Al-Riyadh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.14, with an expected value of -0.930%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.42%EV -0.930%E -0.225%K -0.296%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.51%EV -4.59%E -2.39%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 26.07%EV -1.88%E -0.505%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -1.89%E -0.460%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -12.04%E -6.80%K -15.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 15:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.19%EV -2.13%E -0.520%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.18%EV -6.08%E -3.22%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.64%EV -6.10%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 15:26 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -6.67%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -2.40%E -0.650%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-28 15:36 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -6.67%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -8.07%E -4.36%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -2.40%E -0.650%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-28 15:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -6.67%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.06%EV -8.57%E -4.65%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 23.76%EV -8.35%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.72%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 26.53%EV -9.53%E -2.78%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-28 15:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -9.07%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-28 15:36 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -9.07%E -2.39%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-28 15:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -10.26%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.06%EV -6.58%E -3.50%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-28 15:26 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -10.26%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -5.04%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-28 10:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -10.26%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.05%EV -9.56%E -5.25%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -6.36%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.26%E -2.74%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.32%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-28 15:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.22%EV -11.46%E -3.10%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.80%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.98%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -13.85%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.28%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.27%E -4.39%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-28 15:36 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -13.85%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.28%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.27%E -4.39%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-28 15:41 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -13.85%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.28%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.27%E -4.39%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-28 15:36 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -13.85%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.28%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -14.27%E -4.39%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-28 15:36 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -13.85%E -3.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 49.84%EV -12.54%E -7.13%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -10.32%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-28 15:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -18.64%E -5.48%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -18.64%E -5.48%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -18.64%E -5.48%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -18.64%E -5.48%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -18.64%E -5.48%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -18.64%E -5.48%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -18.64%E -5.48%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.92%EV -14.03%E -8.11%K -19.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.68%EV -7.68%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -21.03%E -6.37%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.24%EV -7.07%E -3.78%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -10.32%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -21.03%E -6.37%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -8.07%E -4.36%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -10.32%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -21.03%E -6.37%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -8.07%E -4.36%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -10.32%E -3.03%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.75%EV -23.42%E -7.32%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 47.30%EV -10.06%E -5.56%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.94%EV -12.96%E -3.93%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-08-28 15:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.57% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95% | 1.4% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.57% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95% | 1.4% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.57% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95% | 1.4% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.83% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08% | 5.1% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.49% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.10% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.41% | 6.1% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |