Language:English
Al-Riyadh v Al-Shabab
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Riyadh (Local)
Prediction 25.56%3.91fair odd
EV +5.82%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.85%
Growth +0.108%
assuming max odds 4.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.13%25.45%25.61%26.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.693.704.1430.30%27.08%27.03%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Shabab (Visit)
Prediction 49.27%2.03fair odd
EV -5.41%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -5.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.73%49.30%49.30%51.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.821.821.9258.82%55.05%54.95%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.17%3.97fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.469%
Kelly -0.631%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.41%25.25%25.10%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.603.653.9032.26%27.81%27.40%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Riyadh (Local): 25.56%; Al-Shabab (Visit): 49.27%; Draw: 25.17%. For Al-Riyadh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.82%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.42%EV +5.82%E +1.41%K +1.85%G +0.108% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.51%EV -5.41%E -2.82%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 26.07%EV -6.36%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV +0.967%E +0.245%K +0.328%G +0.003% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -12.30%E -6.91%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -8.12%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-05 17:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV +0.967%E +0.245%K +0.328%G +0.003% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -12.30%E -6.91%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -8.12%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-05 17:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV +0.967%E +0.245%K +0.328%G +0.003% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -12.30%E -6.91%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -8.12%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV +0.967%E +0.245%K +0.328%G +0.003% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -12.30%E -6.91%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -8.12%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV +0.967%E +0.245%K +0.328%G +0.003% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -12.30%E -6.91%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -8.12%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -0.311%E -0.080%K -0.107%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.78%EV -12.30%E -6.91%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -5.61%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 17:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -0.311%E -0.080%K -0.107%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.72%EV -13.29%E -7.55%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -8.12%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -0.311%E -0.080%K -0.107%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.72%EV -13.29%E -7.55%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -8.12%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.13%EV -1.59%E -0.413%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.78%EV -15.26%E -8.87%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.09%EV -10.64%E -3.00%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.13%EV -1.59%E -0.413%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.78%EV -15.26%E -8.87%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.09%EV -10.64%E -3.00%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -2.87%E -0.755%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -11.32%E -6.29%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -6.86%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-05 17:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -2.87%E -0.755%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.73%EV -16.25%E -9.56%K -23.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -11.90%E -3.40%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -4.15%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.54%EV -5.41%E -2.82%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%EV -4.60%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-05 17:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -5.42%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -5.90%E -3.09%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -1.83%E -0.469%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -5.42%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.86%E -4.79%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.86%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-05 17:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 25.07%EV -7.21%E -1.99%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.00%EV -10.33%E -5.68%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -8.12%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-05 17:38 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.90%E -3.09%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.35%E -1.14%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -6.39%E -3.36%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.38%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-05 17:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -9.84%E -5.38%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -9.38%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.40%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -10.33%E -5.68%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -9.38%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-05 17:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -9.84%E -5.38%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -11.90%E -3.40%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-05 17:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -11.32%E -6.29%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -21.97%E -7.09%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-04-05 17:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -11.81%E -3.42%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.98%EV -8.36%E -4.50%K -9.72%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -6.86%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-05 17:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.73%EV -9.35%E -5.08%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -9.38%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-05 17:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.86%E -4.79%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.42%E -4.24%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-05 17:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.86%E -4.79%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.42%E -4.24%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-05 17:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.86%E -4.79%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.42%E -4.24%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-05 17:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.86%E -4.79%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.42%E -4.24%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-05 17:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.93%EV -15.65%E -4.74%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 48.90%EV -13.78%E -7.88%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.17%EV -14.42%E -4.24%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-04-05 17:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-04-05 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.22% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05% | 1.1% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.22% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05% | 1.1% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.59% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.19% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.22% | 1.7% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26% | 3.1% | 2026-04-05 17:55 |