Language:English
Al-Riyadh v Al-Ahli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Riyadh (Local)
Prediction 12.58%7.95fair odd
EV +0.615%
Edge +0.077%
Kelly +0.088%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.20%12.77%12.61%14.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.347.508.0016.67%13.62%13.33%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Ahli (Visit)
Prediction 67.57%1.48fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -6.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.50%67.37%67.51%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.341.331.4477.52%74.76%75.19%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.86%5.04fair odd
EV -0.709%
Edge -0.142%
Kelly -0.177%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.26%19.85%19.88%21.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.564.605.0025.00%21.92%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Riyadh (Local): 12.58%; Al-Ahli (Visit): 67.57%; Draw: 19.86%. For Al-Riyadh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.95. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.615%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV +0.615%E +0.077%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -10.14%E -7.62%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -5.67%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV +0.615%E +0.077%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -10.14%E -7.62%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -5.67%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV +0.615%E +0.077%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -10.14%E -7.62%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -5.67%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV +0.615%E +0.077%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -10.14%E -7.62%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -5.67%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV +0.615%E +0.077%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -10.14%E -7.62%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -5.67%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV +0.615%E +0.077%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -10.81%E -8.19%K -33.79%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -4.68%E -0.975%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV +0.615%E +0.077%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -10.81%E -8.19%K -33.79%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV +0.615%E +0.077%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -10.81%E -8.19%K -33.79%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV +0.615%E +0.077%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.41%EV -10.14%E -7.62%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -10.64%E -2.36%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV +0.615%E +0.077%K +0.088%G +0.001% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -12.17%E -9.36%K -40.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.64%E -2.36%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.80%EV -1.90%E -0.244%K -0.280%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.19%EV -8.79%E -6.51%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -8.65%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -5.67%E -0.757%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.55%EV -7.44%E -5.43%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -8.65%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%EV -5.67%E -0.757%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -10.14%E -7.62%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.69%EV -14.01%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-02-26 18:56 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -5.67%E -0.757%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.85%EV -12.84%E -9.95%K -44.28%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -8.65%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -5.67%E -0.757%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.85%EV -12.84%E -9.95%K -44.28%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -8.65%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.57%EV -5.67%E -0.757%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 66.74%EV -12.17%E -9.36%K -40.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.69%EV -20.57%E -5.14%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.95%EV -8.19%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.00%EV -6.08%E -4.38%K -15.60%G +0.000% | 4.96I 20.16%NM 19.06%EV -1.50%E -0.303%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.59%EV -8.82%E -1.22%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.15%EV -10.81%E -8.19%K -33.79%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -0.709%E -0.142%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.28%EV -8.82%E -1.22%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.47%EV -10.81%E -8.19%K -33.79%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -12.62%E -2.87%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.28%EV -8.82%E -1.22%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 67.94%EV -11.49%E -8.77%K -37.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.78%EV -10.64%E -2.36%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-02-26 18:53 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -11.96%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.84%EV -2.71%E -1.88%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -8.65%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -11.96%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -5.41%E -3.86%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -8.65%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -11.96%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -12.17%E -9.36%K -40.55%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.59%EV -4.68%E -0.975%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -11.96%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.79%EV -10.14%E -7.62%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -14.01%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.58I 15.20%NM 13.82%EV -17.24%E -2.62%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.40%EV -7.44%E -5.43%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -8.65%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -24.54%E -4.09%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.50%EV -8.11%E -5.96%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.88%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -24.54%E -4.09%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.50%EV -8.11%E -5.96%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.88%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -24.54%E -4.09%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.50%EV -8.11%E -5.96%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.88%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -24.54%E -4.09%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.50%EV -8.11%E -5.96%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.88%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.28% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.99% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.28% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.99% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.28% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.99% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.23% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.64% | 1.8% | 2026-02-26 18:55 |