The School of Odds
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Al-Okhdood v Al-Fateh

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 15:57 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Okhdood (Local)

Prediction 23.42%4.27fair odd
EV +2.34%
Edge +0.536%
Kelly +0.695%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 4.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.19%23.51%23.42%24.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.923.984.3728.57%25.52%25.13%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fateh (Visit)

Prediction 53.14%1.88fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -4.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.04%53.10%53.03%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.731.8159.88%58.17%57.80%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.44%4.27fair odd
EV +0.799%
Edge +0.186%
Kelly +0.242%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.11%23.39%23.55%26.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.813.804.3030.77%26.24%26.32%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Okhdood (Local): 23.42%; Al-Fateh (Visit): 53.14%; Draw: 23.44%. For Al-Okhdood (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.37, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.37I 22.88%NM 22.19%EV +2.34%E +0.536%K +0.695%G +0.016%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.57%EV -3.82%E -2.11%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -6.23%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-05 15:54
Unibet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -3.98%E -0.971%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 15:55
Unibet (NL)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -3.98%E -0.971%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 15:55
Grosvenor🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -3.98%E -0.971%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 15:55
Unibet (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -3.98%E -0.971%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -3.98%E -0.971%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -3.98%E -0.971%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.27%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 15:55
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -3.98%E -0.971%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -9.66%E -5.68%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 15:55
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.35%E -2.42%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.23%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.01%E -4.00%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.23%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 15:55
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -7.01%E -4.00%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 15:55
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.66%E -5.68%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -6.23%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-05 15:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.09%EV -9.13%E -5.34%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -12.09%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 15:55
LeoVegas🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -6.32%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.09%EV -9.13%E -5.34%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -12.09%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 15:55
Pinnacle🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.88%EV -6.79%E -1.71%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.01%EV -6.48%E -3.68%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV +0.799%E +0.186%K +0.242%G +0.002%5.2%2026-04-05 15:54
Virgin Bet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%EV -7.49%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.18%EV -11.26%E -6.74%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.33%EV -14.44%E -3.96%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-05 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%EV -7.49%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.18%EV -11.26%E -6.74%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.33%EV -14.44%E -3.96%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-05 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.66%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.97%EV -8.60%E -5.00%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.67%EV -9.75%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -9.84%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -9.66%E -5.68%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -7.41%E -1.87%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 15:53
Unibet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -9.84%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.48%EV -8.60%E -5.00%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -12.09%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 15:53
Winamax (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%EV -9.84%E -2.55%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.94%EV -9.66%E -5.68%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-05 15:55
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -11.01%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.22%EV -11.26%E -6.74%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -10.92%E -2.87%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-05 15:55
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -11.01%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.06%EV -11.26%E -6.74%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%EV -12.09%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-05 15:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.73%EV -12.18%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.04%EV -11.26%E -6.74%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.23%EV -23.82%E -7.33%K -10.58%G +0.000%17.3%2026-04-05 15:55
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -12.09%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-05 15:55
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -12.09%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-05 15:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -12.09%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-05 15:54
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -12.09%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-05 15:54
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -18.03%E -5.15%K -7.21%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.02%EV -11.26%E -6.74%K -16.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.16%EV -12.09%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-05 15:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.92%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.92%1.5%2026-04-05 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.29%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85%1.8%2026-04-05 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.29%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85%1.8%2026-04-05 15:55
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 27.87%1.75I 57.14%NM 44.27%2.78I 35.97%NM 27.87%29.1%2026-04-05 15:55
Smarkets◎4.20I 23.81%NM 16.24%1.01I 99.01%NM 67.52%4.20I 23.81%NM 16.24%46.6%2026-04-05 15:55