The School of Odds
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Al-Nassr v Abha Club

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 2–1 Abha Club

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 82.93%1.21fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -4.03%
Kelly -30.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.75%82.98%83.18%85.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.111.101.1594.34%90.39%90.91%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Abha Club (Visit)

Prediction 6.20%16.12fair odd
EV +5.48%
Edge +0.322%
Kelly +0.343%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.41%6.23%6.18%7.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0014.5115.0017.008.33%6.89%6.67%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.87%9.20fair odd
EV +16.27%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.273%

assuming max odds 10.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.74%10.79%10.64%12.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.187.7510.7014.29%12.23%12.90%9.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 82.93%; Abha Club (Visit): 6.20%; Draw: 10.87%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.20. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.76%EV -9.61%E -8.81%K -106.75%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +5.48%E +0.322%K +0.343%G +0.019%10.70I 9.35%NM 8.74%EV +16.27%E +1.52%K +1.68%G +0.273%7.0%2026-09-09 17:31
Pinnacle🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.13%EV -7.95%E -7.16%K -72.26%G +0.000%15.66I 6.39%NM 6.03%EV -2.83%E -0.181%K -0.193%G +0.000%10.69I 9.35%NM 8.84%EV +16.16%E +1.51%K +1.67%G +0.270%5.8%2026-09-09 16:41
Coral🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.03%EV -4.63%E -4.03%K -30.88%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV -2.20%E -0.245%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.22%EV -4.63%E -4.03%K -30.88%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -19.34%E -1.49%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV -2.20%E -0.245%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 17:36
888sport🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.64%EV -8.78%E -7.98%K -87.78%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -2.20%E -0.245%K -0.275%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 16:45
William Hill🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.64%EV -8.78%E -7.98%K -87.78%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -2.20%E -0.245%K -0.275%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.64%EV -8.78%E -7.98%K -87.78%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -2.20%E -0.245%K -0.275%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.64%EV -8.78%E -7.98%K -87.78%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -2.20%E -0.245%K -0.275%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 16:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.37%EV -9.61%E -8.81%K -106.75%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV +5.48%E +0.322%K +0.343%G +0.019%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -2.20%E -0.245%K -0.275%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 17:41
Winamax (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.08%EV -8.78%E -7.98%K -87.78%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.77%EV -16.24%E -1.20%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -2.20%E -0.245%K -0.275%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 17:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -7.95%E -7.16%K -72.26%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -7.64%E -0.898%K -1.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 17:30
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.78%EV -8.78%E -7.98%K -87.78%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -13.13%E -0.938%K -1.01%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -7.64%E -0.898%K -1.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 17:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.28%EV -9.61%E -8.81%K -106.75%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.17%EV -22.44%E -1.80%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -7.64%E -0.898%K -1.02%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 17:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.50%EV -8.78%E -7.98%K -87.78%G +0.000%14.75I 6.78%NM 6.15%EV -8.48%E -0.575%K -0.617%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.34%EV -13.07%E -1.63%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-09 17:34
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.83%EV -8.78%E -7.98%K -87.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -19.34%E -1.49%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -13.07%E -1.63%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 17:31
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.88%EV -6.29%E -5.57%K -48.39%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV -0.724%E -0.045%K -0.048%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.34%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 17:30
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.12%E -6.36%K -59.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 12:16
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.12%E -6.36%K -59.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 12:16
Grosvenor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.12%E -6.36%K -59.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 12:16
Unibet (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.12%E -6.36%K -59.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 12:16
ATG (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.12%E -6.36%K -59.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 12:16
Svenska Spel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.12%E -6.36%K -59.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 12:16
betfred_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.12%E -6.36%K -59.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -6.93%E -0.462%K -0.495%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 17:31
BoyleSports🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.08%EV -7.95%E -7.16%K -72.26%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -19.34%E -1.49%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 17:31
Sky Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.75%EV -8.78%E -7.98%K -87.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.40%EV -25.54%E -2.13%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-09 17:31
Unibet (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 81.49%EV -10.44%E -9.66%K -130.46%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.77%EV -19.34%E -1.49%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.74%EV -18.50%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-09 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -8.78%E -7.98%K -87.78%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -13.13%E -0.938%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -23.94%E -3.42%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-09 17:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.07%EV -9.61%E -8.81%K -106.75%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.31%EV -13.13%E -0.938%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.62%EV -23.94%E -3.42%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.07%EV -9.61%E -8.81%K -106.75%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.31%EV -13.13%E -0.938%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.62%EV -23.94%E -3.42%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 81.49%EV -12.10%E -11.41%K -201.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.17%EV -13.13%E -0.938%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.34%EV -23.94%E -3.42%K -3.99%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-09 12:16
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.18%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.94%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88%1.2%2026-09-09 17:31
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.07%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.06%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87%1.3%2026-09-09 17:41
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.96%19.01I 5.26%NM 5.18%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86%1.5%2026-09-09 17:41
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.96%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.19%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86%1.5%2026-09-09 17:41
Kalshi◎1.16I 86.21%NM 84.35%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.87%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.78%2.2%2026-09-09 17:31