The School of Odds
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Al-Najma v Al-Taawoun

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 16:12 UTC

Final: Al-Najma 1–2 Al-Taawoun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Najma (Local)

Prediction 17.38%5.75fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -0.603%
Kelly -0.735%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.55%17.46%17.33%18.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.115.105.5620.83%19.58%19.61%17.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Taawoun (Visit)

Prediction 60.83%1.64fair odd
EV +0.984%
Edge +0.593%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.46%60.74%60.79%61.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.501.6669.44%66.08%66.67%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.78%4.59fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.439%
Kelly -0.564%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.78%21.80%21.88%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.064.004.5027.78%24.64%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Najma (Local): 17.38%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 60.83%; Draw: 21.78%. For Al-Taawoun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.66, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.984%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.19I 19.27%NM 18.70%EV -9.78%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.46%EV +0.984%E +0.593%K +1.49%G +0.015%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.84%EV -7.42%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-23 16:09
Pinnacle🎯5.56I 17.99%NM 17.07%EV -3.35%E -0.603%K -0.735%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.22%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.71%EV -4.81%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 16:09
Coral🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -8.74%E -1.67%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.99%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -1.97%E -0.439%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 16:09
Unibet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -9.61%E -1.85%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 16:10
Unibet (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -9.61%E -1.85%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 16:09
Grosvenor🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -9.61%E -1.85%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 16:09
Unibet (NL)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -9.61%E -1.85%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 16:09
Svenska Spel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -9.61%E -1.85%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 16:09
ATG (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -9.61%E -1.85%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 16:09
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -13.09%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -6.92%E -4.53%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -8.51%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 16:08
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -13.09%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -6.92%E -4.53%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -8.51%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 16:10
LeoVegas🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.83%EV -11.35%E -2.23%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.44%EV -6.92%E -4.53%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 16:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.83%EV -11.35%E -2.23%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.44%EV -6.92%E -4.53%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 16:09
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -4.40%E -0.799%K -0.977%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.51%E -2.03%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 16:10
SportsBet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -4.40%E -0.799%K -0.977%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -10.69%E -2.61%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 16:10
Winamax (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -13.09%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -4.15%E -0.944%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 16:09
Tipico (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -4.40%E -0.799%K -0.977%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 16:10
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.09%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-23 16:10
LiveScore Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -13.09%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -15.04%E -3.86%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 16:10
Virgin Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -13.09%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -15.04%E -3.86%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 16:09
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -13.09%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -15.04%E -3.86%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 16:10
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -16.56%E -3.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -15.04%E -3.86%K -5.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 16:09
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -16.56%E -3.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -15.04%E -3.86%K -5.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 16:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -16.56%E -3.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -15.04%E -3.86%K -5.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 16:09
Unibet (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.47%EV -9.61%E -1.85%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.39%EV -9.97%E -6.73%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -6.33%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 16:09
Winamax (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -16.56%E -3.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.51%EV -9.97%E -6.73%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.33%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-23 16:09
PMU (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.61%EV -13.09%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.51%EV -9.97%E -6.73%K -20.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.88%EV -16.13%E -4.19%K -5.66%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-23 16:10
Betclic (FR)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.31%EV -8.74%E -1.67%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.81%EV -10.57%E -7.19%K -22.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.89%EV -5.24%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 16:07
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -13.09%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -12.40%E -8.61%K -28.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -12.87%E -3.22%K -4.29%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-23 16:09
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 17.87%EV -16.56%E -3.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 59.56%EV -12.40%E -8.61%K -28.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.57%EV -17.22%E -4.53%K -6.15%G +0.000%16.6%2026-04-23 16:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.06%EV -13.09%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 59.24%EV -12.40%E -8.61%K -28.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.70%EV -21.58%E -5.99%K -8.30%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-23 16:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.97%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.03%0.9%2026-04-23 16:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.97%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.52%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.51%1.0%2026-04-23 16:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.91%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.42%1.4%2026-04-23 16:10
Kalshi◎5.88I 17.01%NM 16.65%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%2.1%2026-04-23 16:10
Smarkets◎6.00I 16.67%NM 16.29%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.49%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.22%2.3%2026-04-23 16:10