The School of Odds
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Al-Kholood v Al-Qadsiah

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Kholood (Local)

Prediction 15.98%6.26fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -0.439%
Kelly -0.526%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.01%16.10%15.86%17.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.595.506.0920.00%17.88%18.18%16.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Qadsiah (Visit)

Prediction 64.72%1.55fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -5.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.48%64.52%64.93%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.411.5073.53%70.96%70.92%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.30%5.18fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -0.703%
Kelly -0.879%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.64%19.38%19.21%22.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.684.805.0026.67%21.36%20.83%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Kholood (Local): 15.98%; Al-Qadsiah (Visit): 64.72%; Draw: 19.30%. For Al-Kholood (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.09, with an expected value of -2.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯6.09I 16.42%NM 15.93%EV -2.68%E -0.439%K -0.526%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.67%EV -2.92%E -1.94%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%EV -3.52%E -0.703%K -0.879%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 18:54
Pinnacle🎯6.08I 16.45%NM 15.53%EV -2.84%E -0.466%K -0.558%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.12%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.35%EV -5.83%E -1.20%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -4.11%E -0.686%K -0.823%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.01%EV -4.11%E -0.686%K -0.823%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.23%EV -11.98%E -8.81%K -33.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.76%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-07 18:55
William Hill🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.43%EV -7.31%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -16.45%E -3.80%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-07 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -8.11%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.18%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 18:54
Betclic (FR)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -8.11%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.01%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.16%EV -8.34%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-07 18:54
888sport🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -8.11%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -16.45%E -3.80%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -8.11%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -16.45%E -3.80%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -8.11%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -16.45%E -3.80%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 18:55
Unibet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.35%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:54
Grosvenor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.35%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.35%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.35%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.35%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:55
LeoVegas🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.35%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.35%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.35%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:54
Svenska Spel🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.35%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:54
ATG (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.35%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:54
Winamax (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.76%EV -8.74%E -6.20%K -21.32%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -5.45%E -1.11%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-07 18:54
Sky Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.52%EV -11.24%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-07 18:54
SportsBet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.21%EV -11.98%E -8.81%K -33.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -8.34%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-07 18:55
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -12.10%E -2.20%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.21%EV -11.98%E -8.81%K -33.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -8.34%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-07 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.90%EV -15.30%E -2.89%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 64.44%EV -10.04%E -7.22%K -25.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.66%EV -7.38%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-07 18:55
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.60%EV -20.10%E -4.02%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.85%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -13.16%E -2.93%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-07 18:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 16.94%EV -20.10%E -4.02%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 60.48%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.58%EV -27.64%E -7.37%K -10.05%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-07 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎7.14I 14.01%NM 13.74%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.61%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65%1.9%2026-03-07 18:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.60I 15.15%NM 14.86%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.28%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.86%1.9%2026-03-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.60I 15.15%NM 14.86%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.28%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.86%1.9%2026-03-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.60I 15.15%NM 14.85%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.66%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.49%2.0%2026-03-07 18:54
Smarkets◎6.60I 15.15%NM 14.74%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.18%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.08%2.8%2026-03-07 18:55