The School of Odds
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Al-Kholood v Al-Fateh

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Kholood 0–0 Al-Fateh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Kholood (Local)

Prediction 41.43%2.41fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.11%41.35%41.51%42.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3547.62%44.44%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fateh (Visit)

Prediction 32.23%3.10fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.78%32.26%32.14%35.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.752.9740.00%36.83%36.36%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.34%3.80fair odd
EV +2.18%
Edge +0.563%
Kelly +0.758%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%26.38%26.35%28.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.473.503.8833.33%28.80%28.57%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Kholood (Local): 41.43%; Al-Fateh (Visit): 32.23%; Draw: 26.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 42.00%EV -4.29%E -1.86%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.00%EV -5.24%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.00%EV +2.18%E +0.563%K +0.758%G +0.017%3.1%2026-05-21 17:50
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.71%E -2.05%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 17:20
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -2.63%E -1.12%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -16.20%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-21 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -2.63%E -1.12%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -16.20%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-21 17:40
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -2.63%E -1.12%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -16.20%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-21 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -2.63%E -1.12%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -16.20%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-21 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -2.63%E -1.12%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -16.20%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-21 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -2.63%E -1.12%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -16.20%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-21 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -8.85%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-21 17:20
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.07%EV -3.88%E -1.67%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.08%EV -4.27%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -6.51%E -1.83%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-21 17:50
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.18%EV -3.46%E -1.49%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -16.20%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -6.51%E -1.83%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-21 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.18%EV -3.46%E -1.49%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -16.20%E -6.23%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -6.51%E -1.83%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-21 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.12%EV -8.78%E -3.10%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -6.51%E -1.83%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 17:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -8.85%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.83%E -2.24%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-21 17:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.83%E -2.24%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 17:20
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.83%E -2.24%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-21 17:29
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.85%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.83%E -2.24%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-21 17:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.83%E -2.24%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-21 17:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -12.97%E -4.80%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -7.83%E -2.24%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-21 17:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.14%EV -5.53%E -2.43%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -17.81%E -6.98%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-21 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.14%EV -5.53%E -2.43%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -17.81%E -6.98%K -11.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-21 17:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.18%EV -6.78%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.26%EV -19.42%E -7.77%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-21 17:40
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -8.85%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -10.46%E -3.08%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-21 17:30
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -8.85%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-21 17:30
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -12.99%E -6.19%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.82%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-21 17:19
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -8.85%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -15.73%E -4.91%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-21 17:30
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -8.85%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -15.73%E -4.91%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-21 17:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -8.85%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -15.73%E -4.91%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-21 17:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -8.85%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -15.73%E -4.91%K -7.15%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-21 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.02%EV -12.99%E -6.19%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 31.96%EV -15.23%E -5.79%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.02%EV -20.99%E -7.00%K -10.50%G +0.000%19.0%2026-05-21 17:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-05-21 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-05-21 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-05-21 17:50
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.53%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%1.2%2026-05-21 17:50
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-05-21 17:20