Language:English
Al-Ittihad v Neom
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Ittihad (Local)
Prediction 54.61%1.83fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -4.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.34%54.51%54.77%56.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.691.7762.50%59.61%59.35%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Neom (Visit)
Prediction 21.51%4.65fair odd
EV +2.80%
Edge +0.585%
Kelly +0.740%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 4.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.30%21.53%21.32%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.224.204.7826.32%23.71%23.81%20.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.89%4.19fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.95%23.96%23.91%25.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.743.774.0030.30%26.76%26.49%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ittihad (Local): 54.61%; Neom (Visit): 21.51%; Draw: 23.89%. For Neom (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.65. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.82%EV -3.34%E -1.89%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 4.78I 20.92%NM 20.30%EV +2.80%E +0.585%K +0.740%G +0.021% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.88%EV -6.84%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-08 17:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -11.54%E -7.12%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -3.23%E -0.717%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -4.45%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.88%EV -5.53%E -3.20%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.15%EV -3.44%E -0.766%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.98%EV -5.41%E -1.37%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.53%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -5.38%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -9.23%E -2.43%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -6.45%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.23%E -2.43%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -6.45%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.23%E -2.43%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -6.45%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.23%E -2.43%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -6.45%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.23%E -2.43%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -6.45%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.23%E -2.43%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -6.45%E -1.48%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.23%E -2.43%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.53%EV -8.81%E -5.27%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -7.53%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -10.42%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.53%EV -8.81%E -5.27%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -7.53%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -10.42%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.82%EV -9.35%E -5.63%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.41%EV -8.60%E -2.02%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 23.76%EV -8.51%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-08 17:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -4.44%E -2.54%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -9.68%E -2.30%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.84%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -4.44%E -2.54%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -9.68%E -2.30%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.84%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -9.35%E -5.63%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.68%E -2.30%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -6.84%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.41%EV -9.35%E -5.63%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -9.68%E -2.30%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.09%EV -10.42%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -9.90%E -6.00%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -9.68%E -2.30%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -9.23%E -2.43%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.51%EV -10.99%E -6.74%K -17.44%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -9.68%E -2.30%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%EV -12.81%E -3.51%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.51%EV -10.99%E -6.74%K -17.44%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -9.68%E -2.30%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%EV -12.81%E -3.51%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.27%EV -9.35%E -5.63%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.71%EV -10.75%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -10.42%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.35%EV -12.08%E -7.50%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -11.83%E -2.88%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.31%EV -14.01%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -8.81%E -5.27%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -13.98%E -3.49%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -10.42%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.98%E -3.49%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -16.40%E -4.68%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.98%E -3.49%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -16.40%E -4.68%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.98%E -3.49%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -16.40%E -4.68%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-08 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.98%E -3.49%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -16.40%E -4.68%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-08 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 52.75%EV -11.54%E -7.12%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.36%EV -13.98%E -3.49%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.89%EV -21.17%E -6.42%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.07%EV -12.63%E -7.89%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 21.90%EV -15.05%E -3.81%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -14.01%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.81%EV -11.54%E -7.12%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.94%EV -18.28%E -4.81%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.25%EV -10.42%E -2.78%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.09% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27% | 0.5% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.23% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20% | 0.8% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.21% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.81% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99% | 4.2% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.63% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76% | 5.2% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 49.63% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 20.93% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 29.44% | 29.2% | 2026-04-08 18:01 |