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Al-Ittihad v Al-Qadsiah
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Ittihad (Local)
Prediction 29.01%3.45fair odd
EV +0.386%
Edge +0.112%
Kelly +0.157%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.46%28.96%29.01%33.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.993.003.4637.04%33.41%33.33%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Qadsiah (Visit)
Prediction 46.33%2.16fair odd
EV +1.93%
Edge +0.878%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.87%46.33%46.27%47.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.032.042.2054.64%49.18%49.02%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.65%4.06fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -0.792%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.86%24.71%24.72%26.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.613.653.9331.25%27.66%27.40%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ittihad (Local): 29.01%; Al-Qadsiah (Visit): 46.33%; Draw: 24.65%. For Al-Qadsiah (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -18.76%E -6.70%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV +1.93%E +0.878%K +1.61%G +0.031% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -10.01%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-21 17:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -18.76%E -6.70%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV +1.93%E +0.878%K +1.61%G +0.031% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -10.01%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-21 17:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -18.76%E -6.70%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV +1.93%E +0.878%K +1.61%G +0.031% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -10.01%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-21 17:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.10%EV -20.21%E -7.35%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.95%EV +0.543%E +0.250%K +0.464%G +0.003% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -10.01%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-21 17:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 30.21%EV -6.87%E -2.14%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.11%EV -0.384%E -0.179%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.68%EV -3.11%E -0.792%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -0.384%E -0.179%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -7.55%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -0.384%E -0.179%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -8.78%E -2.37%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -14.41%E -4.89%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.72%EV -2.70%E -1.29%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -10.01%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -14.41%E -4.89%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.72%EV -2.70%E -1.29%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -10.01%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -14.41%E -4.89%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.72%EV -2.70%E -1.29%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -10.01%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -21.66%E -8.02%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -2.70%E -1.29%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -13.71%E -3.92%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-21 17:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.89%EV -14.41%E -4.89%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.80%EV -3.63%E -1.74%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -11.25%E -3.12%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -7.55%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -7.55%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.14%EV -17.31%E -6.07%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.50%EV -5.48%E -2.69%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -13.71%E -3.92%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.14%EV -17.31%E -6.07%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.50%EV -5.48%E -2.69%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -13.71%E -3.92%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.33%E -3.67%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -8.78%E -2.37%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -7.33%E -3.67%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.55%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV +0.386%E +0.112%K +0.157%G +0.001% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.74%EV -7.80%E -3.92%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 24.80%EV -5.58%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.28%EV -14.41%E -4.89%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.58%EV -9.19%E -4.69%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -8.78%E -2.37%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -4.26%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -9.65%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.78%E -2.37%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -9.65%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.70%EV -10.01%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.06%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -9.65%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.25%E -3.12%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.31%EV -9.65%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -13.71%E -3.92%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -9.65%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -16.18%E -4.76%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -9.65%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -16.18%E -4.76%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -9.65%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -16.18%E -4.76%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -9.65%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -16.18%E -4.76%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-21 17:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.34%EV -16.44%E -5.71%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.25%EV -11.50%E -6.02%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.41%EV -21.11%E -6.60%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 18.3% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.94%EV -11.51%E -3.77%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.20%EV -13.36%E -7.14%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.86%EV -8.78%E -2.37%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-21 17:47 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.80%EV -12.96%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.21%EV -15.21%E -8.31%K -18.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.00%EV -11.25%E -3.12%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.12% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.53% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35% | 0.2% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 0.8% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.07% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51% | 2.0% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.98% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.54% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48% | 2.1% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.76% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.63% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60% | 2.9% | 2026-05-21 18:00 |